 I've spent two decades tracking the forces that move gold... For 20 years I've lived inside the data, the cycles, the macro shifts... And what's happening right now between Saudi Arabia and the Chinese is a turning point that will move the price of gold in a way we haven't seen in generations. Because the Saudis have quietly walked away from a pact it struck with the U.S. in 1974... A pact that quietly ran the global financial system for the past half-century. The arrangement was simple: Saudi Arabia would price its oil only in U.S. dollars — which meant every nation on the planet had to stockpile U.S. Treasuries just to buy energy. That single agreement is the bedrock American financial supremacy has rested on for fifty years. And now, it's gone. The mainstream press barely covered the unwinding of this deal... And in the beginning, the surface looked calm. But the cracks are now impossible to ignore... Saudi Arabia inked a $7 billion currency swap with Beijing… Started clearing oil transactions in digital yuan… And plugged itself into mBridge, China's cross-border settlement network. Conflict with Iran is pushing Gulf states toward yuan-denominated oil contracts... And vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz are now paying tolls in yuan, in crypto, in anything other than the greenback... On both shores of the Persian Gulf, the dollar's grip is loosening... and something else is taking its place. The collapse of this enormous, built-in global demand for dollars will rewrite how money works. Because if crude no longer requires dollars, then the world has no reason to warehouse U.S. currency. And when dollar demand softens… Treasury demand softens right alongside it. Ten-year yields are already creeping toward 4.4% — the level where the machinery starts to seize up. Weaker Treasury demand → climbing yields → Fed steps in → the printers fire up → and the dollars in your account quietly lose their muscle. That's the chain reaction unfolding in front of us. As the dollar weakens and foreign buyers walk away from American debt, gold has nowhere to go but up. A sinking dollar is the most powerful tailwind gold has ever known. But the smartest way to position for the dollar's decline isn't to load up on bullion… There's a different vehicle for capturing gold's next leg higher... An asset that's still priced at a dramatic discount to where gold itself is trading today. It's gold exposure at a fraction of the cost... Click here to see how it works. Best, Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Chief Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
More Reading from MarketBeat.com
Ulta's Q1 Report Primes It for a Beauty of a ReboundReported by Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 6/4/2026. 
Key Points
- Ulta Beauty is trading near long-term lows, setting up for a solid rebound this year.
- A deep value opportunity is highlighted by analysts' trends and institutional stock accumulation.
- Upside potential runs in the 40% range in the mid-term, with a triple-digit gain expected over the long term.
- Special Report: Trump Issues Emergency Order That Supports Elon Musk's Next Venture
Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) faces the same hurdles as many consumer companies this year, but it is navigating them well, and its strategies appear to be working. With a focus on store expansion, international growth, acquisitions, and broader product offerings, the company is growing, outperforming estimates, and looks positioned to maintain that strength in the quarters ahead. For investors, the key takeaway is that Ulta Beauty’s stock price is near long-term lows and could be set to rebound as the year progresses. The only real question is timing, and the move may come sooner than early June trading suggests. With the company gaining traction, the stock trading at deep-value levels, and sell-side firms accumulating, the shares appear to have limited downside and meaningful upside potential.
The initial analyst response to the company's Q1 earnings report neatly captures the situation. It included several price target reductions issued immediately after the report, but those were cautionary notes within an otherwise bullish outlook. While the cuts weighed on sentiment, the $651 consensus price target still offers substantial upside for a Buy-rated stock. A move to Cannacord’s new $731 target would put shares at new all-time highs, and catalysts ahead could help drive that move. Catalysts Loom for Ulta Beauty: Rebound AheadFuture earnings reports are likely to show additional momentum, helping sustain a bullish outlook for the stock. MarketBeat currently tracks 27 analysts who rate Ulta a consensus Moderate Buy, with a 75% Buy-side bias. The trailing 12-month (TTM) average price target of $688 implies roughly 40% upside from key support levels and could be reached within months of a confirmed bottom. Signs that a bottom may already be in place include both technical and sell-side factors; signs of a move to new highs include analyst forecasts and technical indicators. 
Institutions are the driving force behind this market. They own approximately 90% of the stock and have been accumulating shares on a trailing 12-month basis. MarketBeat data show they accumulated at a rate of nearly $2 for every $1 of stock sold over four consecutive quarters, even as price action remained highly volatile. Meanwhile, the technical picture includes a sharp convergence in the monthly chart. The MACD convergence shows a market gaining strength as it reached the early 2026 peak, setting it up to retest the existing high on the next rebound. Again, the main question is timing, and it could easily begin by mid-summer, if not sooner. Ulta Beauty Fires on All Cylinders in FQ1 2026Ulta Beauty posted a solid Q1, with revenue rising 11.1% to $3.16 billion, or 130 basis points better than expected. The strength was driven by a 5.3% comp-store increase, new stores, and acquisitions. Sales were strong across product categories, with cosmetics leading at up 40%. Skin care grew 24%, hair 18%, and fragrances 12%, all solid results. Sales were also strong across channels, reflecting the impact of Ulta’s digitization and eCommerce initiatives. Margin news was also encouraging. Fears of margin compression tied to tariffs, macro headwinds, and aggressive growth plans proved overblown. The company widened gross margin by 100 basis points and kept costs under control. Operating income grew 11.6%, adjusted net income rose 10.8%, and diluted earnings per share increased 15.5%, beating the consensus estimate by more than 1,000 basis points. Looking ahead, the company expects margin strength to continue. Management reaffirmed its revenue target and raised its earnings outlook to align with consensus estimates. Management also increased the 2026 buyback target, which could help support institutional money flows. The increase was worth $500 million, bringing the total to $1.5 billion, and reflects confidence in future cash flow. The key takeaway is that Ulta is aggressively reducing its share count while accelerating growth, which raises questions about the valuation and stock price. At $465 per share, Ulta trades at only 7X its 10-year earnings outlook, suggesting that 200% or more in stock price upside is possible over time. Ulta’s balance sheet shows no red flags, only reasons to believe share buybacks will continue. Quarter-end highlights include a lower cash balance offset by higher current and total assets, persistently low leverage, and a 6% increase in equity despite heavy investment and capital returns. The likely outcome is that Ulta continues reducing its share count in coming quarters, which could accelerate the stock’s rebound over time. The biggest risk for Ulta this summer is higher oil and gas prices and their effect on consumer spending habits. . |
