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The ten-year Treasury yield sat at 4.63% on Tuesday and went out above 4.70% on Thursday. That is not a resolution. That is a level being tested in real time, with the argument still open on both sides of it.
So this one does not get a grade. It gets a structure.
STILL IN PLAY — THE 4.70% TEST
The level:4.70% on the ten-year. Tuesday's 4.63% is the reference point the week started from.
How it held Monday to Thursday: yields rose across a week in which the Dow set three record closes. The two-year never came down to meet the equity story, holding near 4.27% into Thursday.
The invalidation: a settle back beneath 4.63% takes the pressure off and puts the burden back on the people arguing the rally was borrowed.
What eventually settles it: August CPI on Friday, September 11, then the FOMC on September 15 and 16.
The reason this one is worth carrying into next week rather than closing out is that it did not move on an opinion. It moved on prints.
📊 BY THE NUMBERS
199,000 Initial jobless claims, against 198,000 the prior week. No deterioration to price.
+44,000 ADP private payrolls for July — the smallest monthly gain in six months.
4.27% The two-year into Thursday. It priced no relief at any point this week.
Those three figures are the whole tension. Claims say the labour market is fine, which supports higher-for-longer. ADP at 44,000 says hiring is decelerating, which is the first argument the other way anyone has had in a while. And the two-year, which has the least patience of anything on the board, sided with claims.
Two clocks, one level. The data clock runs through the prints between now and mid-September. The positioning clock runs faster, because a rally that produced three record closes in one week is carrying people who were not in it a fortnight ago, and those are the first to leave if financing costs keep climbing.
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The Magnificent Seven Will Not Lead Forever
After a volatile first quarter, our analysts think the rotation is already underway. This report names the seven they believe could lead the back half of 2026 instead. Free report. Not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Here is the part that makes this framing hold up regardless of what any single session does. The level has been tested all week from below and it has not broken in either direction with conviction. If it holds above, the record week reads as the top of a range and the rotation into cyclicals was a trade, not a cycle. If it settles back under 4.63%, the same record week reads as the start of something with room to run.
|It did not move on an opinion. It moved on prints.
What to watch: the two-year, not the ten. It has been the least sentimental instrument on the board all week, and it will flinch before the long end does if the data turns. Invalidation stays where it was: a settle beneath 4.63%.
If the ten-year settles back under 4.63%, does this record week get a second act, or was that the whole move? Send it my way.
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Why Sandisk Stock Has Surged More Than 2,000% in a Year
Posted On Jul 31, 2026 by Ian Cooper
The last time I spoke about Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), I said, “As AI data centers rapidly expand across the globe, demand for high-performance storage solutions is surging, putting companies like Sandisk in a strong position for long-term growth. With analysts at major firms issuing bullish price targets, tightening NAND supply, and artificial intelligence infrastructure spending accelerating, Sandisk is emerging as a top technology stock to watch in 2026.”
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That’s a big part of why the stock is up more than 2,000% in a year.
Larry Benedict — who beat the S&P 500 by 18X in 2025 and made clients $95M during the 2008 crisis — says Trump installing a new Fed chair is triggering the most significant shift in U.S. markets in nearly 20 years. Readers had chances at 62% in 2020, 117% under a month in 2022, 89% in 17 days after Jackson Hole. One ticker at the center.
In addition, we also have to consider that artificial intelligence will continue to drive massive demand for data centers, which, in turn, will fuel further demand for NAND.
You see, as long as there’s demand for artificial intelligence and data centers, there will be substantial demand for NAND. We also have to consider that these AI developments are happening with a supply backdrop that was never really designed to keep up with the demand it’s creating. That’s why NAND supply growth will remain limited in the immediate term.
In addition, consider this.
There are about 4,000 operational data centers in the U.S. right now. An additional 1,500 to 3,000 are being planned or under construction. According to Pew Research, the South has 754 planned data centers. The Midwest has 419 planned. The West has 277 planned, and the Northeast has about 106 planned. Globally, there are about 10,807. All need NAND, which creates even more opportunity.
AI Is Creating Significant Demand for Memory
When people think about AI, they often think about companies like Nvidia that make powerful graphics chips. But AI systems need much more than processors. They also need massive amounts of memory to store and move data quickly.
This is where Sandisk comes in. The company makes NAND flash memory, a type of storage used in solid-state drives (SSDs), laptops, smartphones, data centers, and AI servers. As AI applications become larger and more complex, companies need more high-speed storage than ever before. That surge in demand has made memory chips much more valuable.
A Memory Shortage Helped Prices Rise
Demand is only one side of the story. At the same time, memory manufacturers have been careful not to flood the market with too much supply. After several difficult years, companies reduced production and focused on improving profits instead of simply making more chips.
Now demand has returned much faster than expected.
This has created a supply shortage, allowing companies like Sandisk to charge higher prices for their memory products. Analysts believe the tight supply could continue for several years if AI demand keeps growing.
Investors Believe AI Spending Is Just Beginning
Big technology companies continue to spend billions of dollars building AI data centers. Every new AI server requires large amounts of memory and storage. If AI investment continues for years, companies like Sandisk could continue seeing strong sales growth.
Wall Street expects the company’s earnings to grow dramatically as demand remains strong. That optimism has encouraged many investors to keep buying the stock despite its already impressive gains.
The Bottom Line For Sandisk
Sandisk’s strong performance has been driven by an unstoppable AI boom, which has dramatically increased demand for memory chips. Limited supply has pushed prices higher. Those factors have now sent the stock more than 2,000% higher in just one year. For long-term investors, the company’s future will likely depend less on its incredible past performance and more on whether demand for AI memory continues growing over the next several years.
Today’s editorial pick for you
Apple Delivers Strong Quarter, but Soft Guidance Sparks Selloff
Posted On Jul 31, 2026 by Ian Cooper
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) delivered better-than-expected financial results for its latest quarter, but that wasn’t good enough for Wall Street, which sent the tech giant down $25 in pre-market.
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The company reported $109.42 billion in revenue for its fiscal third quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $108.65 billion. Strong sales of iPhones, Mac computers and wearable devices helped drive the results.
However, AAPL also warned that revenue growth will slow in the current quarter.
The company expects growth of 9% to 11%, below analysts’ forecast of 12%. That outlook sent Apple shares down nearly 8% after the earnings report.
Apple’s biggest products continued to perform well.
Revenue from the iPhone, Mac and wearables businesses all came in above expectations. But not every part of the company had a strong quarter. Sales from Apple’s Services division, which includes iCloud, Apple Music and the App Store, came in slightly below expectations. iPad revenue also missed Wall Street’s estimates.
However, while the company says demand for its products remains strong, the company can’t make enough devices to keep up. Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh said shortages of important components are limiting production, especially for the iPhone. Higher memory prices are also increasing Apple’s costs, putting pressure on profit margins.
Analysts are Still Bullish
JPMorgan believes the company’s biggest challenges are temporary. Supply shortages may delay sales rather than eliminate them altogether, meaning AAPL could recover some of that revenue in future quarters.
And despite lowering some price targets, most Wall Street firms continue to recommend buying AAPL. Morgan Stanley expects near-term pressure but believes future product launches could lift shares. The firm has an overweight rating on the stock, with a price target of $340 a share. The firm also noted that:
“The headwinds in relation to supply and costs are combining with incremental pressure from FX headwinds into the Sep-Q to lead to an F4Q (Sep-Q) revenue and underlying gross margin (excluding tariff refunds) outlook, both of which are below our and Street expectations. However, in thinking about the long-term ramifications of the above headwinds, we expect: 1) supply constraints to primarily push out revenue realization from the strong demand cycle into the future quarters rather than being lost revenue; and 2) FX headwinds are likely to turn more benign starting the Dec-Q if current rates hold,” as quoted by CNBC.
Goldman Sachs has a buy rating, with a price target of $360. The firm, as quoted by CNBC, said that, “Although results and the forward quarter guidance clearly disappointed, we think sentiment should improve over the next 1-2 quarters as (1) price increases (Mac, iPad, and eventually iPhone) and price/mix from premium products drive upside to revenue and mitigate margin headwinds (though acknowledging continued cost inflation); (2) volume declines prove better-than-expected as affordability measures (e.g., Apple Upgrade program), new product innovation (e.g., Siri AI, new Mac, iPad, home products), and education & enterprise share gains help mitigate price-volume elasticity; and (3) Services growth stabilizes from increased demand for iCloud+ (tokens) and AppleCare+ (product momentum).”
Citi expects the company’s next iPhone launch and expanded Siri AI features to become important growth drivers. The firm has a buy rating, with a $365 price target.
Bank of America says Apple’s Services business still has plenty of room to grow, especially as the company introduces more AI-powered features. The firm has a buy rating, with a price target of $380 a share.
The Bottom Line For Apple
AAPL delivered a solid quarter, beating revenue expectations and showing strong demand for many of its products. But investors were more focused on slower growth, supply shortages, and uncertainty surrounding Apple’s AI strategy.
While the next few quarters could remain challenging, most analysts believe the company’s long-term outlook is still strong. Upcoming iPhone launches, new AI features, and improving supply conditions could help the company regain momentum.
