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Apple Delivers Strong Quarter, but Soft Guidance Sparks Selloff
Posted On Jul 31, 2026 by Ian Cooper
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) delivered better-than-expected financial results for its latest quarter, but that wasn’t good enough for Wall Street, which sent the tech giant down $25 in pre-market.
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The company reported $109.42 billion in revenue for its fiscal third quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $108.65 billion. Strong sales of iPhones, Mac computers and wearable devices helped drive the results.
However, AAPL also warned that revenue growth will slow in the current quarter.
The company expects growth of 9% to 11%, below analysts’ forecast of 12%. That outlook sent Apple shares down nearly 8% after the earnings report.
It's a radical "light-speed" device that's turning AI as we know it into "Accelerated AI", making it 100 times faster and 100 times more energy efficient.
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Apple’s biggest products continued to perform well.
Revenue from the iPhone, Mac and wearables businesses all came in above expectations. But not every part of the company had a strong quarter. Sales from Apple’s Services division, which includes iCloud, Apple Music and the App Store, came in slightly below expectations. iPad revenue also missed Wall Street’s estimates.
However, while the company says demand for its products remains strong, the company can’t make enough devices to keep up. Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh said shortages of important components are limiting production, especially for the iPhone. Higher memory prices are also increasing Apple’s costs, putting pressure on profit margins.
Analysts are Still Bullish
JPMorgan believes the company’s biggest challenges are temporary. Supply shortages may delay sales rather than eliminate them altogether, meaning AAPL could recover some of that revenue in future quarters.
And despite lowering some price targets, most Wall Street firms continue to recommend buying AAPL. Morgan Stanley expects near-term pressure but believes future product launches could lift shares. The firm has an overweight rating on the stock, with a price target of $340 a share. The firm also noted that:
“The headwinds in relation to supply and costs are combining with incremental pressure from FX headwinds into the Sep-Q to lead to an F4Q (Sep-Q) revenue and underlying gross margin (excluding tariff refunds) outlook, both of which are below our and Street expectations. However, in thinking about the long-term ramifications of the above headwinds, we expect: 1) supply constraints to primarily push out revenue realization from the strong demand cycle into the future quarters rather than being lost revenue; and 2) FX headwinds are likely to turn more benign starting the Dec-Q if current rates hold,” as quoted by CNBC.
Goldman Sachs has a buy rating, with a price target of $360. The firm, as quoted by CNBC, said that, “Although results and the forward quarter guidance clearly disappointed, we think sentiment should improve over the next 1-2 quarters as (1) price increases (Mac, iPad, and eventually iPhone) and price/mix from premium products drive upside to revenue and mitigate margin headwinds (though acknowledging continued cost inflation); (2) volume declines prove better-than-expected as affordability measures (e.g., Apple Upgrade program), new product innovation (e.g., Siri AI, new Mac, iPad, home products), and education & enterprise share gains help mitigate price-volume elasticity; and (3) Services growth stabilizes from increased demand for iCloud+ (tokens) and AppleCare+ (product momentum).”
Citi expects the company’s next iPhone launch and expanded Siri AI features to become important growth drivers. The firm has a buy rating, with a $365 price target.
Bank of America says Apple’s Services business still has plenty of room to grow, especially as the company introduces more AI-powered features. The firm has a buy rating, with a price target of $380 a share.
The Bottom Line For Apple
AAPL delivered a solid quarter, beating revenue expectations and showing strong demand for many of its products. But investors were more focused on slower growth, supply shortages, and uncertainty surrounding Apple’s AI strategy.
While the next few quarters could remain challenging, most analysts believe the company’s long-term outlook is still strong. Upcoming iPhone launches, new AI features, and improving supply conditions could help the company regain momentum.
Today’s editorial pick for you
Did You Love the Exxon Mobil Trade? There’s Still Time to Play Big Oil
Posted On Jul 29, 2026 by Joshua Enomoto
It may be an obvious trade but with conflict still raging in Iran, oil stocks are back in vogue, driving up stalwarts like Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX). While these names are still interesting, I’m more interested in the speculative opportunity behind major energy giantPetrobras (NYSE: PBR). Thanks to its low share price and wild market movements, there’s a chance for late-to-the-game options traders to scalp serious profits.
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What’s the premise behind my bullishness for PBR stock and the oil market in general? It’s not simply that the Iran crisis is back on the geopolitical frontline. Sure, that is a fundamental factor but it’s also a well-known, well-digested news item. Reading yesterday’s article from Reuters is not going to provide you a trading edge today.
Instead, the premise is market structure; specifically, how certain structures signal a probability of an upcoming transition. Philosophically, I rely heavily on Markov chains. The question is as follows: given a particular market structure (or behavioral state), what is the probability of it transitioning to another, different structure?
Again, I don’t really care about the fundamentals or the technical — they provide some descriptive context of how a ticker like PBR stock ended up where it is. But I don’t believe that such knowledge inherently provides alpha. Frankly, it’s more like delusions of grandeur. Think about it: why would reading yesterday’s news or drawing arbitrary lines on a chart consistently lead to exploitable mispricings?
Instead, my philosophy revolves around the concept that future market returns represent an independent variable. What’s my evidence? Well, consider the opposite argument. The assumption that asset returns are completely Independent and Identically Distributed (I.I.D.) — or a pure, memoryless random walk — is fundamentally refuted by theoretical econometrics and empirical market data.
In other words, what happens tomorrow depends on what happens today. That’s the core Markovian philosophy when applied to the financial markets. It’s here that I’m in full agreement, actually, with fundamental and technical analysts.
But the difference is that I use an algorithm to measure the outcomes of these dependent variables. Enticingly, my algorithm points to a potential bullish opportunity in Petrobras stock.
President Trump owns up to $5 million in shares of this AI company (not Nvidia or SpaceX). He's strongly endorsed its leadership and products. And he just awarded it with a nearly $10 billion Pentagon contract. No wonder one legendary fund manager says it could become the cornerstone of your retirement.
In earlier StockEarnings.com articles, I made specific trading ideas for Exxon Mobil and Petrobras. For the former, I discussed the opportunity present in the 138/141 bull call spread expiring July 31, while for the latter, I focused on the 17.50/18 bull spread expiring July 31.
Unless the floor decides to drop out, those trades are well on their way to full profitability. What’s compelling is that I used the exact same model to formulate those options strategies. This doesn’t mean that my model is the absolute truth because that’s not true — I get things wrong all the time. However, what you see is what you get with me. Whatever the trading idea, it’s going to come from the same methodology.
Indeed, the main reason why I’m interested in Petrobras stock at this hour is that the security just flashed an exploitable trading signal. In the last 10 weeks, the number of up weeks and down weeks was split 50/50. However, the overall slope was negative across the 10-week period, which represents a unique situation.
Since January 2019, there have been 375 rolling 10-week sequences. Of this figure, 63 comprised of the above 5-5-D quantitative signal. Here’s where the fun part comes in. If we were to look at where PBR stock may end up over the next 10 weeks using an aggregate of all quant sequences, the expected forward distribution would land between $18.95 and $19.30 (assuming a starting price of $19).
With probability density only peaking at $19.08 or thereabouts, the expected performance when buying PBR stock randomly offers practically no advantage. When you factor in transaction costs, you would risk a negative expectancy over time.
However, when you buy PBR stock after it flashes the 5-5-D sequence, you may expect a forward 10-week distribution between $18.50 and $20.40, with probability density peaking at $19.48. That’s not much better than the aggregate baseline but keep in mind that the positive variance isn’t orderly and linear.
Specifically, on the fourth week following the flashing of the above signal, the median endpoint is a move up of approximately 4.74%. That would put PBR stock at the equivalent of around the $19.90 price point at the Aug. 21 expiration date.
Putting Two and Two Together
So, assuming you believe the above inductive model, there’s an enticing argument to consider buying the 19.50/20 bull call spread expiring Aug. 21. Attractively, the net debit per spread is only $20 so you can penny-pinch your exposure to this trade. Should Petrobras stock rise through the second-leg strike ($20) at expiration, the maximum payout is 150%.
What does that mean? You pay $20 for the bull spread and if PBR stock hits $20 on Aug. 21, you collect $30 of profit.
That may sound too good to be true, and this is where Wall Street comes into play. Currently, this spread’s breakeven price is $19.70, which is considered a low-probability affair. In fact, the market assigns a probability of profit of only 36.6%. It’s here that many, if not most, conservative traders ignore the deal.
Nevertheless, the core mathematical tension is that this probability stems from the Black-Scholes model, which assumes that future stock outcomes are independent variables. I’m not convinced by this assumption because the overwhelming evidence (in my opinion) points to future returns being dependent variables; that is, the future outcome depends on or is heavily influenced by immediate prior outcomes.
As a quick example, if a security falls 10% in a day, it’s most likely going to react differently than if said security jumped 10% instead. Black-Scholes, as a risk-neutral, lognormal environment, structurally treats both circumstances the same, thereby exposing options priced using this model to potential distortions.
That’s actually my argument, that the options pricing for PBR stock is distorted in your favor. Of the 63 times that the 5-5-D signal has flashed, the ticker has exceeded the $19.70 breakeven price a total of 32 times. Therefore, the conditional, observed probability of profit could be 50.8%. If true, you’re getting over 1,400 basis points of free odds.
P.S. Stocks tied to this “light-speed” device already surged 133%, 217%, and even 320% — in a few short months. But it’s just getting started. Click here before the mainstream catches on.
Friday's Bonus Article
IBM Just Had Its Worst Day Ever—What Earnings Must Prove
Authored by Chris Markoch. Published: 7/21/2026.
Key Points
IBM shares fell more than 25% after the company pre-reported weaker-than-expected Q2 2026 revenue and earnings ahead of its official July 22 report.
IBM faces a securities-fraud inquiry into whether it exaggerated its sales pipeline before the preannouncement, raising questions about its forecasting credibility.
Investors will also watch for progress on IBM's quantum computing roadmap and reassurance that cash flow can sustain its 30-year dividend growth streak.
IBM (NYSE: IBM) pre-reported its Q2 2026 earnings on July 14, and investors punished the stock, sending it down more than 25% in a single session—the worst one-day decline in the company’s storied history.
At a time when there are many concerns about the valuation of technology stocks, bad news in any form is likely to be punished.
The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
While the headline numbers shouldn’t change from the preview, this will be an opportunity for Big Blue to provide forward guidance and add context to the disappointing revenue and earnings figures.
There may not be much IBM can say on the conference call to reverse the stock’s immediate decline. Investors have already sent a clear message: They are not confident in IBM right now. But a look at the chart shows a stock that’s made sharp moves up and down over the last 12 months. IBM is a volatile trade, to be sure, but is it a poor investment?
That growth is far below the year-over-year gains the company posted in the three prior quarters.
A similar pattern emerged in the company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS), which IBM says will be $2.93. That’s below estimates of $3.01 and only a slight improvement over the $2.80 it recorded in Q2 2025.
As for why, management said many of its customers reprioritized their capital spending in June, locking in prices on servers, storage and memory ahead of anticipated price increases. That makes sense in an AI infrastructure trade that has seen money flow from one sector to another and back again.
But what comes next? The company needs to answer three questions when it reports official earnings on July 22 to begin rebuilding investor confidence.
1. Did IBM Overstate Its Sales Pipeline Before Earnings?
IBM is facing a securities-fraud inquiry into whether it exaggerated its sales pipeline ahead of the July 14 preannouncement. These preliminary inquiries do not establish wrongdoing, but they raise the stakes for the upcoming conference call beyond a simple explanation that customer spending was delayed.
If management can’t show that the shortfall was truly a timing issue—deals pushed from Q2 into Q3—rather than deals that were never as solid as the pipeline suggested, the stock’s problem may go beyond this quarter and raise questions about IBM’s own forecasting.
Investors will be listening for specific answers. How much of the missed revenue has since been recovered, and what is IBM doing to improve its reporting of pipeline strength going forward?
2. Can IBM's Quantum Computing Business Drive Future Growth?
Quantum computing is in its early stages, but IBM has been one of the early beneficiaries of the U.S. government’s $2 billion investment in the quantum space. The company received approximately $1 billion. The idea of the government taking a stake, directly or indirectly, in private enterprise may be distasteful to some investors, but that support signals that quantum manufacturing is a strategic U.S. priority.
The challenge for IBM will be to show investors that it’s making progress toward its milestones. In response to the U.S. Commerce Department’s letter of intent, IBM said it would match the government’s investment dollar for dollar. That commitment will help launch Anderon, a new standalone IBM company expected to become America’s first pure-play quantum foundry.
IBM followed that up in June by committing more than $10 billion of its own capital to the broader quantum roadmap. IBM has said it expects to demonstrate the first example of “quantum advantage” this year. To achieve quantum advantage, a quantum computer, combined with classical supercomputing, must solve a real scientific problem faster or more accurately than classical methods alone. The company has pointed to early proof points already in hand, including work with the Cleveland Clinic modeling a protein with more than 12,000 atoms.
Beyond that, the roadmap becomes more technical and longer-dated: A processor called Kookaburra, due later this year, is meant to combine quantum memory with processing logic for the first time, feeding into Cockatoo in 2027 and, eventually, the fault-tolerant Starling system targeted for 2029.
IBM has more than 340 organizations running workloads on its quantum systems today, but generating commercial revenue isn’t the same as running workloads. On July 22, the key question will be whether IBM can point to anything closer to actual dollars—a paying customer, licensing deal or foundry contract.
3. Is IBM's Dividend Safe After the Stock Sell-Off?
Restructuring takes time. IBM is still trying to convince investors that it can pivot from a hardware player to a significant name in the cloud computing sector while managing the volatility of its legacy infrastructure businesses.
As the company’s current numbers show, that’s still a work in progress.
The company raised its dividend to $1.69 per share on April 22 alongside its Q1 results, and an additional increase is not expected this year.
But investors who own the stock for income will want to hear that the company’s cash flow will be sufficient to maintain the current dividend and continue raising it in the future.
