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5 Stocks. 4 Sectors. Something Is Starting to Shift. |
One is in biotech. Another is tied to energy. Others sit in defense and critical infrastructure. |
On the surface, they have little in common. |
But right now, each is approaching a catalyst that could change what investors are willing to pay for it. |
We've put all five into one new report—including what's changing and what we're watching next. |
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🌟 Rates, bonds, and what a 4.73% coupon changes |
The dividend stream and the coupon stream are two different animals. Tonight, what the arithmetic actually says. |
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🌙 TONIGHT’S NUMBERS |
4.73%
The 10-year Treasury yield as of the Aug 18 session, roughly a basis point higher than the prior day. |
3.05%
SCHD’s forward annual dividend yield on its filed forward rate of $1.047 a share. |
(From Oxford) — one income framework worth reading at today’s rates. See it here. |
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A 10-year Treasury sitting at 4.73% is not exotic in the sweep of history, but it is the highest sustained level a lot of retirees have seen in their working lives. William Bengen built the 4% withdrawal rule in 1994 around the order in which returns arrive, not the average return. When the risk-free line moves higher, the arithmetic behind that rule quietly loosens for the plans built around it. |
Here is one way to hold that. A Treasury bought today pays 4.73% until it matures, no matter what the S&P 500 does. A share of a broad dividend ETF pays a distribution that has generally risen year over year, from the same companies that also compound their earnings. The bond is an income floor. The ETF is an income stream. Both are useful. The mistake is picking one because the coupon looks larger this month. |
The choice worth thinking about, on a Tuesday evening in August, is not which one to own. It is what happens to new money when it arrives. |
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ADVERTISEMENT · OXFORD |
The setup one analyst calls a “plain simple utility” for income |
A straightforward income framework, small in number of holdings and clear in what each one is doing. Worth a read for any holder rethinking their income mix at today’s rates. |
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The income calendar this week is the quieter kind. |
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💵 INCOME WATCH |
Declared. Quiet day on the declarations front among the widely-held blue chips. |
Ex-dates ahead. Nothing landing in the next five trading days from the core watchlist that a diversified income holder needs to act on. |
Yield check. The 10-year Treasury closed near 4.73%. A broad dividend ETF like SCHD is running at a 3.05% forward yield on its filed $1.047 forward rate. The gap has been roughly the same all summer. |
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And a portrait of a name that has done what it says on the tin. |
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🧾 THE STEADY |
SCHD — Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF. |
Uninterrupted quarterly distributions since the fund launched in 2011, roughly fifteen years without a missed payment. After the October 2024 three-for-one split, the last six quarterly payments have run: $0.2488, $0.2602, $0.2604, $0.2782, $0.2569, $0.2525. Steady, but not a march higher. Forward rate $1.047 a share, which pencils to roughly a 3.05% yield against a 10-year Treasury near 4.73%. The 52-week range is $26.32 to $34.54, and it closed Monday at $34.29. It is a core income holding, not an income solution. |
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📅 TOMORROW’S CALENDAR |
8:30 ET. Housing starts and building permits for July. The number to watch is single-family starts, which tell you more about consumer demand than the multifamily line. |
2:00 ET. FOMC minutes from the July meeting. The minutes carry a three-week lag by design, adopted in December 2004; the vote split is the piece worth reading. |
After the close. Target reports. Not a dividend-calendar event, but a read on the middle of the American consumer. |
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Do you keep new cash flowing into the bond side or the dividend side right now? Reply and tell me — I read every note. |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
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ADVERTISEMENT · STOCKS.NEWS |
P.S. A quiet-inbox tool for tracking dividend-name news — have a look. |
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