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The Tech IPO Set to Be 41X Bigger Than the Google, Microsoft, and Amazon IPOs Combined |
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Nvidia, Google, Amazon are all loading up on shares. |
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🧪 The 2027 COLA arithmetic, before it lands |
A quiet evening on the tape. Retirement rules tonight — specifically, the announcement number and the take-home number, and the gap between them that always shows up in October. |
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The 2027 Social Security COLA lands in October, and the current forecast puts it near 3.6% — the largest raise retirees have seen in four years. On the average retired-worker benefit, that translates to roughly $75 more each month, taking the typical check to about $2,159. That is the headline number, and it is the number that will appear in every article next spring. |
It is not the number that lands in the bank account. The Medicare Trustees Report projected the standard Part B premium at $209.50 for 2027, up $6.60 from this year’s $202.90 — a deduction that comes out automatically before the deposit is seen. On the arithmetic, $75 in cost-of-living meets $6.60 in Medicare, and about $68 lands. The hold-harmless provision keeps the Part B increase from exceeding a beneficiary’s COLA in dollar terms, but it does not stop the premium from eating into the raise itself. The take-home number is smaller than the announcement number, and always has been. |
What actually matters between now and October 14, when the official COLA is calculated from the July, August and September CPI-W averages, is not what the market does. It is what a household plan looks like at roughly 3.3% inflation on the cost side and 3.6% on the income side. That is what a retirement plan is supposed to survive, and most of them do, quietly, because the arithmetic was already there. The 2022 COLA was 8.7% — the highest since 1981 — and it did not fully solve the problem it was named for, because inflation over that stretch had already run through most of the raise. The point of the calendar is not the announcement. It is the ledger you build around it. |
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Seven private companies analysts are watching before they list. |
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Every line below comes off the dividend feed. |
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💵 INCOME WATCH |
Declared: quiet day on the declarations front for the watchlist — no fresh raises or new declarations landed yesterday or today. |
Ex-dates ahead (next five sessions): |
• NEE — ex Friday Aug 28 at $0.6232, declared Jul 30, payable Sep 15. |
• O — ex Monday Aug 31 at $0.271 monthly, declared Aug 18, payable Sep 15. |
Yield check: 10-year Treasury at 4.65% on Tuesday’s close against SCHD’s forward annual rate of $1.047, running near a 2.99% yield. The bond-side coupon still tops the income-ETF payer by a comfortable margin. |
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One of the names in this readership deserves a paragraph of its own tonight. |
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🧺 THE STEADY · KO |
Coca-Cola has raised the dividend for 63 consecutive years — a Dividend King on the record since 1963. The recent cadence is on file in one- and two-cent steps: $0.44 → $0.46 → $0.485 → $0.51 → $0.53 across the last five raises. The current forward rate is $2.12 a share, which has been running near a 2.35% yield — below the 10-year at 4.65%, well above what the tape usually calls generous. The stock closed Wednesday at $90.08, in the upper half of a 52-week range of $65.35 to $92.49, with a payout ratio around 47%. A defensive-consumer holding, priced as one. |
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And the day calendar for tomorrow. |
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📅 TOMORROW’S CALENDAR |
8:30 AM ET — Personal Income & Spending release carrying the July PCE detail already reported; watch for revisions to the spending line more than the price line. |
10:00 AM ET — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address; the language on the labor-market-versus-inflation trade heading into the Sept 16 FOMC decision is what a diversified holder listens for. |
Session close — NextEra Energy goes ex-dividend at $0.6232 a share, payable Sept 15. |
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When the COLA is announced each October, do you rework the household budget on that number, or wait for the January check to see what actually lands? Write me back — every note gets read. |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
P.S. (From Good Morning Alerts) Good Morning Alerts is the morning version of this desk — earlier, shorter, pointed at the session ahead. Read the morning version. |
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