Software went vertical Thursday. The tell is where the money came from.
⚡ FIRST 90 SECONDS
Workday gapped 17.8 percent Thursday on earnings, clearing an August base that had capped it near 185 for two weeks.
It did not travel alone. Six software names closed up double digits the same session, from Wix to HubSpot to DocuSign.
Three of AI's biggest buyers are quietly building the chips they buy. One analyst follows what that does to the margin. See the read. (Ad)
Workday reported Thursday and the stock did something it had not managed all month. It cleared 185. That number had been the ceiling on an August base, the line buyers kept failing at while the AI-hardware trade soaked up every dollar in the market. Thursday the earnings print pulled it through, and Workday closed at 206, up 17.8 percent on 16 million shares.
One stock gapping on earnings is a story about one company. Six of them moving together is a story about money. Wix closed up 16 percent, HubSpot 14, and Elastic, DocuSign and JFrog all ran double digits beside them. This is the software complex that spent the first half of the year getting sold to fund chips and memory and power. On Thursday it was the buy. When a whole group reprices in one session, the driver is rarely the group. It is what the money left behind to get there.
Two forces are pulling capital this way. The first is rates. Soft inflation data this week revived the case for cuts, and long-duration software is the most rate-sensitive corner of tech, the trade that gains the most when the discount rate falls. The second is crowding. The AI-hardware names have run for a year and carry the expectations to match, while software sat out the move and got cheap on a relative basis. Money does not need a catalyst to rotate. It needs one side to look expensive and the other to look forgotten. Both got checked this week.
The honest counter is that one green session does not make a rotation. Workday closed at 206 but printed 227 intraday, so it handed back 20 points into the bell, and a group that gapped this hard can give plenty more before it proves anything. The line that matters now is 185. Above it, Thursday reads as a base breaking and holding. Back below it, the whole thing reads as a short cover that ran out of names to squeeze. That is the level the next two weeks get argued over.
What makes this one worth tracking is the calendar behind it. Retail earnings start next week, and the read on the consumer that landed this morning feeds straight into how those trade. If rates keep falling and spending holds, the rotation into software has room to become the story of the back half. If the consumer wobbles, the money that just changed lanes changes back. For now the tape has told you which way it is leaning. It leaned Thursday, and it leaned hard.
📊 BY THE NUMBERS
+17.8% Workday's Thursday earnings gap, the session's software leader.
$185 The August base top the whole group finally cleared on Thursday.
6 Software names that closed up double digits in a single session.
When a whole group reprices in one session, the driver is rarely the group. It is what the money left behind to get there.
🔥 THE STREAK BOARD
Streaks alive into yesterday's close:
SMCI · D5
Up 33 percent over five straight sessions, volume expanding into the high.
CRCL · D5
Up 19 percent over five sessions, holding its gains every day.
MU · D3
Up 10 percent over three sessions, volume holding near 37 million.
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⏳ THE 48-HOUR CLOCK
Now to Monday Nothing dated on the calendar. The first quiet 48 hours in weeks, with this morning's retail and sentiment reads already in the tape.
Monday, 9:30 ET The tape reopens into a heavy retail-earnings week. Walmart and Home Depot headline the read on the consumer.
Does 185 hold and turn Thursday into a real rotation, or was it a squeeze that ran out of names to cover? Reply and tell me.
— Cal Torres, Markets Editor
P.S. The seven names everyone already owns are not where the flows are moving. Brownstone traces where they went instead. Follow the money. (From Brownstone Research)
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Today’s editorial pick for you
3 Quantum Computing Stocks After Earnings: What’s Next
Posted On Aug 10, 2026 by Chris Markoch
Quantum computing stocks were heavily featured in the week of earnings reports between Aug. 3 and Aug. 7. IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), and D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ: QBTS) all reported second-quarter results within days of each other, giving investors a rare side-by-side look at where the sector actually stands.
Table of Contents
The reports told three different stories. IonQ posted its fifth straight quarter of record revenue and closed a major acquisition. Rigetti grew revenue nearly threefold while landing a potential government funding deal. D-Wave saw bookings surge even as quarterly revenue stayed flat and the stock sold off.
That divergence sums up the industry. Quantum computing is no longer a single trade. It’s a basket of companies moving at different speeds, with different business models and different paths to profitability.
For long-term investors, that creates an opportunity to separate commercial traction from hype. The technology itself is advancing quickly, with government backing, enterprise pilots, and early revenue all becoming real rather than theoretical. The companies that convert that momentum into recurring, scalable revenue are the ones likely to lead the next phase of the industry.
Here’s what each earnings report revealed, and what it means going forward.
A small Colorado company now owns rights to a tech that could save the entire public power grid from collapse. And billionaire Sam Altman is now an investor.
Why Quantum Computing Could Reshape Entire Industries
Quantum computing promises to solve problems that today’s fastest supercomputers simply can’t handle. Classical computers process information as bits, either a 0 or a 1. Quantum computers use qubits, which can represent multiple states simultaneously. That property allows them to explore huge numbers of possibilities in parallel.
The practical applications are wide-ranging. Drug developers could simulate molecular interactions to speed up discovery. Financial firms could optimize portfolios and model risk with far more precision. Logistics companies could solve complex routing problems in real time. Materials scientists could design new batteries, alloys, or chemicals atom by atom.
Governments have taken notice. National security applications, from cryptography to advanced simulation, are driving public investment alongside private capital. That’s why deals like Rigetti’s letter of intent with the Department of Commerce carry weight beyond the dollar figure attached to them.
The industry is still early. Most quantum computers today are error-prone and limited in scale. But the roadmap toward larger, more reliable systems is becoming clearer, and each earnings season now offers real data instead of just promises. That shift from concept to commercialization is what makes this sector worth watching closely.
IonQ Extends Its Record-Breaking Streak
IonQ delivered the standout report of the group. Second-quarter revenue hit $80.1 million, up 287% year-over-year and its fifth consecutive record quarter. Organic growth reached 132%, well above the company’s own full-year target.
Growth came from expanding global deployments of IonQ’s fifth-generation Tempo systems, including new installations in South Korea and Switzerland. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to a range of $280 million to $290 million.
The bigger story may be strategic. IonQ closed its $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology, adding U.S.-based chip design and manufacturing capability. That move supports IonQ’s roadmap toward 256-qubit systems by 2027 and, eventually, chips with 10,000 qubits.
Losses remain heavy, and a large non-cash accounting charge inflated the reported net loss. But for investors focused on execution and market share, IonQ’s operational momentum is difficult to ignore right now.
Rigetti Combines Revenue Growth With Government Validation
Rigetti’s quarter showed real commercial progress. Revenue climbed to $5.1 million, up 183% year-over-year, driven by sales of its on-premises Novera QPU systems. Gross margin improved to 43%, a meaningful jump from 31% a year earlier.
The headline development was a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in potential CHIPS Act funding. While not yet finalized, and likely to involve some equity issuance, the deal signals government confidence in Rigetti’s superconducting chiplet approach.
Rigetti also expanded its partnership with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center to build a hybrid quantum-classical system. The company reaffirmed its three-year target of reaching roughly 1,000 qubits. With $541.3 million in cash and no debt, Rigetti has a runway to continue investing in its roadmap as revenue scales.
D-Wave’s Bookings Signal Demand Ahead of Revenue
D-Wave’s results were more mixed. Quarterly revenue held essentially flat at $3.1 million, missing analyst expectations, and the stock fell after the report. Adjusted EBITDA losses widened as the company invested more heavily in product development and go-to-market spending.
The more encouraging figures sat beneath the headline number. Bookings jumped 59% year-over-year, and first-half bookings surged more than 1,120% compared to a year earlier. Remaining performance obligations rose sharply as well, suggesting stronger demand than current revenue reflects.
Management expects revenue to increase modestly in the third quarter, followed by a larger jump in the fourth quarter, driven by system shipments and installation work. D-Wave’s dual-platform strategy, offering both annealing and gate-model quantum computing, remains a differentiator. For investors, the question is whether that growing order backlog converts into revenue fast enough to justify patience.
Today’s editorial pick for you
UBER Stock Options Offer an Intriguing Proposition for the Gambler
Posted On Aug 10, 2026 by Joshua Enomoto
Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) isn’t exactly what you would call an enticing investment opportunity based on its current-year performance. Since the beginning of the year, UBER stock has dropped by almost 14%. Fundamentally, you would have to imagine that challenging economic circumstances have not aided the bullish thesis. Still, there might be an opportunity to extract quick profits through options.
Table of Contents
At the time of writing, UBER stock trades hands at $70.47, with afterhours trading suggesting a modest decline to about $70.31 for Friday’s open. Ultimately, I’m seeing a positive volatility cluster that may offer an outside chance of UBER reaching $73 by the Aug. 21 expiration date — or about a 3.6% move from Thursday’s close.
First of all, what do I mean by a volatility cluster? Essentially, the price discovery process in the equities market is rarely orderly and linear. Instead, a ticker like Uber Technologies stock could see modest day-to-day moves, then swing sharply higher on certain sessions. A great example is an earnings report. Generally, you’re going to see a massive volatility cluster around a material financial disclosure.
Now, the ride-sharing giant has already disclosed its second-quarter results, leading to a sizable leap in UBER stock following a positive print. Of course, the sentiment from that Q2 report has been digested. What I’m suggesting is that another circumstance — specifically an order flow imbalance — could lead to another positive volatility cluster.
To be fair (and I need you all to pay attention here), the proposition is risky. Strangely enough, I’m going to demonstrate that the core trading idea I’m about to present features a negative expected value. Basically, this means that if you place a wager on this transaction across multiple parallel universes, you’d likely end up losing money.
However, I’m also going to demonstrate that among the rational debit spreads, the idea that I will propose is arguably the most efficient trade on a relative basis.
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What exactly is the order flow balance that I’m referring to for Uber Technologies stock? In the last 10 weeks, UBER managed to print only four up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. When we filter historical trading data for this 4-6-D quantitative sequence, we notice an unusual characteristic in its forward 10-week behavior that we can potentially exploit.
If we were to assume a random walk for UBER stock over the next 10-week period, historical data suggests that the ticker’s median price could likely land between $69.50 and $72.50. At the week 10 endpoint, the most probabilistic price is between $71 and $72 — which isn’t much to brag about.
However, in the second week following the flashing of the 4-6-D signal, we tend to see a positive volatility cluster for Uber Technologies stock. Using an inductive approach, my guess is that there’s a solid chance that a similar scenario can repeat this time around.
Granted, we have to be careful here. Just because we witnessed a pattern in the past does not mean the trend is guaranteed to repeat in the future. Like all inductive models, the attempt to exploit order flow imbalances is prone to the black swan risk. It just takes one incident to go wrong for the model to look foolish.
Still, my main argument is that under certain conditions, a publicly traded security may undergo a nonrandom walk. And that’s the point here about UBER stock. Under 4-6-D conditions, there tends to be a nonrandom spike in week 2. I’m not guaranteeing that this volatility cluster will occur; rather, I’m just pointing to the history of such occurrences.
Plus, I’d like to point out that the concept of forecasting volatility clusters isn’t new. On July 29, I headlined an article on StockEarnings.com about a potential upsized move for Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR). Now, I thought that PLTR stock was on pace to hit $127. It recently closed under $156. Nevertheless, the point still stands — a volatility cluster was signaled and a few days later it materialized.
Identifying a Tempting Idea
Having said all that, if the implications of the 4-6-D signal plays out as expected, the median endpoint price of UBER stock at week 2 is a little over $72. That means we may expect — assuming the implications of the model ring true — that half of outcomes may land above this point and half below. As such, the first instinct may be to consider a strategy involving $72 as an options-related target.
Still, arguably the most intriguing idea in the mix — which would be the 70/72 bull call spread expiring Aug. 21 — has a minor setback that might turn off some speculators. While the net debit is relatively cheap at $101 (meaning that this is the most that can be lost in the trade), the maximum profit should UBER stock rise through the $72 strike at expiration is $99.
If UBER’s odds of reaching $72 on Aug. 21 is indeed 50%, this would translate to an expected value of a loss of $1, stemming from this equation: (50% x $99) – (50% x $101) = EV. Obviously, the idea of suffering a negative EV isn’t exactly ideal. However, enhancing the reward potential only exacerbates the negative EV issue.
For example, you could push your luck with the Aug. 21 71/72.50 bull spread, which offers a max payout of over 111%. But because the probability of UBER stock reaching $72.50 at expiration (under my model) is only 43.4%, the reward isn’t enough to overcome the max profit/max loss split of $79/$71 into the positive side of the ledger.
To make a long story short, the return on risk for this trade would be about 19.57%, whereas the return on risk for the 70/72 bull spread would be less than 1%.
Yes, both options trading ideas lead to negative EV. However, if you are going to speculate, the 70/72 spread is more efficient against a risk-management framework.
A Final Note to Keep in Mind
I’m going to sound like a broken record but it must be stressed that prior patterns aren’t guaranteed to repeat. Nobody knows the future, especially when making a prediction in isolation. However, my belief is that certain market structures yield a tendency of nonrandom, asymmetric behaviors. If this behavior is divergent enough, we may be able to exploit it. That’s possibly the case with UBER stock.
