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Monday's Bonus Article
Defense, Solar, and Refining Stocks Split as the Iran Conflict Raises Energy RiskSubmitted by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 9/9/2026. 
Key Points
- Renewed escalation in the Iran conflict has lifted oil prices and kept energy-security concerns at the center of the market.
- SAIC’s defense IT exposure and strong fiscal second-quarter results make it a steadier way to play higher national security demand.
- SolarEdge still faces financing and residential-solar headwinds, while Marathon Petroleum has benefited most directly from elevated refining margins.
- Special Report: We Called KDA, PRE, and OCEAN—this is next
Months into the war between the United States and Iran, the conflict has entered another period of intensification. The many ups and downs over the last several months, during which a ceasefire has repeatedly appeared imminent before attacks resume, have provided opportunities for select industries and companies to thrive. Now, with multiple commercial supertankers struck in recent weeks, the escalation is prompting a divergence across the market. As oil remains near multi-week highs, defense contractors are benefiting from a sustained increase in government outlays. At the same time, concerns about energy security may create uncertainty across the sector. Oil refiners are enjoying crack spreads that are near all-time highs in terms of profitability. The three companies below represent each of these corners of the market and have responded very differently to the latest round of fighting in the Iran conflict. SAIC Is a Steady Compounder in the Defense IT Space
Science Applications International Corp. (NASDAQ: SAIC) plays a pivotal role in intelligence systems, cybersecurity and mission IT, allowing the contractor to benefit across all phases of a war like the one in Iran. Results for its latest quarter—Q2 fiscal 2027, which ended July 31, 2026—were strong across the board. They included organic revenue growth of about 5%, adjusted EBITDA of $193 million at a 10.3% margin and $131 million in free cash flow. The company also posted an impressive earnings beat, with earnings per share (EPS) of $3.01, 70 cents ahead of estimates. This figure was lower year over year (YOY), however, due to a large legal settlement a year earlier. SAIC also provided insight into its contract pipeline, which strengthens the case for its future prospects. A $400 million recompete contract for an unspecified U.S. intelligence agency, coupled with a recompete win rate of more than 90% for the latest quarter, indicates that SAIC is highly capable of generating new business. Management raised its fiscal 2027 earnings outlook by 75 cents at the low end and 65 cents at the high end, along with an increase in its anticipated revenue. The company's backlog is also robust. In short, SAIC appears to be operating well in an environment practically designed to ensure its success. One factor that may give investors pause, however, is that after climbing nearly 26% year to date (YTD), SAIC stock may not have as much room to rally in the near term. SolarEdge’s Recovery Still Faces a Difficult SetupAfter several highly tumultuous years, SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ: SEDG) appeared to be an early beneficiary of the Iran war. Shares climbed in the weeks immediately following the onset of U.S.-Israeli strikes and then spiked in early June as European demand rose amid market volatility. Since then, however, the picture has become cloudier. Even with fairly strong Q2 2026 results—including a 20% YOY revenue increase to more than $346 million, a non-GAAP operating profit for the first time in several years and gross margin expansion to 28.6%—shares of SEDG have now fallen significantly from their mid-year highs. Higher energy prices should help boost solar adoption, which would benefit the company. However, rising Treasury yields due to energy-fueled inflation concerns also mean that the cost of financing its projects has soared, potentially harming demand. At the same time, a tepid U.S. residential market may weigh on SolarEdge's business. The result is a company that, despite fairly strong fundamentals, has an overall Reduce rating across Wall Street analyses. Marathon Is the Clearest Winner, But Not a Risk-Free OneHigh gas prices, near-record crack spreads and concerns about supply have created an excellent environment for oil refiners. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC), one of the world's largest such companies, is no exception. Marathon's Q2 2026 earnings report was stellar, with second-quarter profit surging nearly fourfold to $5.1 billion on a 54% YOY jump in revenue. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled as well, thanks in large part to excellent crack spreads amid the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Shares of MPC have predictably shot upward in this environment, climbing over 140% YTD. Analysts remain largely optimistic about MPC's viability for investors, with 12 of 17 calling the shares a Buy even as the stock has surged past the consensus price target of $330.50. Of course, the danger for investors is that the same major catalyst—crack spreads driven by supply concerns—can reverse just as quickly. So while Marathon may seem like the clear winner of the three stocks on this list, investors should remain mindful that it still carries risks amid a highly volatile war.
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