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🪜 A full point for twenty-eight more years |
What the gap between the 2-year and the 30-year asks of an income portfolio. |
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🌙 TONIGHT'S NUMBERS |
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where the 2-year Treasury closed on Monday, August 10. |
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where the 30-year closed the same afternoon, roughly a point higher. |
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Two numbers from Monday afternoon, August 10. The 2-year Treasury finished at 4.24%. The 30-year finished at 5.25%. That is a little over a full percentage point of extra yield in exchange for twenty-eight additional years of commitment. For an income portfolio, that spread is the whole question, and the choice is quieter than it looks. |
Take the long end and you fix your income for a generation, which sounds like the safe answer until you remember what else you are accepting. If yields rise from here, the market value of that bond falls, and only patience or a maturity date brings it back. The short end has the opposite problem. It pays about a point less, and in two years you have to reinvest at whatever rate exists then. That is reinvestment risk, and it is why a 4.24% two-year is not automatically the careful choice. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive, has spent several years telling shareholders the bank plans for a wide range of rates, including materially higher long-term ones. That is a bank's problem and a retiree's problem written in the same sentence. |
The cost of getting this wrong is documented rather than theoretical. In early August 2020, with the 10-year yield under 0.6%, the long Treasury fund TLT traded above $170. By October 2023 it traded below $85. Anyone who locked long duration at 2020 yields watched more than half the market value go, even as the coupons arrived on time every six months. The coupons were fine. The principal was not. Neither end of the curve is a free choice, which is the honest argument for a ladder. A ladder does not maximize anything. It just keeps you from having to be right about the shape of the curve. |
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk of loss including total loss of principal. Not investment advice. |
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Now to what was actually filed. |
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💵 INCOME WATCH |
Declared. Quiet day on the declarations front. The most recent filed action of note is Ingram Micro's, announced July 30: a third-quarter dividend of $0.086 a share, a 2.4% step up from $0.084. |
Ex-dates ahead. Nothing confirmed among widely held income names inside the next five trading days. S&P Global's third-quarter dividend of $0.97, declared June 22, carries an August 26 record date and pays September 10, which puts its ex-date later this month rather than this week. |
Yield check. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.72% on Monday, August 10. The 30-year closed at 5.25% and the 2-year at 4.24%. |
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Tomorrow, in order. |
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📅 TOMORROW'S CALENDAR |
Wednesday is the heavier of the two days. The July Consumer Price Index arrives at 8:30 in the morning, Eastern time, and it is worth reading twice, once for shelter and services and once as the first of the three readings that will set next year's Social Security adjustment. Mortgage applications land at 7:00, which is the quietest useful read on whether higher long rates are reaching households. The weekly petroleum status report follows at 10:30, and crude has been the loudest input into inflation expectations this summer. |
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When the long bond pays a point more, do you take it or stay short? Hit reply. |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
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