On June 22, the President signed two executive orders in a single Oval Office ceremony.
No primetime address. No headlines.
But together, they set in motion the biggest change to American money since 1974.
The last time this happened, it was sealed with a secret handshake in a Saudi desert. The public didn’t find out for 41 years.
This time, one $20 American company sits at the center of it. And the government just moved to take an ownership stake.
Former Wall Street banker Dylan Jovine spent 8 months tracing this story through private meetings with Congressmen. What he found should alarm you… and could make you a fortune.
Exclusive Headlines
Home Depot's Tariff Refund Was Worth Triple Its Earnings Beat
Home Depot beat consensus on revenue and earnings and operating margin still went backwards. A $685 million tariff refund ran through cost of goods sold in the quarter, worth roughly 52 cents a share after tax. The adjusted earnings beat was about 19 cents. Shares traded more than 2% higher pre-market, then gave back most of the gain to finish up less than 1%.
Gross margin came in at 33.7%, up about 25 basis points. The refund alone contributed roughly 145 basis points. Strip out the refund and the underlying gross margin trend was down, not up. Operating margin fell to 14.3% from 14.5%. Gross margin rose 25 basis points while operating margin fell 20. UBS's Michael Lasser asked whether Home Depot missed its own underlying profitability plan once the refund is removed. Management said results would have exceeded expectations regardless.
Total comparable sales rose 1.7% with U.S. comps up 1.3%. The monthly cadence improved from 1.2% in May to 2.3% in July. Comparable average ticket rose 2.8%. Comparable transactions fell 1.0%. Customers are spending more per visit while visiting less often. Merchandising chief Billy Bastek described customers who "continue to engage in smaller, repair and maintenance projects" while "larger discretionary projects remain under pressure."
Total sales rose 5.7% to $47.861 billion. Only 1.7 points came from comparable sales. The rest came from acquisitions and new stores. Trailing twelve-month return on invested capital fell to 24.8% from 27.2%. Growth is arriving with lower returns.
Management reaffirmed every full-year metric despite a quarter that ran above the midpoint. CFO Richard McPhail pointed to housing conditions he called frozen, noting turnover "has never been lower as a percentage of the housing stock" and "there's just no sign of an inflection point."
The refund does not repeat at this scale. Q3 gross margin is the cleanest read investors will get on whether the underlying trend is improving or eroding. Home Depot argued it is winning share inside a bad market. The next quarter, without a refund inside it, is where that claim gets priced.
Lowe's Comp Streak Is Being Carried by Contractors, Not Homeowners
Lowe's notched its fifth straight quarter of positive comparable sales and beat on earnings. Revenue missed. Full-year guidance moved to the low end of every range the company had given itself. A meaningful piece of the earnings beat came from a tariff refund that will not repeat.
Adjusted diluted EPS of $4.40 beat the $4.22 consensus by roughly 4%. GAAP diluted EPS came in at $4.27, flat against the same quarter last year. Adjusted EPS excludes roughly $96 million of costs tied to Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group acquisitions, and separately includes an approximately $0.11-per-share benefit from tariff refunds worth roughly $80 million. Strip that refund out and the adjusted beat shrinks close to in-line. Revenue of $25.956 billion missed the $26.1 billion consensus by about 0.7%, even though it grew 8.3% year over year, a growth rate that itself depends heavily on the acquisitions.
Comparable sales rose 0.2%. CEO Marvin Ellison credited "sustained growth in Pro, Online and Home Services" while acknowledging "pressure in discretionary DIY spending." Online sales grew 15.7%, the fastest-growing channel. The parts of Lowe's built around professional contractors, digital sales, and installation services are growing. The traditional homeowner walking into a store to buy paint is spending less.
Full-year guidance narrowed by removing the upside rather than cutting the range. Sales guidance narrowed to approximately $92 billion from $92 to $94 billion. Comparable sales narrowed to flat from flat-to-2%. Adjusted EPS narrowed to approximately $12.25 from $12.25 to $12.75. Every range kept the low end and cut the top. Management explicitly assumes no repeat of the tariff-refund benefit in the second half.
Lowe's has built a credible growth engine around Pro, online, and installation. That engine carried five straight quarters through soft discretionary home spending. Revenue still missed. GAAP profit did not grow. Management narrowed rather than reaffirmed its outlook, all in a quarter that included a one-time tailwind. The next quarter, without a refund inside it and with acquisitions in the base comparison, is where the growth story gets tested.
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