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Today’s editorial pick for you
McDonald’s Stock Is Down. Here’s Why It’s a Buy
Posted On Aug 24, 2026 by Chris Markoch
McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) delivered a mixed earnings report in early August, and investors are still trying to decide what to do with the stock. There are legitimate concerns about soft comparable store sales, but the sales are still growing, which can get lost when revenue comes in lighter than expected.
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But a more plausible story is that MCD was one of the best ways to invest in the restaurant sector for several years. Now, other names are starting to catch up, and it’s causing a repricing of the stock. That means the downward price action since Feb. 2026 is a healthy, albeit unwelcome, pullback. Still, it seems like a good time for investors to take a bite.
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A Sector Catching Up, not a Company Falling Behind
For years, McDonald’s traded at a premium to its restaurant peers. That premium reflected real advantages: an unmatched scale, a fortress balance sheet, and a franchise model that generates cash in almost any environment. Investors willingly paid for that stability, especially when other restaurant stocks looked shakier.
That gap has narrowed in 2026. Competitors have sharpened their value offerings and improved execution, closing some of the distance that once separated them from McDonald’s. When a market leader’s advantage shrinks, even slightly, the stock often gets repriced before the fundamentals catch up. That’s arguably what’s happening here.
This distinction matters in how investors read the chart. A stock falling because the business is deteriorating is a different animal from one falling because its relative advantage is normalizing. The first scenario is a warning sign. The second is often a buying opportunity in disguise, particularly for a company with McDonald’s balance sheet.
It’s worth remembering that MCD is a Dividend King, having raised its payout for over 45 consecutive years. That track record didn’t happen by accident. It reflects a business model built to generate consistent free cash flow, even through recessions, pandemics, and shifting consumer habits.
None of that means the current pullback is painless for shareholders. Watching a long-time market leader underperform is uncomfortable, and it’s tempting to read every headline as confirmation that something is fundamentally broken. But a repricing driven by sector convergence is a very different story from one driven by a company losing its grip on its core business.
That’s the tension at the heart of this analysis. The narrative around MCD has shifted from “best-in-class compounder” to “story stock in trouble.” The numbers, though, still tell a more boring, more reassuring story. That gap between perception and fundamentals is exactly where opportunity tends to hide.
McDonald’s and the Consumer: Where the Concern Lies?
Until gas prices, and by extension other prices, move lower. That’s a story that’s not likely to change. That’s where the concern rests for MCD.
On the other hand, concerns about the impact of GLP-1 drugs remain anecdotal. That’s not to say they don’t exist, but it’s not showing up in a meaningful way in McDonald’s sales and earnings data. Consumers may look for smaller portions, but that’s not an existential threat.
MCD Technical Analysis: Two Sides of a Coin
The MCD chart is brutal; there’s no getting around it. In addition to being in a downtrend since February, investors are dealing with a descending 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and a descending 50-day SMA. The latter has acted as a source of resistance throughout the summer.
But there’s another signal on the chart that is a cause for optimism. That is, on multiple occasions, MCD has confirmed a bottom at around $260. That’s right around what some analysts consider to be the stock’s fair value.
The consensus price target for MCD is around $320. That would put the stock right around its Jan. 2026 high. However, investors need to remember that these are often 12-month targets. Many investors will want to see a confirmation of a gain above the 50-day SMA before starting a position.
Why Investors Shouldn’t Give Up on MCD
So what’s the difference between McDonald’s now and McDonald’s then? The only thing I can really see is the stock price. Yes, the company, by its own admission, botched the execution of some promotions. But this is a company that’s still posting year-over-year beats on its top and bottom lines. That’s not the sign of a business or a stock that’s in trouble.
But the stock did get overvalued. And at around 21x forward earnings, it may still have further to drop. But if some DCF analyses are correct, MCD is getting close to a fair value of around $260. That means, this could be a time to start snacking on the stock, which pays one of the most reliable dividends in the industry.
Today’s editorial pick for you
Despite TJX Companies’ Mixed Results, There May Be a Bull Case Here
Posted On Aug 24, 2026 by Joshua Enomoto
While TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) has been a choppy name this year, circumstances took a decidedly negative turn recently. Following the disclosure of the off-price retailer’s second-quarter earnings report, TJX stock found itself staring at a sea of red ink. In the trailing five sessions ending Aug. 20, the ticker suffered a decline of almost 7%.
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At first, the downfall seemed a bit harsh given that the discount specialist demonstrated strong growth in its home goods business. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to overcome a slowdown at its TJ Maxx and Marshalls discount apparel chains. In addition, broader concerns exist about the viability of domestic consumer spending.
There was also an acknowledgement that the company itself could have operated more efficiently. In a post-earnings call, CEO Ernie Herrman admitted that TJX “could have executed our store mix better” at TJ Maxx and Marshalls. In particular, the head exec noted that certain products that typically would spark impulse buying were missing from store shelves.
Still, Herrman believes that the “…issues were self-inflicted and within our control.” If so, it’s possible that a bullish case exists for TJX stock.
Mainly, the narrative comes down to mean reversion. When solid, relevant companies succumb to temporary pressure, it could trigger buy-the-dip sentiments among professional and institutional players. Of course, this hypothesis would come under greater skepticism if we were dealing with a luxury discretionary name.
However, as an off-price specialist, TJX Companies should benefit from the trade-down effect, where consumers naturally shift their spending habits toward cheaper alternatives. TJX is one of those brands that operate on the lower rungs of this ladder, making a contrarian trade more plausible.
Even better, there appears to be significant pessimism right now due to the poor performance of TJX stock. As such, the volatility skew reveals hedging behavior indicative of uncertainty. Undoubtedly, it’s risky to go contrarian after a disappointing financial disclosure. But I believe there might be an interesting argument here.
Understanding the Presupposition Baked into TJX Stock
Every forward-looking analysis of a publicly traded security faces a core problem: no one knows what the future may bring. In fact, from an epistemological viewpoint, it is impossible to rely on any one forward event with absolute certainty. Even the concept of the sequential nature of time — that there are concepts of “before” and “after” — are presuppositional.
Now, just because an argument utilizes presuppositions doesn’t necessarily make it invalid. When you’re talking about the unknown future, a presuppositional framework is inevitable. But when it comes to something like TJX stock, the key difference among models is typically understanding which premises are more reasonable than others.
For example, I’m looking at the 140/145 bull call spread expiring Sep. 18. Traders are hoping that TJX Companies stock will rise through the $145 strike price at expiration. If it does, the net debit paid of $235 will become a maximum profit of $265 or a max payout of almost 113%.
Now, at time of writing, TJX stock trades hands at $140.69. For the security to trigger the $145 strike at expiration, it would need to move up 3.06%. At a quick glance, this goal represents a challenge because the implied volatility (IV) of the Sep. 18 options chain sits at around 21%, whereas the historical volatility for this time period runs a bit higher at over 23%.
Accordingly, Wall Street assigns modest odds that TJX Companies stock will be profitable. At the moment, the chances that TJX will trigger the breakeven price of $142.35 are set at 42.2%. If we look at the probability distribution screener, the odds that the ticker will hit the second-leg strike at expiration are 34.70%.
If we ran an expected move (EV) calculation on this transaction, it would be hard to view the call spread as anything more than a steadily sinking ship. Over the theoretical long run, taking this exact wager would lead to far more losses than gains.
The problem here is the underlying assumptions that go into the above probabilities. Wall Street is pricing this option spread as if TJX stock will undergo a random walk between now and the expiration date. Imagine the ticker traversing through these next four weeks, with each session in this period being adjudicated by random chance.
Over this cumulative period, the chances that TJX stock will hit $145 on Sep. 18 are defined at just under 35%. But that’s only true if we grant the presupposition of a random walk.
There’s Another Presupposition: The Nonrandom Walk
My view is very simple. Rather than assume that TJX Companies stock will undergo a random walk from now to expiration, I believe that the ticker will undergo a nonrandom walk. How can I be so sure? Well, to be honest, I don’t have the greatest of confidence. Nevertheless, we know from past data that whenever TJX suffered an extended downturn, the result has been an above-average performance — at least for certain weeks.
Specifically, in the last 10 weeks, TJX stock printed only three positive weekly candlesticks, thus leading to an overall downward slope across the period. Under this 3-7-D quantitative sequence, the nature of the response over the next 10 weeks changes relative to the random baseline.
Most conspicuously, after four weeks following the flashing of the above signal, the median endpoint expectation for TJX stock is to hit the equivalent of the $145 strike price (using data since January 2019). In other words, out of the 20 times that the signal has flashed, past patterns suggest that half of the outcomes should land above $145, while the other half should land below $145.
Yes, the sample size is very small — that’s why it’s not statistically possible to have high confidence in the trade. However, if we were to go with an inductive framework, the Sep. 18 140/145 bull spread would seem to make sense.
Caveats to Keep in Mind
Does this mean you should abandon all caution and buy TJX stock right now? Not without keeping the risks in mind. Any inductive analysis always risks falling prey to the black swan. Basically, you can infer where TJX may end up at a certain point in time but you cannot guarantee that the observed pattern will repeat in the future.
Also, you must consider that options trades are cruel because of the specificity involved. My last story about TJX stock — published on June 30 — is a great example. I was bullish on TJX and the charts have ultimately justified this general direction.
Sadly, I was too bullish and that’s why the trade ultimately failed at the end. This trade right now is far more conservative — but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be successful. As always, you must enter the derivatives market with both eyes wide open.
P.S. This isn’t a 100-page novel. It’s a short, actionable guide you can read in about 10 minutes and put into action by tomorrow morning. Get it here.
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