M15X and Yongin capacity vs Samsung ramp — who keeps Nvidia allocation.
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AI ARMS RACE |
THE CLOSE · WEDNESDAY |
Knox Bennett, Lead Strategist, Strategic Compute · September 23, 2026 |
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TONIGHT'S BEAT — MEMORY / ALLOCATION |
SK hynix is racing for HBM tons. Pricing power is the fight. |
M15X and Yongin capacity are the defense. Samsung is adding tons too. Demand is still projected to outrun supply — and HBM4 prices may jump ~65% next year. |
Businesskorea reports Samsung and SK hynix are both accelerating HBM production. SK hynix is lifting M15X toward roughly 80,000 wafers a month and pulling Yongin's first cleanroom forward. Coverage still puts next-year HBM demand growth near 56% above supply growth near 50%, with HBM4 prices potentially ~65% higher YoY. |
Who keeps Nvidia and AMD allocation when Samsung tons arrive — and can SK hynix defend scarcity pricing? |
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Who benefits: memory makers collecting scarcity rent, and customers with multi-year HBM contracts. Who is exposed: AI accelerator programs still waiting on qualified HBM, and SK hynix margins if Samsung's ramp softens pricing power. What could prove this wrong: a faster Samsung ramp, a demand miss, or Yongin slipping. |
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THE LONG GAME |
Every accelerator roadmap that adds HBM per GPU tightens the same market the fabs are racing to expand. Allocation still decides which AI program ships on schedule. |
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— Knox Bennett, Lead Strategist, Strategic Compute |
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This email may contain paid advertisements and affiliate links. |
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