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The September survey said American business is expanding at its fastest pace since 2021 — a composite reading of 58.4. Economists expect tomorrow’s count of what factories actually ordered to show a decline of 0.4%.
You read this morning that insiders bought energy services and offshore drilling while the 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2007. Tonight, the one number that decides which signal is telling the truth.
Three questions I’ll answer
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What lands at 8:30 tomorrow, and why does one factory report reach the bond market? |
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Where is the money standing before the print, and why are insiders and the bond market leaning opposite ways? |
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Which single line inside the report settles it? |
I have watched this release land for 25 years, and the headline is almost never the part that matters. ↓
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The Survey Meets the Order Book
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern tomorrow, the Census Bureau releases its advance report on durable goods orders for August — orders placed with American factories for things built to last three years or more: machinery, turbines, drilling equipment, aircraft. A survey records an opinion. An order commits money.
That gap is why a factory report reaches the bond market. The same September survey that put growth at a five-year high put the costs those companies pay at their highest since October 2022. Firm orders alongside rising costs argue for tighter Fed policy; soft orders argue the survey is running on sentiment. Wednesday the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.11%, its highest since 2007. The bond market has started answering already.
The line that carries the weight sits deeper: nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, what economists call core capital goods. It strips out defense work and the lumpy aircraft orders that swing the headline on one Boeing week, leaving the equipment businesses buy in order to produce. In July it rose 0.2% against a 1.1% headline — the survey was already running hotter than the order book.
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Release, August data
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Fri 8:30 a.m. ET
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July headline orders
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+1.1%
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July core capital goods
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+0.2%
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August consensus, headline
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−0.4%
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How the money is standing
Insiders — positioned for the equipment cycle
Borr Drilling, an offshore contractor that leases jack-up rigs to oil producers, drew three open-market buys in one week. Director Tor Olav Troim took 1,000,000 shares on September 16 at $4.30 and 150,000 more the next day, lifting his stake near 10% of the company; chief executive Bruno Morand de Oliveira added 45,500 on September 18. Rigs get ordered only after a producer commits to new wells.
The bond market — pricing the opposite
The VIX, the options market’s estimate of how far the S&P 500 will move over the next 30 days, closed Wednesday at 15.18 — calm, on a day more than 72% of U.S. stocks fell. The pressure went into rates. CME FedWatch, which turns fed funds futures prices into odds, put the chance of a quarter-point increase in October at 53%. Higher financing costs are what slow the equipment orders the insiders are buying into.
So tomorrow’s question is narrow. If core capital goods hold positive, the survey has a receipt behind it. If they fall while the survey reads 58.4, the gap between what companies say and what they sign becomes the story.
NATE’S TAKE
In my experience the tape trades the headline for about ninety seconds, then finds the core line. What I find interesting is the split. Troim bought a million shares of a rig contractor in the open market and took himself to a tenth of the company — a man underwriting a cycle he expects to arrive. The bond market is pricing what that cycle costs to finance. Both can hold at once, and usually do for a while before one stops. The core line at 8:30 is where we start finding out which.
— Nate Fowler
After the Bell · Evening Special Edition
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DISCLOSURE: |
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