Inflation cooled last month. The 10-year Treasury answered by climbing to 5.30%, its highest since 2002. One number tomorrow morning decides which of those two the market has been reading right.
You read this morning that a real estate fund’s founder was buying with the 10-year above 5.20%, while two semiconductor executives sold nearly $34 million on the same September day. Tonight, let’s take those three trades apart.
Three questions I’ll answer
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What lands at 8:30 tomorrow morning, and why does one jobs number move more money than any other release? |
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Which of this week’s insider trades were decisions about tomorrow — and which were set in motion months ago? |
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What does the number settle before the Fed meets on October 28, and what does it leave open? |
I have never once called a payroll print correctly. What I can do is read the board before it lands, so let’s read it. ↓
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The Only Trade This Week That Was About Tomorrow
At 8:30 tomorrow morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September employment situation report — the monthly count of jobs added outside farming, known on trading desks as nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect 84,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. No scheduled release moves more money, because it is the cleanest monthly read on whether the economy is running hot enough to keep the Federal Reserve raising rates.
Tomorrow, 8:30 a.m. ET
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Consensus, September payrolls
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+84,000
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August payrolls, actual
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+162,000
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ADP private payrolls, September
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+90,000
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Unemployment rate, expected
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4.1%
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Wednesday’s ADP report — a private payroll count published two days ahead of the government’s — came in at 90,000 against a 70,000 estimate, after a revised 36,000 in August. Hiring picked back up. A year ago that would have read as relief. With the Fed having raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 17 and the 10-year at 5.30%, it reads as pressure instead: the stronger the labor market, the longer money stays expensive.
How the money is positioned
Sold — on a schedule
Credo Technology’s COO sold 100,000 shares at about $206 on September 25, a $20.6 million sale. Arista Networks’ CEO sold 62,622 shares at $211.40 the same day, worth $13.24 million. Both ran through Rule 10b5-1 plans — standing sale instructions filed in advance so an insider cannot trade on what they know. Credo’s plan was adopted on April 15. Arista’s was adopted on November 14, 2025. Neither sale was a decision made this week.
Bought — by hand
Ramin Kamfar, who founded Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund, bought 480,770 shares on September 21 and 23. He then bought 425,590 more on September 28, 29 and 30, at $12.50, $12.60 and $12.61, taking his position to 906,360 shares. Those are open-market purchases rather than a plan, and the last of them was made on Wednesday with the 10-year at a 24-year high. Real estate is the sector a high long rate punishes most directly.
That contrast is the position, and it is worth being exact about it. Prediction markets priced a quarter-point increase at the October 28 meeting near 34% this morning, against roughly two-in-three odds the Fed holds. Tomorrow’s report is the last major labor reading before that meeting. A print above consensus hands the hike case its evidence; a clear miss gives rate-sensitive assets their first argument for relief in weeks. What it cannot settle is whether Kamfar is early or wrong — that takes quarters, not a morning.
NATE’S TAKE
I have sat through a lot of Thursday nights like this one, and the trap is always the same: reading every insider filing as a view on the week’s big event. Most of them are not. The two largest sales on my desk this week were written into plans before anyone knew what September’s labor market would look like — one of them back in November. The purchase was not. That is the read: not that Kamfar is right, but that he is the only one of the three who made a choice with tomorrow in view. I will be watching the 10-year more closely than the headline number.
— Nate Fowler
After the Bell · Evening Special Edition
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DISCLOSURE: |
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