Through the first half of 2026, investors faced no shortage of reasons for caution—renewed conflict in the Middle East, oil prices spiking, Treasury yields climbing past 4%, and a Federal Reserve under new leadership. Stocks rallied anyway. Our Q3 2026 Market Commentary1 offers our views on why: Corporate earnings have continued to surprise to the upside, often by a lot. First-quarter S&P 500 earnings grew nearly 30% year-over-year, and profit margins reached their highest level in at least a decade. We also look at how a stabilizing labor market, moderating inflation, and a new Fed chairman are shaping the outlook for the second half of the year. Topics in this report include: |
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