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Urgent Warning: "These 7 Stocks Could Fall 50% or More" |
AI stocks have fueled one of the market's biggest rallies. |
But some analysts believe valuations have reached dangerous levels. |
In fact, one veteran researcher has identified seven stocks he believes could be vulnerable to major declines if expectations begin to crack. |
Some are household names. A few may already be in your portfolio. |
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A year of not touching the mix 🥊 |
A plain sixty-forty, twelve months later — what the drift looks like, and what a rebalance actually does. |
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A plain sixty-forty account set at the start of the year and left alone would have drifted a couple of points by now, most likely toward equities. That is not a failure of the mix. That is the mix working. Equities compound faster than bonds most years, and a decent year for stocks pulls the split wider on its own, before anything is bought or sold. |
Two ways to think about what to do with the drift. One is to rebalance on a schedule — the same date every year, regardless of what the market did — which mechanically sells the winner and adds a little to the laggard. The other is to let contributions do it: if new savings go entirely to the underweight side until the split comes back, no sale is needed. Both work. Both take the timing question off the table. |
For an income portfolio the arithmetic is a little different. The dividend equities pay whether or not you rebalance, and the bond side pays on the coupon schedule it was set to. Neither line item cares what the split says. What the split does change is what the next drawdown feels like — a wider equity share means a bigger paper loss the year the market has one, and paper losses feel bigger than they read on a screen. |
The reason to prefer a schedule over a mood is that it is the one decision you get to make when nothing is happening. William Bengen wrote in 1994 that the order returns arrive in matters more than the average return, and a rebalance you never made because the market was loud is a decision you will feel later. |
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☕ TOGETHER WITH GOOD MORNING ALERTS |
The day's calendar, before it becomes the day's news |
Half of what moves a session is on a public calendar before the open — the prints, the speakers, the scheduled numbers. Most people find out after the fact. Good Morning Alerts sends what is on the schedule, plus the overnight moves, early enough to be useful. Free, short, and no pretense that it is anything more than a briefing. |
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(From Good Morning Alerts) |
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One line from next week's income calendar, and where the yields sit relative to the 10-year. |
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💵 INCOME WATCH |
Declared — a quiet declarations day yesterday on the watchlist. Nothing new on the wire from the blue-chip payers. |
Ex-dates ahead (next 5 sessions) — Johnson & Johnson goes ex Tuesday Aug 25 at $1.34 a share, payable September 8; declared July 15. A quiet week otherwise for the blue-chip watchlist. |
Yield check — the 10-year sits near 4.64% (Fed H.15, 8/20). SCHD's forward rate of $1.047 puts its trailing yield near 3.0%, a gap of about 1.6 points to the Treasury. |
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One name on file — a portrait of a fund that has paid quarterly since the year Occupy Wall Street started. |
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🧾 THE STEADY · SCHD |
The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF has paid a quarterly distribution every quarter since it launched in October 2011 — fourteen years of uninterrupted payments, with the next one due in September. The amount moves with what the underlying holdings distribute, so recent post-split quarterlies have run $0.2569, $0.2782, $0.2604, $0.2602 — not a straight line, but paid on the schedule. The filed forward annual rate is $1.047 a share, which has been running near a 3.0% yield against a 52-week range of $26.32 to $35.31. It is a rules-based index of dividend growers, not a hand-picked list. That is what makes it a building block. |
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What's on the calendar for Monday, into the Fed week ahead. |
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📅 TOMORROW'S CALENDAR |
Mon Aug 24 · 8:30 a.m. ET — Chicago Fed National Activity Index. A quiet macro morning to open the week. |
Tue Aug 25 — JNJ goes ex-dividend at $1.34; owners of record collect on the September 8 payable date. |
Wed Aug 27 (evening) — Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium opens. Warsh's keynote is scheduled for Friday morning. |
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Have you checked your stock-and-bond split against your target this year, or is it still the number you set last time you looked? Drop me a reply — I read every note. |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
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