October 25, 2026 | Read online

The Week Ahead - October 25th

Elon's NeoCloud Panic

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back! Futures are up slightly to start the week.

Elon had an extremely stark warning for the AI industry today; flaming the fires of the CoreWeave and necocloud worries. However, he’s obviously not an unbiased narrator. The Neoclouds running into trouble makes it easier for Elon to buy more compute and further tap the markets. This might be true, but Elon stands to gain in this world:

Plus, we have the Fed meeting this week. The odds on no change are at 94% currently, and the odds of a December 9th 25bps rate hike are at 74%.

Lastly, earnings are picking up, with a busy week below. Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

Monday: Verizon, Welltower, Nucor, The Hartford Insurance Group, Cadence Design Systems, Public Storage, Whirlpool Corporation, Carter's, Brown & Brown, PriceSmart, Celestica, Amkor Technology
Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, HSBC, Novartis, Robinhood, UPS, PayPal, SoFi Technologies, Royal Caribbean, Hilton Worldwide, S&P Global, Seagate Technology, JetBlue Airways, HCA Healthcare, Waste Management, Freeport-McMoRan, Corning, Sherwin-Williams, NXP Semiconductors, Johnson Controls, Ecolab, Baker Hughes, Centene, Teradyne, Logitech, PPG Industries
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, GE Vernova, KLA Corporation, T-Mobile, ServiceNow, ADP, Phillips 66, FedEx, Ford Motor Company, Chipotle, Biogen, GE HealthCare, Carvana, eBay, Boston Scientific, O'Reilly Automotive, International Paper, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Equinix, Raymond James Financial, Stellantis
Thursday: Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Gilead Sciences, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bristol Myers Squibb, Stryker, Starbucks, Trane Technologies, Mondelez International, Republic Services, Coinbase, D.R. Horton, Roblox, Hershey, Restaurant Brands International, Reddit, First Solar, Rivian, Hyatt Hotels, Crocs, Norwegian Cruise Line, Harley-Davidson
Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, BP, General Dynamics, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Colgate-Palmolive, Canadian National Railway, Newell Brands, Capri Holdings

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

Tuesday: Durable Goods (1.2%), S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Px Index, New Home Sales (655K), Conference Bd - Consumer Confidence (81.2), U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday: Advance U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Wholesale Inventories, Retail Inventories, U.S. interest rate decision (no change)
Thursday: Advance estimate GDP (3.2%), Weekly Jobless Claims (200K), Personal Income M/M% (0.3%), Consumer Spending (0.6%), PCE Price Idx M/M% (0.5%), PCE Price Idx Y/Y% (3.7%), PCE Core Price Idx M/M% (0.3%), PCE Core Price Idx Y/Y% (3.1%)
Friday: Employment Cost Index (0.8%), Chicago Business Barometer ISM Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

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Earnings Corner 💸

American Express $AXP ( ▼ 3.68% ) Slightly missed on revenue at $20.06B vs. $20.12B, while EPS beat at $4.68. Revenue was held back by slower card spending growth and softer commercial spending, while EPS benefited from higher card fees, growing net interest income and strong credit quality. Expenses rose 9%, with rewards and cardmember benefit costs climbing sharply as the company spent more to support its premium card strategy. Mgmt. raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance and plans to cut 5% of its workforce to improve efficiency.
First Citizens BancShares $FCNCA ( ▲ 8.15% ) Beat on top and bottom line, helped by loan and deposit growth that lifted net interest income to $1.70B, while credit quality also improved. The main pressure was a lower net interest margin, which fell to 3.07% from 3.26% as funding costs remained elevated. Mgmt. raised 2026 net interest income guidance and authorized a new $1.2B buyback.
Rogers Communications $RCI ( ▼ 2.44% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, helped by strong media growth and cost efficiencies. Shares fell as a regulatory ban on certain wireless fees pushed service revenue down 1% and ARPU down 2.6%, while the company avoided aggressive discounting and added fewer subscribers. Mgmt. reaffirmed 2026 guidance.

On The Move 📈 📉

Goldman cut its 12-month Kospi target by 25% to 9,000 as the AI trade unravels. The index has plunged more than 35% from its June peak and now trades at about four times forward earnings.
Instacart $CART ( ▲ 9.21% ) jumped late Friday on reports that it’s exploring a sale, with DoorDash $DASH ( ▼ 3.53% ) among potential buyers still in talks after Uber $UBER ( ▼ 3.43% ) reportedly walked away.
Cybersecurity stocks $CRWD ( ▲ 8.25% ) , $ZS ( ▲ 7.31% ) , $NET ( ▲ 7.29% ) , $PANW ( ▲ 7.22% ) , and $OKTA ( ▲ 5.82% ) rallied after an Evercore ISI survey of cybersecurity resellers found security budgets getting stronger heading into year-end.
Robert Half $RHI ( ▲ 21.74% ) soared after management said a wave of government fines against big banks has created a large pipeline of anti-money laundering compliance work for its Protiviti consulting unit. EPS also rose 14%, its first increase since 2022.
The big carriers AT&T $T ( ▼ 7.96% ) , Verizon $VZ ( ▼ 1.2% ) , and T-Mobile $TMUS ( ▼ 7.72% ) fell as SpaceX $SPCX ( ▲ 1.89% ) continues to push into their business. SpaceX is reportedly negotiating access to 80,000 U.S. cell sites, weeks after agreeing to buy nationwide spectrum.
Genmab $GMAB ( ▲ 9.48% ) rose after its ovarian cancer drug Rina-S cut the risk of disease progression or death by 71% in a Phase 3 trial. Rival Corcept $CORT ( ▼ 20.13% ) sank.
Auto stocks $F ( ▼ 2.85% ) and $GM ( ▼ 1.67% ) dropped as parts makers $GNTX ( ▼ 4.97% ) and $ALV ( ▼ 3.54% ) slumped on earnings and suppliers flagged rising cost headwinds. GM capped its worst week since 2023, down 9.6%, after narrowing its profit guidance Tuesday.

IPO Roundup 📍

Anthropic’s S-1 is expected imminently in advance of a pre-Thanksgiving IPO - stay tuned!
Wonder, Marc Lore’s food delivery startup, is preparing for a possible IPO, and Lore has said it will be ready to go public early next year. The Grubhub owner has raised $3.3Bn and was valued at $9Bn pre-money in its latest round.
OPay, a SoftBank-backed Nigerian payments app, set terms to raise up to $336mm in its US IPO, which would give it a $4Bn+ market value.
Windward Bio filed for a US IPO to fund trials of its antibody drugs for severe asthma, COPD, and eczema. The Swiss biotech is backed by Novo Holdings.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿

Meta has created a new class of non-voting Class C stock to fund its AI spending, distributing one share per existing share in what it expects to act like a two-for-one split, with the shares usable for fundraising, employee pay, and acquisition without diluting Zuckerberg’s control.
Block cofounder Jack Dorsey introduced Dessa, a speech-to-speech AI model that listens and talks at the same time, which Block’s research team says it trained from scratch on human conversation alone.
JPMorgan’s private bank is using AI to make its advisers more efficient while still hiring more of them. EMEA head Pablo Garnica expects adviser headcount in the region to grow 10% to 15% over the next three to five years.
JetBlue creditors, including holders of $2Bn of 2031 bonds and a $742M first-lien loan, have organized with PJT Partners and Akin Gump as the bonds and loan each fell to about 45 cents on the dollar this week.
Bon Secours Mercy Health is in late-stage talks to buy a majority stake in Bain-backed Surgery Partners at $20/share, valuing the surgical care provider at $6Bn including its $3.5Bn of debt.
Calpers is shifting from US tech giants toward private equity, cutting its combined direct holdings of the Magnificent Seven by 26% in the first half of 2026 and swapping concentrated exposure for several hundred firms.
Clearlake-backed Springs Window Fashions is preparing a workout proposal for lenders in the coming weeks, seeking a consensual out-of-court deal built around new money and a lower debt load, with its $1.5Bn term loan due 2028 quoted at 38 cents on the dollar.
Mark Walter is selling the Los Angeles Sparks and a related practice facility for more than $700M, which would be by far the largest WNBA franchise sale ever.
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says AI has delivered “zero financial payoff” to corporate America outside of tech. Revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Mag 7 but flat for the S&P 493.
J.P. Morgan says the AI label alone is no longer enough for lenders. Insuring debt from the weakest AI borrowers now costs about 10 times more than insuring debt from the strongest.
SEC examiners will step up scrutiny of private fund valuations and how firms prepare for AI-related cyberattacks. The focus comes as the SEC weighs opening private markets to more retail investors.
What makes up CCC risk? See here:

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M&A Transactions💭

Goodles, producer of noodles and pasta intended to offer nutritious snacks, was acquired by Barilla G. e R. Fratelli, via its financial sponsors Dean & Dean Capital Group Corporation and Russian Direct Investment Fund, through a $750.0M LBO.

Innovist, operator of a personal care brand intended to provide cosmetic products, was acquired by L'Oreal (PAR: OR) for $400.0M.

Celnor Group, operator of testing, inspection, certification, and compliance companies intended for the life sciences, environmental, and industrial sectors, entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Goldman Sachs Asset Management through an estimated GBP 900.0M LBO. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Mountain Peak Power, operator of a natural gas facility based in Princeton, New Jersey, was acquired by TransAlta (TSE: TA) for $1.0B. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭

A group of investors, including KKR co-founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts, has bought a 42% stake in the Spanish football club Valencia at an enterprise value of €1.25B.

Star Therapeutics, developer of antibody-based therapeutics designed to treat serious and underserved diseases through novel biological pathways, raised $200.0M of venture funding in a deal led by OrbiMed and Janus Henderson Investors.

Pathos AI, developer of a drug discovery platform designed to reduce the duration of the medication development process, raised $237.0M of Series E venture funding in a deal led by Bristol-Myers Squibb, putting the company's pre-money valuation at an estimated $2.76B.

SendCutSend, manufacturer of custom manufacturing and fabrication products designed for prototype and production part manufacturing purposes, raised $140.5M of Series B venture funding in a deal led by Spark Capital, putting the company's post-valuation at $2.1B.

Tractian, developer of an industrial monitoring platform designed for predictive maintenance and asset management, raised $130.0M of Series D venture funding in a deal led by Sapphire Ventures and M&G, putting the company's pre-money valuation at $1.27B.

Restructuring Updates💭

Getty Images — Type: Prepackaged Chapter 11. Debt: More than $1B. What happened: Filed October 21 in Delaware with a creditor-supported restructuring that includes up to $533M in new equity, debt reduction and a plan to emerge as a private company by year-end.

Braskem America Finance Company — Type: Involuntary Chapter 11. Debt: Not yet verified. What happened: Three creditor funds filed an involuntary bankruptcy petition against Braskem's U.S. financing subsidiary on October 20 in New York. This is a creditor-initiated case, not a voluntary restructuring.

Restructuring Rumors💭

Optimum Communications (Altice USA) — Type: Potential Chapter 11 / debt-for-equity restructuring. Debt: ~$26B. What happened: Reportedly preparing for a possible bankruptcy to transfer control to creditors including Apollo, Oaktree and JPMorgan. Approximately $6B matures in 2027, and a filing could occur before year-end.

Hughes Satellite Systems (EchoStar) — Type: Contested Chapter 11 restructuring. Debt: Significant outstanding bond obligations. What happened: A bankruptcy judge rejected bondholders' attempt to introduce a competing restructuring plan, allowing Hughes to retain exclusive control through December 1.

Omnicare (CVS Health) — Type: Chapter 11 / distressed sale. Debt: $110M DIP financing. What happened: Requested a third amendment to its bankruptcy financing agreement because its planned separation and sale from CVS is unlikely to close before the existing loan maturity.