It felt like a comeback… just a very selective one. |
Chips finally snapped an eight-session losing streak, Amazon jumped 5%, Tesla gained 3.8%, and the Nasdaq climbed more than 1%. |
Meanwhile, seven of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors still finished lower. |
⚡ Closing Bell:
→ Dow Jones: ▼ 0.07% to 51,966.03 › Blue chips never really joined the tech rebound.
→ S&P 500: ▲ 0.41% to 7,690.73 › Consumer discretionary and tech carried the index higher.
→ Nasdaq: ▲ 1.11% to 26,430.89 › Chip and AI-linked names did most of the lifting. |
The semiconductor index gained 1.6%, ending its longest losing streak since October 2008. |
That eight-day slide had wiped out about 15.7%. |
So Monday’s bounce had a little “enough already” energy to it. |
✓ Amazon did plenty of the heavy lifting after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick, while Intel rose 2.4% after a JPMorgan upgrade. |
However, the broader market wasn’t exactly celebrating. |
Utilities fell 2%, real estate dropped 1.2%, and declining stocks outnumbered advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. |
The 10-year Treasury yield also climbed back to 5.14%. |
So yes, AI bounced. |
Most of the market just didn’t bother RSVP’ing. |
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#TRUTH:
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Good Dog… |
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Datadog caught a nice bounce Monday. |
Shares rose 5.4% after Bernstein upgraded the stock to Outperform and raised its price target to $350. |
The timing helped. |
Software stocks were already rebounding after last week’s selloff, and lower Treasury yields took some pressure off high-multiple names. |
✓ The more interesting part was Bernstein’s AI read. |
The firm pointed to alternative data showing enterprise token consumption at major AI labs grew at least 50% quarter over quarter. |
That matters for Datadog because more AI usage means more infrastructure to monitor. |
More compute. |
More queries. |
More things that can break at 2 a.m. |
✓ It also helps repair an older concern. |
Bernstein had previously downgraded the stock after Datadog’s largest AI customer reportedly cut roughly $100 million in annual recurring revenue. |
Now, stronger AI activity appears to be filling some of that gap. |
Datadog is already up nearly 96% this year, though shares still sit about 11% below their October high. |
So Monday’s move wasn’t just a software rebound. |
It was a reminder that AI spending can create bills for Datadog too. |
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Fast Pass… |
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Palantir found another way to make itself useful in Washington. |
Shares rose 4.4% Monday after Knox Systems announced a partnership designed to help commercial software reach highly secure federal environments faster. |
✓ The appeal is pretty simple. |
Knox says it can help software companies get FedRAMP authorization in 90 days or less, while Palantir already has the federal accreditations needed to deploy into sensitive government systems, including IL5 environments. |
Put the two together, and outside software vendors get a cleaner route into agencies that are usually difficult to sell into. |
✓ That makes Palantir more of an on-ramp than just a software vendor. |
Its U.S. government revenue already rose 90% year over year to $809 million in Q2. |
And Wall Street expects total revenue to climb from $4.48 billion in 2025 to $8.22 billion this year. |
No financial terms were disclosed, so there’s nothing here yet that changes those estimates. |
The next real test comes with earnings, where management has guided to $2.16 billion to $2.164 billion in Q3 revenue. |
For now, the partnership adds one more layer to Palantir’s government moat. |
The easier it becomes to enter through Palantir, the harder Palantir becomes to go around. |
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Shopping for Debt… |
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Walmart is doing a little financing of its own. |
The retailer is looking to raise at least $2.5 billion in the U.S. bond market, while also exploring a debut Canadian-dollar offering worth at least C$3.5 billion. |
✓ That would be a notable shift for a company that usually taps the bond market just once a year. |
Walmart already raised $4.25 billion in April. |
Now it’s back as spending ramps up. |
Analysts expect Walmart to spend a record $29 billion next year as it adds stores, expands e-commerce and automates more of the business. |
The company also has about $3.3 billion of bonds maturing next year. |
✓ The Canadian deal would give Walmart a new pool of investors. |
Alphabet and Amazon have also tapped Canada’s bond market this year, using it to diversify funding sources. |
For Walmart, the timing is pretty straightforward. |
More stores, more automation, more digital infrastructure. |
And apparently, a bigger tab to go with it.
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Gains & Pains: |
Gains:
→ Cleveland-Cliffs CLF ( ▲ 16.34% ) › Surged after the steelmaker beat third-quarter profit estimates.
→ Western Digital WDC ( ▲ 6.09% ) › Led the S&P 500 as tech and AI-related names bounced back.
→ Sandisk SNDK ( ▲ 5.53% ) › Joined the rebound in memory and storage stocks.
→ Datadog DDOG ( ▲ 5.36% ) › Rallied with software and other growth names.
→ Amazon AMZN ( ▲ 4.98% ) › Jumped after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick.
→ Palantir PLTR ( ▲ 4.37% ) › Caught a bid as investors moved back into AI-linked growth stocks.
→ Tesla TSLA ( ▲ 3.76% ) › Helped lift consumer discretionary as the broader tech trade rebounded. |
😬 Pains:
→ Mosaic MOS ( ▼ 4.78% ) › Finished as the S&P 500’s biggest decliner.
→ NRG Energy NRG ( ▼ 4.21% ) › Fell as utilities were the market’s weakest sector.
→ Ameriprise Financial AMP ( ▼ 4.07% ) › Dropped as financial stocks lagged the broader market.
→ Eversource Energy ES ( ▼ 3.55% ) › Slid with the utilities group as Treasury yields moved higher.
→ Honeywell Aerospace HONA ( ▼ 3.33% ) › Fell as industrial stocks broadly struggled.
→ Flex (FLEX): ▼ 3.2% › Bucked the broader tech rebound and finished among the day’s biggest losers.
→ Builders FirstSource BLDR ( ▼ 3.11% ) › Fell alongside housing-related stocks as the 10-year yield climbed to 5.14%. |
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Escapes: |
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Commodities Check : ✔️ |
→ WTI Crude: ▲ 2.2% to $103.66/barrel › Reversed earlier losses after renewed attacks in the Middle East revived supply concerns.
→ Brent Crude: ▼ 0.3% to $109.55/barrel › Finished slightly lower even as geopolitical tensions kept prices near five-month highs.
→ Gold: ▼ 0.4% to $4,147.87/oz › Slipped as the dollar firmed and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.14%.
→ Silver: ▲ 0.6% to $57.37/oz › Moved higher despite pressure from elevated yields.
→ Platinum: ▲ 1.0% to $1,646.30/oz › Outperformed the broader precious-metals complex.
→ Palladium: ▲ 0.9% to $1,122/oz › Also finished higher.
→ Arabica Coffee: ▲ 3.3% to $3.157/lb › Hit a one-month high as exchange inventories stayed near multi-decade lows.
→ Cocoa: ▲ 0.7% to $5,687/ton › Rose as dry weather in Ivory Coast raised concerns about next year’s crop.
→ Raw Sugar: ▼ 1.3% to 20.57¢/lb › Pulled back after recently reaching a 19-month high. |
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The stinger: |
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Disclaimer: |
This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills. |
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