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This Week's Bonus Article
Amprius Technologies' Next Big Rally Could Be Taking ShapeSubmitted by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 10/20/2026. 
Key Points
- Amprius Technologies shares corrected by 68% during the third quarter despite surging as much as 3,877% from the 2024 lows, and Elliott Wave analysis suggests the speculative phase has ended.
- A projected bullish wave could push AMPX shares above $31 by mid-2027, supported by a strengthening Moderate Buy rating and analyst targets reaching $30 to $33.
- A $75 million Department of War grant validated government interest in Amprius, setting up a capacity ramp targeting 12 million cells annually by early 2028.
- Special Report: A new income category is drawing serious money - here's why
Amprius Technologies (NYSE: AMPX) experienced a shocking trend shift in Q3, at least on the surface, given the 68% correction in its share price during that period. At one point during the quarter, shares were up as much as 3,877% from their 2024 lows, offering early investors a compelling profit. The stock remains significantly higher than it was at that time. The stock's price action reflects a fundamental market shift that is still underway and likely to gain momentum in the coming quarters. Amprius Technologies’ technology has been validated, it is backed by government grants, its product-ramp timeline is accelerating, and profitability forecasts are improving alongside it. With the company now entering its execution phase, the upside potential is substantial. The Chart Says the Speculation Phase Is Over and the Execution Phase Is Underway
Amprius Technologies' chart action suggests that its first phase—the speculation phase—is complete or nearly so. The 2024-to-2026 price action clearly aligns with Elliott Wave Theory, showing the market waking up to the opportunity, buying into the outlook and then driving the stock to fresh highs on FOMO, or the fear of missing out. 
Elliott Waves are a widely used technical tool based on an eight-wave cycle. The five-wave impulse cycle includes three upswings and two corrections, with the middle surge usually the largest; under a strict interpretation, it can never be the smallest. In this case, AMPX’s market swings were 490%, 550% and 215%, perfectly matching that rule. The three-wave corrective phase is now underway, with the bottom clearly marked. The question is whether AMPX has completed its corrective action or faces another test of support, which cannot be ruled out. For investors, this suggests that AMPX may be near a bottom, as other indicators suggest. While AMPX hit fresh lows in mid-October, the stock is diverging from its indicators and becoming overextended ahead of an expected series of bullish catalysts. In this scenario, the stock is set for a bullish swing with the potential to sustain an upward trajectory despite periodic pullbacks and corrections. Upcoming catalysts include the Q3 2026 earnings report, due in early November. Quarterly results are likely to be strong, given the contract wins, ongoing capacity ramp and history of outperformance. Consensus forecasts call for only slight quarter-to-quarter growth and a slowdown to about 66.5% year over year, likely underestimating the company's strength. Guidance will be the more critical factor, as current trends point to a surge in product availability next year. Analysts forecast only about 50% growth next year, another figure the company could outperform. AMPX’s Next Bullish Wave Could Send Shares Above $31In a scenario where Amprius’ outlook continues to improve, completing the initial eight-wave Elliott cycle would mark the end of the second wave in a much larger movement. Under this scenario, AMPX could advance by an amount equal to the first cycle—about $23.62 as a base case—and could easily exceed that amount if the news cycle cooperates. The bull case requires flawless or nearly flawless execution, supported by quarterly outperformance, steadily improving guidance and positive contract flow. Adding the $23.62 projection to the mid-October lows puts AMPX above $31, with the timeline for reaching that level accelerating. As it stands, the bull case puts the stock at that target by mid-2027, and analyst trends are supporting the outlook. MarketBeat data reveals increasing coverage, a strengthening Moderate Buy rating among 13 tracked analysts and more than 170% upside to the consensus target. Consensus remains below $22, but the trend matters, with high-end targets in the $30-to-$33 range that bracket the Elliott Wave projection. Institutions remain a critical factor. The group does not own much of this stock yet and sold in early Q4, contributing to the price downdraft. If institutions do not get on board, retail investors will struggle to keep the stock elevated once a rebound or recovery occurs. The good news is that triggers for institutional buying exist, including execution on its government grant, securing full NDAA compliance and ramping NDAA-compliant production. The company has secured NDAA-compliant components; now it needs to ramp capacity and capability across its portfolio. Only a portion of its roughly two dozen designs are currently compliant. Amprius Technologies' $75 million Department of War grant was a game changer for investors. The move validated government interest, shifting the narrative from speculation to “we definitely want this,” and set the stage for a significant capacity ramp in early 2028. The deal aims to refit an existing electric vehicle battery facility to produce AMPX cells, targeting annual production of 12 million cells.
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