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Anthropic Filed. Here’s How to Get Exposure Before the IPO. |
Anthropic just confidentially filed for an IPO. |
And while Wall Street waits for the public debut, there may already be another way in. |
One publicly traded vehicle lists Anthropic as its largest holding — and also holds stakes in private tech giants Databricks and Anduril. |
No accredited-investor status. No waiting for an IPO. It trades through an ordinary brokerage account. |
Three private AI/tech giants. One public ticker. |
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🛢️ Congress sold the emergency reserve to pay for roads |
Two budget bills, one emergency drawdown, and a reserve that costs more to refill than it raised to sell. |
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The board first, then the paperwork. |
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🪙 HARD MONEY CHECK |
Thursday, August 27 closes, measured against the July 31 close. |
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$62.77, up 19.9% from $52.36 on July 31. Silver is the industrial half of hard money, and it moved twice as far as gold did in the same month. |
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$103.69, up 39.9% from $74.10 on July 31. The producers outran the metal by a wide margin. That is what operating leverage looks like when it finally turns. |
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$82.035, up 0.3% from $81.7492 on July 31. The front end went almost nowhere. Treasury still has to roll it, and roll it, and roll it. |
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One hundred and twenty-four million barrels. That is the amount two ordinary budget bills authorized the government to sell out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and not one barrel of it had anything to do with an oil emergency. |
The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015, signed November 2 of that year, authorized 58 million barrels. The FAST Act, signed December 4, authorized 66 million more to help fund the Highway Trust Fund. The 21st Century Cures Act followed in 2016 with another tranche. In every case the mechanism was identical: barrels became receipts, receipts became offsetting revenue, and a spending bill scored cheaper than it was. |
An emergency reserve that funds highways is not an emergency reserve. It is a savings account Congress found easier to spend than to defend, and the statute is the receipt. Nobody had to leak anything. |
Start the clock at the beginning. The Energy Policy and Conservation Act, signed December 22, 1975, created the reserve in the wake of the 1973-74 embargo, with authority to hold up to one billion barrels. Fifty years later it has never held that much, and Congress has legislated sales out of it as budget offsets more than once since 2015. The design was insurance. The practice became financing. |
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🧾 THE RECEIPT |
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The Energy Policy and Conservation Act creates the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after the 1973-74 embargo, with authority to hold up to one billion barrels. Source: P.L. 94-163. |
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The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 authorizes the sale of 58 million barrels of reserve crude as a budget offset. Source: P.L. 114-74; CRS Report R45577, Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Mandated Sales and Reform. |
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The FAST Act authorizes the sale of 66 million barrels, tied to funding for the Highway Trust Fund. Source: P.L. 114-94; CRS Report R45577. |
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The largest emergency drawdown in the reserve's history is announced: 180 million barrels. Source: U.S. Department of Energy. |
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DOE states the 2022 emergency sales averaged $95 a barrel; that it directly repurchased 59 million barrels at an average under $76; that it secured 140 million more by working with Congress to cancel mandated sales at roughly $74; and that of $16.95 billion in emergency-sale revenue, $2.05 billion was rescinded by Congress for deficit offset. Source: Department of Energy press release, November 8, 2024. |
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Two documents, one argument. The statutes say what the reserve was allowed to become. The department's own press release says what it cost. |
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⏱️ SINCE THEY SAID IT |
"With the awarding of these contracts, DOE has fully utilized all funding allocated for crude oil purchases following the sale of 180 million barrels in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and secured 20 million more barrels at a good price for taxpayers." |
— Jennifer M. Granholm, U.S. Secretary of Energy, Department of Energy press release, November 8, 2024. |
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+77.8% · $73.13 close 11/8/24 → $130.01 close Thu 8/27/26. USO tracks front-month WTI futures, not spot. |
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+40.4% · $44.37 close 11/8/24 → $62.29 close Thu 8/27/26. Adjusted closes. |
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+37.7% · $113.59 close 11/8/24 → $156.44 close Thu 8/27/26. Adjusted closes. |
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The barrels bought are on the books at under $76. The ones not bought have been repricing ever since. |
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Then came the drawdown itself, and it deserves a fair hearing. On March 31, 2022 the government announced the largest release in the reserve's history, 180 million barrels, into a genuine supply shock. That one I will defend on the merits. That is what the reserve is for. |
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An emergency reserve that funds highways is not an emergency reserve. |
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Give the department its due here. The buyback that did happen was well executed. Under $76 against a $95 sale is a good trade in anyone's book, and I will say so plainly. The problem is the $2.05 billion that never came back, and the barrels it would have bought. Insurance you partially cash out is not insurance you still own. |
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ADVERTISEMENT · STANSBERRY RESEARCH |
A former hedge-fund manager names one AI and energy holding |
Whitney Tilson ran money professionally before he turned to research, and his current argument sits at the point where electricity demand and AI capacity collide rather than on the chip names everyone already owns. He gives away the company and the ticker in a report, with the reasoning attached, which at least lets you check the thinking before you decide what you make of it. |
Get this report |
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk of loss including total loss of principal. Not investment advice. |
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What the next number tells you |
Every Wednesday the Energy Information Administration publishes its weekly petroleum status report, and one line in it is the reserve's crude stocks. It is the least dramatic number in energy and the only one that settles this argument, because it is a level rather than an intention. |
Watch it against the statute rather than against the news. A reserve that rises when crude is cheap and holds when crude is dear is being run as insurance. A reserve that falls whenever a spending bill needs an offset is being run as a line item, and fifty years of legislative history says which of those is the default. |
📅 WHAT TO WATCH |
Wednesday, September 2, the EIA weekly petroleum status report, and the reserve's crude stocks line inside it. |
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Is the reserve a strategic asset or a budget offset? Reply and put a number on it. |
— Jack Garrison, Senior Contributor |
P.S.: Markets do not sleep. Good Morning Alerts catches you up on the overnight before the bell — free.
(From Good Morning Alerts) |
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