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Millions of Users. $115M+ Revenue. And You Can Still Get In Pre-IPO. |
Most investors don't hear about breakout companies until after they hit the public markets. |
This one is different. |
It has already attracted millions of users and generated more than $115 million in revenue—yet investors can still buy shares before a potential IPO. |
If this company becomes the next pre-IPO name everyone talks about, today's window could look very different in hindsight. |
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🛒 The four prints that walk in red |
Home Depot after the close tonight. Target and Lowe's Wednesday morning. Walmart Thursday. Four of the biggest retailers on the tape, all lower into their own prints, on a Monday the retail ETF closed red for the third straight session. |
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⚡ FIRST 90 SECONDS |
HD closed $337.88 Monday, down $16.60 from Aug 11's $354.48 into tonight's print. A stock that traded 4.7% lower into its own earnings is not one investors were leaning long on. XRT closed $87.54, down 1.59% Monday and lower all three sessions from Aug 12. The retail ETF started selling before the wave, not after. Seven private names analysts are watching before they trade. (Ad)
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The setup is specific and it is not about any single retailer. Four of the biggest square-foot names on the tape report in the next three sessions. HD after the close tonight. TGT and LOW before the open Wednesday. WMT before the open Thursday. Between now and Friday morning, the market gets a fresh read on the U.S. consumer four times. |
What matters is the way the tape walked into it. HD is down 4.7% since Aug 11 and closed Monday at $337.88, its lowest print in a week. TGT is down $3.47 in two sessions to $151.01. LOW gave back $2.66 Monday to close $215.81. WMT is off from Aug 12's $116.01 to Monday's $114.33 on above-average volume. And XRT, the broad retail ETF, printed its third consecutive red session at $87.54. Buyers are not showing up to defend the group before the numbers land. |
The way to read that is not that the prints will be bad. The way to read that is that the market is not going to give retail credit for a good print unless the print is unambiguous. A HD comp in line does not get a rally back to $354. It gets a small green day and a sell-into-strength. A miss on the comp gets read through into TGT and LOW inside 36 hours, and into WMT inside 60. The tape has already decided the direction of the read. Only the size is unknown. |
The line to watch on HD tonight is $340. That was Aug 14's high and Monday's post-close ceiling. Any print reaction that opens above $340 Wednesday and holds it into lunch says the walk-in was wrong and the group has room. Any print reaction that opens under $335 and stays there says the tape was right to sell first. TGT's number Wednesday morning then either amplifies or bounds it. If HD leaks and TGT confirms, the WMT print Thursday becomes the whole week's tell for whether the consumer story broke or bent. |
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📈 BY THE NUMBERS |
$337.88
HD Monday close, $16.60 below Aug 11's $354.48 walk-in. Down four of the last five sessions into tonight's print. |
3
Consecutive red sessions for XRT, the retail ETF. Aug 12 was the last green day and Monday's $87.54 close undercut it. |
60hr
Between HD's after-close print tonight and WMT's pre-open print Thursday. Four prints, three sessions, one consumer read. |
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The tape does not need to be right about the print. It needs to be positioned. Monday shows retail was not positioned for a positive one. |
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🔥 THE STREAK BOARD |
Streaks alive into Monday's close: |
None. The two names carrying a second green day into Friday — MP Materials and USAR — both broke their streaks Monday. MP closed $58.51 (-0.4%) on lighter volume, USAR $19.29 (-3.6%). No name printed a third consecutive green session on rising volume. The board comes back the day the tape stops giving Monday back. |
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The second story that belongs on this page |
NBIS is doing the job the other two Friday names could not. Monday's close of $268.85 held the $255 floor by $13.85, and Monday's low of $263.82 never even challenged it. Volume shrank from Friday's 29 million to Monday's 19.7 million. That is the specific shape of a hold — a giveback the market did not want to press. |
The setup that matters is whether NBIS can go four more sessions above $255 without volume expansion on a down day. If that happens, the Aug 12 gap from $226 to $259 becomes the new base and the whole month gets re-read as a repricing rather than a euphoria bar. If $255 breaks on a volume up-day, the same gap gets marked as exhaustion and the mean-reversion trade wakes up. Same test as RDDT and NU. One week ahead, one week already ruled. |
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⌛ THE 48-HOUR CLOCK |
HD prints tonight after the close. TGT and LOW report before the open Wednesday. That is three of the four retail tells inside the next 40 hours. If HD's Q2 comp lands below the +1.0% Street bar, the Wednesday tape reads the miss through the whole group before management opens the mic. |
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Is HD tonight the print you would fade regardless, or does the retail ETF's three-day slide already tell you which way the group opens Wednesday? Reply and tell me. |
— Cal Torres, Markets Editor |
P.S. Vincere Portfolios has documented $120,000 to nearly $2 million across 70+ months of live trading, every month posted publicly. The full record is here. Paid advertisement. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Performance figures are past results of the advertiser's own program and do not guarantee future results. Individual results will vary. |
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