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Reliability is the product |
A Georgia plant. Still no commercial board. |
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⚡ THE SETUP |
Tom's Hardware, August 27: glass-core in final qualification, not in a single commercial product. SKC July 27: Absolics embedded samples in package-level reliability eval in Taiwan. Herald, August 21: Absolics ₩400B (about $287M) paid-in raise for customer evaluation, certification, and yield kit. Embedding product in reliability testing. SKC 70.05%, Applied Materials 29.95%. Originally first-half 2024 mass production. Public target still end of 2026. Herald talks next year. The dates do not agree. Elon Musk's New AI Agent, Demonstrated What it does, who built it, and the listed companies Brown believes sit closest to it. (From Brownstone Research)
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Reliability is the product. |
The plant is not. |
Absolics has a $600 million line in Covington, Georgia. It does not have a commercial board. |
Tom's Hardware, August 27, has the roadmap. Glass-core is in final qualification. Still not in a single commercial product. SKC's July 27 call put Absolics embedded-glass samples in a package-level reliability eval in Taiwan. |
Herald, August 21, has the raise. About ₩400 billion, roughly $287 million, paid-in for customer evaluation, certification, and yield kit. The embedding product sits in reliability testing. Non-embedding is in a second-half 2026 supplier-selection process. SKC holds 70.05 percent. Applied Materials holds 29.95 percent. |
The dates do not agree. Absolics originally targeted first-half 2024 mass production. The public target is still the end of 2026. Herald talks next year. HTX, August 24, is a reprint of a WeChat note and puts mass production possibly after 2028. |
CHIPS Act money sits on the same site. $75 million, plus $100 million in advanced-packaging research with Georgia Tech. Phase 1 is 12,000 square meters a year, enough for roughly two to three million H100-sized packages. Mass-production samples were due in the first quarter of 2026. A plant can stand and the eval can still fail. |
MIT Technology Review, via Tom's, has the early runs. Hundreds of panels broke every couple of days. Edge-coating cut measured edge stress from 95 megapascals to 49. |
SEMI, in May, via Tom's: initial glass-core production around 2028 in select high-performance compute. No production design exists. |
GlaSSEM is color. Samsung Electro-Mechanics at 66 percent, Dongwoo Fine-Chem of Sumitomo at 34 percent, ₩482.1 billion, Pyeongtaek, a supply-system goal in the second half of 2027 fiscal year. That is not a commercial Absolics board. |
The eval is still the product. |
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📊 BY THE NUMBERS |
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paid-in raise for eval and yield kit (Herald) |
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original mass-production target, still not a commercial product (Tom's) |
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The yield problem this morning is an eval, not a plant tour. |
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The plant is not the product. The eval is. |
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A standing plant does not reprint a reliability result. |
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🔎 THE SECOND DERIVATIVE |
The Elec has KCTech as the sole supplier of glass-substrate CMP equipment and slurry into that Georgia line. Shipments as early as the fourth quarter of 2026. About ₩7 to 8 billion per tool. First time that CMP leaves the silicon wafer. Slurry is the recurring line. The polish, not the plant tour. |
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⚖️ THE COUNTER |
The foil is the plant tour, or the date gap. About 10 times the interconnect density versus organic. Warpage about half. Commercial Intel glass around 2030. Amkor said within three years. A panel-first line has glass under review. |
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👀 WHAT TO WATCH |
Watch whether Absolics publishes package-level reliability results. Watch the second-half 2026 non-embedding supplier-selection. Monday August 31 is Chips. |
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— Knox Bennett, Lead Strategist, Strategic Compute |
P.S. If the replacement is still in eval, do you sit with the plant or the polish? Reply and tell me. |
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