Dear Reader,
Every major gold bull market has the same soundtrack…
Prices surge. Headlines explode. Late money piles in. Then the market exhales — just enough to shake out weak hands and convince commentators that this time was different… and now it's done.
That's exactly where we are today...
The Crowd Says the Gold Rally Is Over — History Says They're Dead WRONG
After gold's recent meteoric run, the narrative has flipped fast…
We're suddenly hearing about "topping patterns," "exhaustion," and "inevitable mean reversion."
Lower prices are supposedly right around the corner.
Gold, we're told, has already had its moment.
But when you step back from the day-to-day noise and look at the actual data — not the vibes, not the hot takes — that bearish thesis completely collapses.
Not weakens. Collapses.
Because virtually every structural force that pushed gold higher over the past several years is still firmly in place… and in many cases, stronger than ever.
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Gold Isn't Expensive — It's Still a Rounding Error
One of the most useful ways to judge whether gold is truly "overbought" is to compare its value to the rest of the financial system — specifically, global equities…
Today, the total market capitalization of all the gold ever mined sits at roughly $15 trillion–$16 trillion, depending on price fluctuations.
That sounds enormous until you put it next to global stock markets, which now exceed $110 trillion in total value.
That means gold represents around 13%–14% of global equities.
Now, here's the key historical context almost no one is talking about…
At the peak of the last great gold bull market in 1980, gold's market capitalization rose to roughly 90% of the value of global equities.
Let that sink in...
If gold were merely to return to that historical relationship — not exceed it, not enter a speculative mania — gold prices would need to rise dramatically from here.
The current market is nowhere near that kind of relative extreme. In fact, by historical standards, gold remains structurally underowned…
According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management, investors hold less than 3% of their assets in gold.
This isn't a bubble. This is still early-cycle behavior.
Central Banks Aren't Speculating — They're Stockpiling
While retail investors debate charts, central banks are voting with vaults.
Over the past few years, central banks have been buying gold at the fastest pace in modern history…
According to World Gold Council data, central banks purchased over 1,000 metric tons of gold in both 2022 and 2023, levels that dwarf the long-term average.
This isn't momentum chasing. Central banks don't buy tops. They buy insurance.
They're buying because the global monetary system is fraying. And they didn't stop just because prices dropped last month…
Reserve managers across Asia, the Middle East, and emerging markets are actively diversifying away from U.S. Treasuries and the dollar — not out of ideology, but out of necessity.
Sanctions, frozen reserves, and weaponized payment systems have changed the calculus of what constitutes a "safe asset."
Gold doesn't default. It doesn't sanction. It doesn't require permission.
That's why central banks are still net buyers — and why there's no evidence that demand is slowing in any meaningful way.
$300 Trillion in Debt Isn't a Footnote — It's the Plot
Global debt has now surpassed $300 trillion, a number so large it barely registers emotionally.
Yet global governments continue to run trillion-dollar deficits as if they're rounding errors.
Interest expense alone is becoming a budget-killer for major economies — including the United States.
(It's now our biggest line item, above healthcare and defense spending, which are two and three respectively.)
And yet there's no political will anywhere on the planet to meaningfully rein in spending.
Debt begets more debt. Deficits compound. Monetary discipline remains theoretical.
But gold doesn't even need hyperinflation to thrive…
It only needs persistent monetary irresponsibility — and that's exactly what the data shows.
Every attempt to normalize policy runs headlong into economic fragility, forcing central banks back toward accommodation.
This isn't a temporary imbalance. It's a structural one.
And gold has always been the long-term beneficiary of that reality.
Geopolitics Didn't Cool Off — They Hardened
One of the most bizarre arguments being made today is that geopolitical risk is "priced in."
Tell that to supply chains…
Russia remains locked in a grinding war with Ukraine that has permanently altered energy, agriculture, and defense markets.
China has not abandoned its ambitions toward Taiwan — and is increasingly explicit about its timeline.
Iran continues to destabilize the Middle East through proxies and its own military, creating persistent flashpoints across the region.
These aren't isolated events. They are symptoms of a world transitioning from globalization to strategic fragmentation.
And in that world, gold regains its historical role as neutral collateral — the asset that sits outside alliances, treaties, and trade blocs.
Critical Minerals, Fragile Supply Chains, and Financial Nationalism
The same forces reshaping energy and manufacturing are reshaping finance.
Critical minerals are now openly used as bargaining chips.
Supply chains are being re-engineered for resilience rather than efficiency.
Governments are prioritizing control over cost.
This shift reinforces gold's appeal in two powerful ways…
First, it highlights the vulnerability of just-in-time systems and paper promises.
And second, it underscores the value of assets that are globally recognized, universally liquid, and politically neutral.
Gold checks all three boxes.
Corrections Aren't Warnings — They're Invitations
Here's the part most investors struggle with…
Strong bull markets don't move in straight lines. Instead, they surge, pause, frustrate, and then continue.
The 1970s gold bull market was littered with violent corrections that convinced observers it was over — long before the real peak arrived…
We're seeing the same dynamic today.
This lull isn't evidence of exhaustion. It's evidence of digestion…
The market is absorbing gains, shaking out leverage, and resetting sentiment. That's exactly what healthy, long-duration trends do before the next leg higher.
Why Gold Producers Matter More in This Phase
If gold itself is still early in its relative valuation cycle, quality gold producers may be even earlier.
Historically, miners lag early in bull markets and outperform later as margins expand, balance sheets improve, and cash flows surge.
We're already seeing that dynamic emerge, with many producers generating record free cash flow even at prices below recent highs.
As gold prices reassert themselves, operating leverage works quickly — and dramatically — in favor of well-run producers with high-quality assets.
This is where patient capital tends to be rewarded the most.
Reality Hasn't Changed — the Market's Mood Has
Strip away the headlines and nothing fundamental has reversed…
Gold is still cheap relative to global equities. Central banks are still buying at historic rates.
Debt is still compounding at an unsustainable pace. Geopolitical risk remains elevated.
Supply chains remain fragile. Trust in fiat systems continues to erode.
The only thing that's changed is sentiment.
And sentiment, not fundamentals, is what creates opportunity.
The Setup Is Familiar — and So Is the Ending
We've seen this movie before…
Periods of doubt follow strong advances. Confidence wanes just as the structural forces strengthen.
Then reality reasserts itself — and prices move sharply higher to reflect it.
If gold's market capitalization merely climbs back toward its historical relationship with global equities, today's prices will look conservative in hindsight.
This lull isn't the end of the rally…
It's the pause before the next act.
And for investors willing to look past the noise, it may prove to be one of the most attractive entry points of this entire cycle.
To your wealth,
Jason Williams
@TheReal_JayDubs
Angel Research on Youtube
After graduating Cum Laude in finance and economics, Jason designed and analyzed complex projects for the U.S. Army. He made the jump to the private sector as an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley, where he eventually led his own team responsible for billions of dollars in daily trading. Jason left Wall Street to found his own investment office and now shares the strategies he used and the network he built with you. Jason is the founder of Main Street Ventures, a pre-IPO investment newsletter; the founder of Future Giants, a nano cap investing service; and authors The Wealth Advisory income stock newsletter. He is also the managing editor of Wealth Daily. To learn more about Jason, click here.
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