September 13, 2026 | Read online

The Week Ahead - September 13

Wall Street Braces for the Fed as Dario, Sam, and Elon Urge an AI Pacing Brake

Welcome back.

Stocks snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday, with the S&P 500 jumping 0.9% and the Dow rebounding over 500 points as crude oil pulled back toward $104 per barrel following an in-line CPI print. However, all eyes remain fixed on Wednesday’s high-stakes FOMC rate decision, where prediction markets have aggressively repriced monetary policy: Polymarket traders currently place an 80% probability on a 25 basis point rate hike, with odds of a pause collapsing to 20%.

Meanwhile, this weekend brought a rare show of alignment among rival AI leaders. Dario Amodei published an open letter arguing that the industry should "slow the pace" of frontier model development, an appeal publicly backed by both Sam Altman and Elon Musk.

Dario laid out a three-step plan:

Embed third-party evaluators inside frontier AI labs to verify safety practices.
Coordinate among democratic AI companies on safety standards and pacing limits.
Pursue global coordination, including aligning with China on catastrophic risk guardrails.

His warning stems from two core concerns: recursive self-improvement and the recent OpenAI-Hugging Face incident, in which OpenAI’s own AI agents escaped their sandbox and spent four days hacking Hugging Face. Dario warned that within 6 to 12 months, a more capable autonomous swarm could take over the internet and potentially cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.

Yet, skeptics note the underlying friction: nothing prevents these frontier labs from voluntarily slowing their own cadence, as they are the ones setting the pace. Regardless, safety rhetoric has escalated dramatically over the past month, and the word "slowdown" doesn't exactly line up with Anthropic’s current IPO prep...

Here’s a look at the earnings this week:

Monday: Grifols, Dave & Buster's, Hain Celestial
Tuesday: Trip.com Group, Forgent Power Solutions, Vera Bradley, American Resources
Wednesday: Lennar, LuxExperience
Thursday: VinFast Auto, Hub Group

Here’s a look at economic data set to be released:

Monday: No events scheduled
Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (11.1), U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday: Retail Sales (0.8%), Import Prices (-0.1%), Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories (0.3%), NAHB Housing Market Index (34), Federal Reserve economic projections, U.S. interest rate decision
Thursday: Housing Starts (1.3M), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (27.5), Weekly Jobless Claims (205K), Pending Home Sales Idx M/M%
Friday: Industrial Production M/M% (0.3%), Capacity Utilization % (76.5%), Leading Indicators (0.2%)

Earnings Corner 💸

Kroger Company $KR ( ▲ 2.7% ) missed slightly on the top line but beat on the bottom line, with revenue of $34.62B vs. $34.64B expected and EPS of $1.09. Sales growth was held back by pharmacy headwinds, egg deflation, and the Cyclospora outbreak. However, EPS still beat as e-commerce sales and retail media rose, and sourcing savings and cost cuts helped expand gross margin despite weaker sales. Management cut FY sales guidance but kept EPS guidance unchanged as those margin and cost improvements continue to offset softer demand.
Adobe $ADBE ( ▲ 1.37% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $6.76B and EPS of $6.13. Revenue grew 13% YoY as subscription sales increased and AI helped drive user growth, with AI-first ARR up 150%+ and monthly active users topping 1B. However, total ARR and backlog growth slowed as the company focused on growing its user base before converting more of those users into paying customers, while AI revenue remains a small part of the overall business. Shares were down as Q4 revenue guidance was only roughly in line and investors still want to see whether AI can offset slower core growth and rising competition.
Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 1.74% ) beat on both top and bottom lines, with revenue of $19.3B vs. $19.14B expected and EPS of $1.92 vs. $1.74 expected. Revenue grew 30% YoY as cloud infrastructure revenue surged and the company signed more than $30B of new AI cloud contracts, pushing backlog to $664B. Capex also looked better than expected, as most of the new business is prepaid or uses customer-owned hardware, limiting the need for additional spending. Management raised FY EPS guidance, while a smaller-than-expected FCF burn eased concerns around the cost of its AI buildout.
Macy’s $M ( ▲ 7.71% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $4.87B vs. $4.83B expected and adjusted EPS of $0.40 vs. $0.37 expected. Results were driven by 2.7% comp growth, led by strong demand at Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury and better performance at revamped Macy’s stores as improved assortments, staffing, and store experience helped drive sales. Higher-priced merchandise and lower supply chain costs also supported profitability. Management raised FY guidance, though the company remains cautious on the consumer and plans to reinvest most of its $116M in tariff refunds back into stores, pricing, and the customer experience.

On The Move 📈 📉

NuScale Power $SMR ( ▼ 15.67% ) tumbled after UBS downgraded the stock to Sell and cut its price target to $6 from $10, citing an extended build timeline. The firm sees just $29M in 2028 EBITDA versus the ~$124M implied by the market.
Jefferies Financial $JEF ( ▼ 3.65% ) slid after Reuters reported that a fund partly owned by Jefferies has nearly $500M of exposure to Radiant World, a trade-finance client now subject to court freezing orders in London and Singapore.
AI infrastructure suppliers $DELL ( ▲ 11.98% ) , $HPE ( ▲ 12.44% ) , and $NOK ( ▲ 4.8% ) rallied on AI hardware demand. Dell hit a fresh 52-week high after Q2 AI server orders of $60.9B exceeded total revenue of $47B. HPE surged as Q3 AI orders pushed its backlog to $7.6B and management raised its FY outlook. Dell and Nokia are also Series C investors in Nscale, which is reportedly pursuing ~$3.5B in pre-IPO financing.
eVTOL names $BETA ( ▲ 6.44% ) and $ACHR ( ▲ 2.39% ) rose after their joint charging consortium ACES announced plans to bring interoperable charging to Texas to support the state’s air taxi operations.
NetApp $NTAP ( ▲ 8.54% ) rose after Q1 FY27 revenue grew 30% to a record $2.03B and management raised FY revenue and EPS guidance. All-flash array sales jumped 47% as AI workloads drove demand for high-speed storage.
Chewy $CHWY ( ▼ 3.04% ) slid after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral with a $24 PT, following an Evercore cut a day before. Both firms cited soft category growth and noted Q2’s EBITDA beat was almost entirely driven by $15M in one-time items, including a tariff refund.

IPO Roundup 📍

OpenAI won’t go public this year, as CEO Sam Altman called 2026 an “ill-advised moment” for an IPO given AI safety concerns. A listing won’t happen until 2027, despite the company’s confidential filing in June.
Anthropic picked Nasdaq for its IPO, potentially the largest ever, targeting a raise that could top SpaceX’s record $86.3B June debut. The Claude maker could list as soon as October and is running at over $65B annualized revenue, up 7x from year-end 2025.
Nscale appointed former OpenAI, Meta, and Instacart CEO Fidji Simo to its board ahead of an IPO that could come as soon as this month. Simo joins fellow Meta veterans Sheryl Sandberg and Nick Clegg on the board of the AI cloud firm.
Altera is preparing to confidentially file for a US IPO that could raise $2B+ as soon as this year. The Silver Lake and Intel-backed chipmaker makes programmable chips for AI, industrial automation, and robotics.
Stratolaunch, which operates the only reusable hypersonic flight test platform in the US, is targeting an IPO of up to $500M at a $2B–$3B valuation as soon as October.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for the AI industry to “slow the pace” of development, warning an AI swarm could become capable of “taking over the entire internet” within a year, with Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly backing the appeal in a rare show of unity among rival AI leaders.
OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT for Financial Services, built with Morgan Stanley and Evercore, aimed at automating research and pitchbook creation traditionally done by junior bankers.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness is back, buying option positions in AI-related names including AMD, Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, SK Hynix, and Sandisk. The reentry comes weeks after the hedge fund’s assets fell to $10B from its peak of $45B.
Bank of America is scrambling to refinance Cogent Communications’ debt, with pricing on the $750M first-lien bond jumping from 9.5% to 11%.
Google DeepMind is speculated to have a breakthrough in recursive self-improvement as a known AI leaker’s cryptic post congratulated the company with capital letters spelling out “RSI.”
Michael Burry sold his entire Flutter Entertainment stake, moving proceeds into Lululemon $LULU ( ▲ 2.16% ) under $100, saying its “compressed” valuation and management issues could make it a takeover target.
Anthropic is in talks with Nvidia to anchor its upcoming IPO, with Nvidia potentially investing $10B as part of an offering that could raise $100B and value Anthropic around $2T.
Banks are preparing to offer $138B of buyout debt in coming months, with US volumes at their highest since 2007, which includes financings for data centers, KKR’s Integer Holdings deal, Platinum Equity’s Nestle water stake, and EQT’s Intertek acquisition.
Oracle raised its job-cutting restructuring estimate by $700M to $2.8B, as the company grapples with a cash crunch tied to its AI data center buildout. Oracle stock $ORCL ( ▼ 1.74% ) has fallen since the company disclosed a new trading program letting Chairman Larry Ellison sell up to 50M shares through 10/24.
Data Center Developments:
- Microsoft plans to more than triple its data center capacity to over 38 gigawatts by 2032, up from ~12GW today.
- Data center opposition has become a defining midterm issue, and 61% of US adults now oppose new ones in their area. As many as half of proposed US data centers are at risk of delays or cancellations.
- Captive insurance is emerging as the go-to coverage model for AI data centers, and Marsh predicts “explosive growth” as facilities exceed the scale traditional insurers can absorb.
- Massachusetts joined a growing list of states clamping down on AI data centers. Gov. Maura Healey’s new order requires developers to pay for their own clean energy or contribute to a “ratepayer protection fund” to cushion resident energy bills.
- The Marcellus Shale Coalition says Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s data center restrictions threaten demand for gas producers. AI data centers are a key source of in-basin demand for producers with limited pipeline capacity out of the region.
Meta is meeting European bond investors in a non-deal roadshow to fund the AI boom. It would be Meta’s first debt raise outside the dollar market, joining Amazon and Alphabet in tapping the global debt markets.
Morgan Stanley Research: Sustainable funds beat traditional funds in H1 2026, returning a median 4.9% vs. 4.0%. The outperformance was aided by greater exposure to equities, and sustainable fund AUM rose 4.8% to a record $4.24 trillion as of June 30.
Apollo is winding down some products at its Eliant Trade Finance platform after the market struggled this year. Eliant is closing mid-market accounts receivable and supply-chain finance products (<10% of assets) following the First Brands Group collapse.

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M&A Transactions💭

AtaiBeckley, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on mental health treatments, was acquired for $3.84B by Lilly USA (NYS: LLY). Centerview Partners, Citigroup, and Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

Maybank Ageas Holdings, provider of insurance and takaful services, was acquired for MYR 4.83B by Maybank (KLS: 1155). Maybank acquired the remaining 30.95% stake, increasing its ownership to 100%.

ACV Auctions (NYS: ACVA), operator of a digital marketplace for wholesale vehicle auctions, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for an estimated $1.9B by Copart (NAS: CPRT). EV/Revenue was 2.17x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

BioCircuit Technologies, manufacturer of medical devices designed to monitor and control peripheral nerve activity, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $200.0M by Axogen (NAS: AXGN). Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Eleco (LON: ELCO), provider of software and services for the built environment, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired through an estimated GBP 207.6M public-to-private LBO by Accel-KKR. Stephens advised on the sale.

Fin, developer of an AI-powered customer service platform, was acquired for $3.6B by Salesforce (NYS: CRM).

Miro, developer of visual collaboration and project-planning software, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.36B by Bending Spoons (NAS: BSP).

Picton Property Income, U.K. real estate investment trust focused on commercial property, was acquired for $545.6M by LondonMetric Property (LON: LMP) and Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON: SREI). EV/Revenue was 6.36x. Panmure Liberum and Stifel Financial advised on the sale.

RISEC Holdings, operator of a natural gas-fired power plant and a subsidiary of Shell Energy North America, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $715.0M by Constellation Energy Generation.

WildFire Energy, operator of an energy exploration and production business, was acquired for $4.06B by Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYS: MGY). BofA Securities & Jefferies Finance advised on the sale.

Alif Semiconductor, manufacturer of microcontrollers and fusion processors, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.35B by Analog Devices (NAS: ADI). Qatalyst Partners advised on the sale.

Goodwin Steel Castings, manufacturer of high-integrity machined castings and a subsidiary of Goodwin, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired through a GBP 1.1B LBO by Cerberus Capital Management as part of a multi-asset transaction. FTI Consulting and Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Tallgrass Pony Express Pipeline, operator of an oil and gas pipeline network and a subsidiary of Tallgrass Energy Partners, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.55B by Enbridge (TSE: ENB).

Centerspace (NYS: CSR), a real estate investment trust focused on residential properties, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for approximately $1.05B by Independence Realty Trust (NYS: IRT). EV/Revenue was 3.89x. BMO Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭

Applied Compute, developer of productivity software designed to build specialized intelligence software for enterprises, raised $350.0M of venture funding led by Elad Gil at a pre-money valuation of $2.9B.

Ayar Labs, developer of optical interconnect products for artificial intelligence infrastructure, raised $650.0M of Series E venture funding led by Neuberger Berman Group and Artisan Partners Asset Management at a post-money valuation of $5.0B.

Guangyu Xinchen, manufacturer of edge AI chips designed for large language models in smart devices, raised nearly CNY 2.0B of Series A venture funding from Beijing Automotive Group Industrial Investment and UOB Venture Management, among other investors.

Mach Industries, developer of defense manufacturing technology, raised $900.0M of Series C venture funding led by Infinite Capital and Ribbit Capital at a post-money valuation of $3.7B.

Maven, developer of advanced robotic systems designed for industrial automation, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding led by RoboStrategy, with participation from XTX Ventures, Vine Ventures, and Phoenix Court.

Motive, manufacturer of electronic fleet-tracking devices, raised $1.3B of venture funding from General Catalyst.

Positron AI, developer of semiconductor hardware designed to accelerate inference workloads, raised $875.0M through a combination of Series C and Series C-1 venture funding led by Valor Equity Partners and New Enterprise Associates at a post-money valuation of $5.0B.

Transformative American Resources, provider of energy infrastructure development services, raised $120.0M of Series A venture funding led by Spark Capital at a post-money valuation of $1.0B.

Clay, developer of an AI-based sales intelligence platform, raised $115.0M of Series D venture funding led by Wellington Legacy Capital at a post-money valuation of $7.1B.

Encoded, developer of precision gene therapies for severe genetic disorders, raised $275.0M of Series F venture funding led by GV, with participation from SoftBank Investment Advisers, The Invus Group, and Venrock.

Feimo Technology, manufacturer of intelligent robots designed to operate in complex real-world environments, raised $100.0M of seed funding from Hesai Technology, DiDi Global, and Fosun RZ Capital.

Restructuring Updates💭

LIV Golf

Type: Chapter 11
Debt: $500M–$1B liabilities
What happened: Filed Sept. 8 after Saudi PIF withdrew funding. LIV is pursuing a smaller operating model and new financing, with BC Partners proposing a $300M investment.

PGR Lessee I

Type: Chapter 11
Debt: $100M–$500M liabilities
What happened: Power-generation company filed Sept. 9 in Texas with both assets and liabilities listed at $100M–$500M.

Cowboys Far West / Cowboys Dancehall

Type: Chapter 11
Debt: $6.9M liabilities
What happened: San Antonio entertainment venue filed Sept. 9 for the second time, citing landlord disputes and disruption from nearby highway construction.

Restructuring Rumors💭

Brightspeed

Type: Restructuring / financing watch
Debt: ~$11B
What happened: Apollo-backed broadband provider is negotiating with creditors for fresh capital after a prior distressed exchange eliminated more than $1B of debt.

Cornerstone Building Brands

Type: Creditor restructuring watch
Debt: ~$5B
What happened: Creditors have formed a cooperation group and are pushing CD&R for stronger protections as the company evaluates ways to address its debt load.

Dish Wireless

Type: Chapter 11 / contested restructuring
Debt: Multi-billion-dollar capital structure
What happened: Unsecured creditors are seeking an independent trustee, alleging conflicts in the company's restructuring and wind-down process; Dish is opposing the request.