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The Biggest Energy Story Isn't Oil Anymore |
Oil prices fell the moment Iran returned to the market. |
But the biggest energy opportunity may have nothing to do with the Middle East. |
Beneath American soil sits an energy source the IEA says could meet global demand 140 times over. |
Google already signed a 15-year agreement. |
Bill Gates invested. |
And a recent policy shift could accelerate adoption. |
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📖 The One Number to Read Wednesday Morning 🕗 |
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🔢 TONIGHT'S NUMBERS |
8:30 a.m.
Eastern time Wednesday, when the July CPI is published |
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$125.0B
Government debt sold Tuesday through Thursday, setting competing yields |
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Sep 15–16
The Federal Reserve meeting this print feeds into |
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If you read one thing before Monday, make it Wednesday's inflation report. And not the headline number. |
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for July at 8:30 in the morning, Eastern time, on Wednesday the 12th. The news will lead with a single figure, one year against the year before. That figure is honestly the least useful part of the release for somebody living on income. |
Here is what I would read instead, and why. |
Look for the shelter line. Housing costs are the largest single component of the index, and they move slowly — which means shelter tells you where the trend is heading rather than where it has already been. A cooling shelter number tends to pull long-term interest rates down over the following months, and long-term rates are what a dividend payer quietly competes against for your dollar. |
Then look at services excluding energy. That is the part of inflation driven by wages rather than by oil or by shipping costs, and it is the part the Federal Reserve watches most closely when it decides whether to move rates at all. If services are still warm, the Fed has a reason to sit still, whatever the headline says. |
Those two lines will tell you more about what your income holdings are worth six months from now than the number every front page is going to print. |
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📌 THE HOMEWORK ITEM |
The item
Consumer Price Index for July, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics |
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When it arrives
Wed 8/12
8:30 a.m. ET |
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What to look for
The shelter component, and services excluding energy. Those two move long-term rates, and long-term rates are what income holdings compete against. |
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There is one more thing in that same release, published at the same hour, that almost nobody mentions. Real Earnings for July comes out Wednesday at 8:30 as well. It takes average wages and adjusts them for the inflation the CPI has just measured — in plain terms, whether people's pay actually bought more or less than it did a year ago. For anyone retired or close to it, that is a useful sanity check on the whole cost-of-living conversation, and it costs nothing to read. |
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A word on proportion, because it is easy to over-read a single month. One print does not reset anything. The Federal Reserve sees four pieces of data between now and its September meeting, and Wednesday's is simply the first of them. What you are doing on Wednesday morning is not reacting to anything — it is collecting one of four data points, and there is no decision that has to be made before September 16. |
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📅 THE INCOME WEEK |
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July CPI and Real Earnings. Look for shelter and for services excluding energy. |
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Treasury sells $42 billion of ten-year notes. Look for whether buyers accept the yield the morning's figure implies. |
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July Producer Price Index. Look for whether costs are building before they reach the shelf. |
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Applied Materials reports. Not an income name, but the largest scheduled company report of the week. |
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The homework: Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Find the shelter line and the services line before you read anybody's summary of the report. |
When the CPI lands Wednesday, which line in it are you actually reading first? I'd like to know. |
P.S. — Our own briefing on the SpaceX listing and what it changed, free to read. |
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— Randy Cole, Editor |
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