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The Biggest IPO Winners of 2026 Haven't Gone Public Yet |
Wall Street is already looking beyond today's biggest winners. Our analysts uncovered seven private companies they believe could headline the next IPO wave—including leaders in AI, fintech, and digital infrastructure. |
See the names before the rest of the market catches on. |
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☁️ Oracle's $638 billion question lands Thursday |
A record backlog, a cash flow statement bleeding to build it, and a Thursday print to settle which one wins. |
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Oracle reports Thursday after the close, and it walks in carrying the largest backlog in enterprise software. Remaining performance obligations, the revenue it has contracted but not yet delivered, stood at 638 billion dollars at the last count. That is work already sold, not a pipeline and not a projection. The stock spent three straight sessions pricing it, up more than 12 percent into the print and out over the 152 to 154 ceiling that capped it through August, closing Friday at 158.78. The demand question is settled. Thursday is about a different number. |
That number is what the backlog costs to build. To deliver 638 billion in cloud contracts, Oracle is pouring money into data centers faster than the cash is coming in. Capital spending has run well ahead of operating cash flow for several quarters, the company has leaned on debt to cover the gap, and free cash flow has gone negative while the backlog swells. Management has guided cloud order growth of 58 to 64 percent, which only widens the spend. So the tape gets two stories in one report: a demand line that keeps setting records, and a cash flow statement bleeding to keep up with it. |
This is the read that survives the quarter. A backlog that size is only worth its multiple if Oracle can fund the build without the financing swamping the return. Last quarter the market forgave the spend because the order line kept exploding. The risk into Thursday is that backlog growth cools even slightly while the capex bill does not, with the stock already sitting at a three-week high, having priced the good version. The level that framed August is 152 to 154. Hold above it after the report and the re-rate has room. Lose it and the run into the print was the trade, and the print was the exit. |
Watch the read-through, too. Oracle has become the tape's proxy for whether the AI infrastructure spend converts to revenue on schedule, and its backlog numbers move sentiment across the whole group. It is part of why a name like Nebius can run 13 percent in three days into someone else's earnings. Confirm the conversion Thursday and the build-out cohort gets a longer leash. Disappoint, and the names that ran on Oracle's coattails give it back first. |
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📊 BY THE NUMBERS |
$638B
Oracle's remaining performance obligations, the contracted cloud revenue it has not yet delivered. |
58-64%
Management's guided range for cloud order growth, the number that keeps widening the capex bill. |
+12%
Oracle's three-session run into the print, from 141.32 to 158.78 and out over its August ceiling. |
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The number that matters Thursday is not revenue. It is what the backlog costs to build. |
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🔥 THE STREAK BOARD |
Streaks alive into Friday's close, ranked by how far they traveled: |
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Up 21 percent over three sessions, 36.82 to 44.68, volume holding near 40 million a day. The biggest run on the board. |
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Up 21 percent, 77.57 to 93.55, volume climbing into it. The second bitcoin miner on the list. |
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Up 13 percent, 199.54 to 226.39, the AI cloud name clearing its August range. |
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Up 8 percent, 66.54 to 71.99, a trucker. The tell that Friday's run was not only compute. |
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The other trade on the streak board |
Two of the four names stringing streaks into Friday were bitcoin miners, IREN and HUT, both up more than 20 percent in three sessions. Neither moved on the price of bitcoin. They moved because the market has started paying them as landlords rather than miners. The power contracts, cooling, and data-center shells that took years to build for crypto are now the scarcest inputs in AI, and the miners are signing hosting deals to rent them out. |
It is the cheaper version of the Oracle trade. Oracle is buying the compute and financing the buildings. The miners already own the buildings and the power hookups and are converting them one contract at a time. The risk sits in the same place on both ends. The demand is not in doubt. The cost of delivering it is. |
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⌛ THE 48-HOUR CLOCK |
PPI, Thursday 8:30 a.m. ET. The first of two inflation prints, and the first read on whether Friday's hot labor number has company. |
Oracle, Thursday after the close. The 638 billion dollar backlog and the capex bill behind it, in one report. |
CPI, Friday 8:30 a.m. ET. The print that sets the rate path every capital-heavy name in this letter is trading against. |
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Does Oracle's 638 billion backlog earn the multiple Thursday, or does the capex bill finally get a vote? Reply with your read. |
— Cal Torres, Markets Editor |
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Get the calendar before it becomes the news |
Half of what moves a session is on a public calendar before it happens: the prints, the speakers, the scheduled numbers. Most people find out after the fact. Good Morning Alerts sends what is on the schedule, plus the overnight moves, early enough to be useful. Free, short, and no pretense that it is anything more than a briefing. |
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(From Good Morning Alerts) Message and data rates may apply. Reply STOP to cancel at any time. |
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P.S. National debt just crossed 39 trillion dollars, and some of the biggest institutions are already repositioning for what a number that large does next. The read is laid out here. (Ad) |
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