But it is also ground zero for one of the biggest economic scams in America.
Politicians claim we need more taxes, bans, and rent controls to fix the housing crisis. It is a total lie.
When a developer buildsa new luxury condo, rich people move in. They leave behind their old, slightly cheaper homes. Middle-class people move into those.
The housing crisis is manufactured. It is created by politicians who care more about zoning laws, impact fees, and historic preservation reviews
The politicians in Hawaii love to talk about the "housing crisis." They wring their hands. They give speeches.
They pass new taxes, new bans, and new rent controls. They claim they are fighting for the little guy.
They are lying.
They don't want to solve the housing crisis. They created it. And a new report from the University of Hawaii just proved it.
The Filtering Effect
My rich dad taught me a very simple rule: supply and demand.
If you want things to be cheaper, you have to build more of them. It is not complicated. But politicians hate simple math.
The economists at the University of Hawaii studied a new condominium building next to the Ala Moana Center.
They tracked exactly what happened when people moved in.
It is called the "filtering effect."
When a family moves into a brand new, expensive condo, they leave behind their old house.
That old house is slightly cheaper. Another family moves into that one. They leave behind an even cheaper house.
It creates a chain reaction. One new luxury unit creates a cascade of vacancies all the way down the income ladder.
The study proved that the houses people left behind were substantially cheaper than the new units. They spanned diverse locations. They helped everyone.
A 2019 study by the Upjohn Institute found the exact same thing. New construction loosens the housing market in low- and middle-income areas.
A 2023 study from NYU proved it benefits renters by slowing down rent increases.
The math is undeniable. Building new homes makes all homes cheaper.
The Iran crisis has a winner. It pays 10% a year.
The Strait is closed. U.S. exports are at all-time highs. Europe is desperate for American energy. Every molecule has to flow through something.
That something is the Patriot Income Plan, or P.I.P. for short.
P.I.P. is made up of 14 partnerships that own the pipelines, terminals, and processing plants moving America's oil and gas.
Together they pay 10% a year — through 42 separate distributions.
I just got back from New York... And what I saw on the 50th floor of 4 World Trade Center left me in shock.
Dear Reader,
I just got back from New York...
And what I saw on the 50th floor of 4 World Trade Center left me in shock.
I was there to meet with 60-year Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin, a man who built bespoke investment systems for George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, and Mets owner Steve Cohen.
(Cohen used Chaikin's proprietary technology to help grow his firm from $20 million to $14 billion... a 69,900% surge in assets.)
Marc's also rung the opening bell of the Nasdaq stock exchange... created three new indices... and developed an indicator found on every Bloomberg and Reuters terminal in the world.
That said, what he showed me in New York could trump all of those extraordinary accomplishments.
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Editor's Note: JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon warned this day was coming. Now the investment expert who called Nvidia before it soared 1,000%, says it's finally here. Full story here.
Dear Reader,
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon... the most powerful banker in America... told his peers something shocking not too long ago.
It's the moment big tech finally comes for Wall Street.
And that moment just arrived.
At the center of everything is Elon Musk.
And Elon just launched the most direct assault on traditional banking America has ever seen.
He's secured money-transfer licenses in all 50 states. He's signed a deal with Visa. And he's already mailing physical banking cards to Americans across the country.
Most surprisingly, he's offering yields on cash that are 10 times what your bank is paying you right now.
Dimon saw it all coming. As did The Federal Reserve, IMF, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock.
In fact, they've all been warning about this for years.
And while the banks figure out how to respond, there's a narrow window for regular investors to get in early, before this becomes front page news.
My name is Luke Lango. I was voted America's #1 stock picker in 2020. My readers have had the chance to see gains as high as AMD +13,500%... Nvidia +5,000%... Palantir +1,200%.
And I've put together a full briefing on exactly what to do with your money right now because of this.
Luke Lango
Senior Investment Analyst, InvestorPlace
P.S. Your bank has been skimming off every transaction, every deposit, every paycheck for your entire life. Elon just decided to end that. The investors who move first on this story could make incredible profits. In fact, my readers have had the chance at gains as high as 13,500% or more when I've spotted stories like this early. Get the full briefing here.
Today’s editorial pick for you
An Ominous Quant Signal for Dollar Tree (DLTR) Suggests More Pain to Come
Posted On May 06, 2026 by Joshua Enomoto
Under macroeconomic pressure, you would expect discount retailers like Dollar Tree(NASDAQ: DLTR) to be a relative beacon amid popular names subject to cyclical disruption. With DLTR stock, the underlying proposition is simple and universal: people love finding a good bargain, irrespective of income levels. Frankly, the company occupies the lowest rung of the trade-down effect. Yet that hasn’t been helpful to DLTR.
Table of Contents
According to data cited by the Kellogg School of Management, consumers predictably traded down in the quality of the goods and services they purchased during the Great Recession. It makes sense because not every household product you buy has to be top of the line. In many cases, a one-dollar can opener works just as fine as a $10 piece from Target(NYSE:TGT).
Unfortunately, that era of direct simplicity — where shoppers can go to Dollar Tree and just expect everything to be a buck (or thereabouts) — is fading. Instead, management has decided to expand its market appeal, which in its mind involves improving product quality. There’s nothing wrong with that, per se. However, when you have built a business around the one-dollar price point, going beyond that realm represents a paradigm shift.
A few bucks here or there may not seem like that big of a deal — and perhaps you’re right. But we’re talking about DLTR stock here, which, as its name suggests, is based on the one-dollar concept. By introducing a multi-price strategy where products are priced at $3, $5, and even $7, you’re no longer operating exclusively on the lowest rung. Instead, you’re playing a game that big-box retailers have been streamlined for.
Now, I can’t say that the strategy doesn’t have any merits. Especially with the uncertainties surrounding the Iran conflict, it’s more important than ever for companies to protect their margins. Sadly, though, when the whole marketing image centers on price, you’re not left with many options.
Why the Smart Money May Be Fearful of DLTR Stock
In the equities market, there’s a common (and not entirely unfounded) assertion that the smart money is simply more prescient than the public retail money. Basically, sophisticated market participants enjoy access to better information — and that information is traded relatively upstream. By the time retail gets the juicy stock tip, the idea has been digested and integrated into the share price.
Still, it’s more accurate to say that the smart money’s positioning provides intriguing intel. And the volatility skew is probably one of the best places to look for this data.
By definition, the skew identifies implied volatility (IV) — or the expectation of movement — across the strike price spectrum of a given options chain. Essentially, this indicator acts as an insurance market. As traders hedge their bets or buy leverage for upside exposure, the skew of calls and puts changes accordingly.
For the June 18 expiration date of DLTR stock, the dominant sentiment appears to be that of downside protection. On the left tail below the current spot price, the IV for far out-the-money (OTM) puts accelerates higher at a noticeably quicker clip than put IV on the right tail (above spot).
Despite the seeming confirmation by the smart money, the core challenge with the volatility skew is that it’s like buying auto insurance. Just because you buy more coverage doesn’t necessarily mean that the chances of getting into an accident rise. The skew represents sentiment structure, not forward probabilities. To extract odds from this screener would be a category error.
In order to understand how DLTR stock may respond looking out, we need to rely on an inductive model.
Using Inductive Probabilities to Trade Dollar Tree Stock
At the core, induction is another term for pattern recognition. Relying on the uniformity of nature, inductive methodologies assume that the future will resemble the past. If you see the same outcome materialize over a number of observed periods, you would naturally expect the same (or similar) outcome the next time around.
Of course, the philosophical caveat to keep in mind is that, in non-deterministic systems, an outcome is not logically deduced. For example, if you see a head-and-shoulders pattern, experience may tell you that the next move is probably bearish, not certainly so. In other words, all inductive methodologies have a chance of incurring the black swan risk.
When it comes to a long-established name like Dollar Tree stock, you can easily calculate the probability of a positive return over a given period by analyzing historical price data. However, we’re not interested in trading DLTR as an aggregate of its long-term performance. Instead, we’re interested in trading the security based on its current signal.
One of the more remarkable events for DLTR stock is that in the last 10 weeks, it has only printed one up week, leading to an overall downward slope. This 1-9-D sequence has only materialized 10 times on a rolling basis since January 2007. Only in four instances did DLTR rise above the starting point 10 weeks later, which suggests that the security may be in a downward spiral.
Even more problematic, the 10-week forward distribution would be expected to land between $85 and $100 (assuming a starting price of $94.05). Probability density would be expected to peak around $92, which doesn’t bode well for those seeking a contrarian bullish position.
As it stands, because the volatility skew is downside-protection dominant, those buying put options will be doing so at a relatively elevated premium. However, I don’t really see a justification for going the opposite direction here. Therefore, aggressive speculators may consider the 90/85 bear put spread expiring June 18.
The idea here is for DLTR stock to fall through the $85 strike at expiration. If it does, the maximum payout is capped at roughly 133%. Breakeven comes in at $87.85, somewhat helping to improve the trade’s probabilistic credibility.
