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Who Wins the AI Race? These 9 Stocks May Not Care. |
ChatGPT. Gemini. Claude. Tomorrow, it could be someone else. |
But every AI platform needs the same essentials: chips, power, cooling, networking, and data centers. |
That's why we've identified 9 publicly traded companies positioned across the infrastructure AI needs—regardless of which model comes out on top. |
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🏦 What a Treasury buyback actually does |
The Treasury's expanded buyback program has drawn a lot of noise this week. For an income portfolio, the mechanic matters more than the headlines — and which bond exposure you own matters most of all. |
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🌙 TONIGHT'S NUMBERS |
TLT $82.56 — the 20-year Treasury proxy closed Monday up 51 cents on the session, its second straight gain into the Treasury-buyback debate. |
SPY $763.47 — the broad index finished Monday off just 22 cents, a quiet session ahead of Wednesday's Nvidia print and Friday's PCE. |
From Brownstone Research: The one ticker Larry Benedict says is sitting directly in the path of the next policy move. See what it is → |
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The Treasury announced an expansion of its buyback program last week, and the response has been outsized. The mechanic is simple. The Treasury buys back older, less-liquid off-the-run bonds — the ones issued years ago that trade thinly — and sells fresh on-the-run bonds in current tenors to replace them. The net effect on the total stock of debt is zero. The effect on market plumbing is not zero: older bonds come out of dealer inventory, newer bonds go in, and the yield curve at the long end tends to flatten slightly as demand for the older paper firms up. What it does not do is change the amount of federal debt outstanding, which is what most of the loud headlines are actually reacting to. |
Stanley Druckenmiller's public criticism of the program this week — that it amounts to a form of yield-curve management without the Federal Reserve running it — is worth listening to. His point is that a Treasury choosing when and how to refinance is also choosing where along the curve pressure ends up. That is a policy decision, and calling it plumbing does not make it neutral. What the Druckenmiller frame does not do is turn a buyback into an emergency. The 2000–2002 Treasury buyback program under Robert Rubin and Larry Summers retired roughly $67 billion of debt during the Clinton-surplus years, drew similar criticism at the time, and passed with limited disruption. Different context, surpluses then and deficits now, same mechanic. |
The practical question for an income portfolio is which side of the mechanic you sit on. A holder of a laddered Treasury book — four-, five-, seven-year rungs bought at auction and held to maturity — is largely insulated. Coupons were set at issuance and the maturity date is the date. What the curve does in between is a chart, not a cash flow. A holder of TLT, EDV or a long-duration bond fund is not insulated the same way. Those NAVs move with long-end yields, and duration cuts both directions — during the 2013 taper tantrum TLT fell from roughly $124 in April to $101 by September, a decline of about 19% over five months. This debate is a good moment to check which of those two positions describes your bond exposure, and whether the answer matches what you thought you owned. |
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ADVERTISEMENT · GOOD MORNING ALERTS |
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The market brief that lands before your first coffee |
Good Morning Alerts goes out early, while the tape is still quiet. What moved overnight, what prints today, and the levels worth watching before the open, in the time it takes to read a page. No hype, no hard sell. Same publisher, same standards. It is free, and you can leave whenever you want. |
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(From Good Morning Alerts) |
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💵 INCOME WATCH |
Declared. Quiet day on the declarations front. The most recent watchlist declaration was Realty Income's monthly on Aug 18 at 27.1 cents, unchanged. |
Ex-dates ahead. NextEra Energy (NEE) goes ex Fri Aug 28 at $0.6232 (declared Jul 30, payable Sep 15). Realty Income (O) goes ex Mon Aug 31 at $0.271 (declared Aug 18, monthly, payable Sep 15). |
Yield check. The 10-year Treasury has been trading near 4.6%. Schwab's dividend-equity ETF SCHD carries a forward yield near 3.0%. The gap between them is what the buyback debate above is about, in one line. |
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One name in the utility corner of a defensive book earns its own paragraph tonight. |
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🧾 THE STEADY |
WEC Energy Group (WEC) |
WEC has raised its dividend every year on the visible record, from 49.5 cents a quarter in late 2016 to 95.25 cents today, most recently declared July 16, 2026. The current forward rate is $3.81 a share, which has been running near a 3.5% yield against a stock that closed Monday at $107.58, inside a 52-week range of $102.95 to $119.91. The payout ratio sits at 72%. What kind of holding it is: a Wisconsin utility with a beta below 0.5, held by conservative income accounts as a bond-proxy rather than as growth. Worth knowing what you own. |
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And the day calendar for tomorrow. |
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📅 TOMORROW'S CALENDAR |
Wed 8:30 a.m. ET — Second look at Q2 GDP. Watch whether the consumer contribution is revised, since that is the line the Treasury debate cares about. |
Wed 10:00 a.m. ET — New home sales for July. A soft print keeps rate-cut talk on the table. |
Wed 4:20 p.m. ET — Nvidia Q2 earnings. Data-center revenue growth and any 2027 customer capex commentary are what matter for a diversified holder. |
Fri 8:30 a.m. ET — PCE inflation for July, the Fed's preferred gauge. A cool print gives the case for cuts a lift. |
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Do you hold your bonds through TLT, through a laddered book, or through CDs? I'd like to hear it — just reply. |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
P.S. Wall Street spent months on the SpaceX S-1 and saw rockets and Starlink. Stansberry's analyst went to Starbase, Texas, and thinks the money is in a different part of the filing. See the piece → (Ad) |
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