 In 1975, the Fed raised rates… and gold fell 50%. Every newspaper in the country wrote the same obituary: The gold bull is dead. But gold’s funeral never came. Instead… What came next was the greatest bull run in modern history. Gold ran from $100 in 1976 to $850 in 1980… A 750% gain in less than five years. Go here to see the parallels between today and the 1970s Even better, certain gold miners would have absolutely made you rich – even from a tiny stake.
- Carolin Mines: 1,738%
- Eagle River: 3,478%
- Silverado Mines: 3,988%
- Goliath Gold: 7,011%
- And Golden Sceptre: 7,650%
Now, look what’s happening today... The new Fed chair mentioned he might raise rates… How are investors reacting? Like the bull market in gold is over. It’s the same Fed… the same rate hike fears… and the same crowd screaming gold’s bull market is finished. They say history doesn't repeat… But it does rhyme. The folks who panicked in 1975 and sold the bottom… were stricken with regret when gold broke out and ran 750% higher. While the people who understood the setup… backed up the truck on the best gold miners… and made off with a generational fortune. Today, this “rhyme” will play out the way it did before. Gold bull markets don’t end this way. The pullback is a fakeout – just like in 1975. The Fed is trapped and cannot raise rates to break inflation. It’s 1975 all over again. So which investor will you be? The seller at the bottom... Or the buyer who saw it coming – and reaped a potential fortune? My name is Garrett Goggin and my top four picks are already up 1,200% in just the last two years. It’s why Porter Stansberry, author of the End of America documentary that broke the internet, recently called me: "THE most knowledgeable gold investor in the world.” Today, it’s like 1975 all over again – and my four top miners are a strong buy for the rest of this pullback. Don’t waste it. Go here for details on my top four picks Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
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Freeport McMoRan Post-Earnings: Why Good Enough May Finally Be Good EnoughBy Chris Markoch. Posted: 7/24/2026. 
Key Points
- Freeport-McMoRan's second-quarter 2026 earnings showed sharply higher copper and gold prices offsetting lower sales volumes caused by Grasberg's phased restart.
- The Grasberg Block Cave mine ramp-up is progressing toward full production capacity by the end of 2027, reducing long-term operational risk for the company.
- Despite a post-earnings pullback from 52-week highs, FCX shares remain in a broader uptrend supported by rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages and higher analyst price targets.
- Special Report: ALERT: Drop these 5 stocks before the market opens tomorrow!
On July 23, Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) delivered an earnings report shaped by two forces that will define how investors interpret the quarter. Copper and gold prices remained at historically elevated levels, lifting realizations across the board. The report also showed that the company continues to move toward full production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The mine was closed in 2025 following a mining accident that halted a significant portion of the company’s production.
However, FCX shares fell after the report. This could be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation. The stock climbed approximately 15% from July 17 through the market's close on July 22. That suggests a lot of good news was already priced into the report. By the numbers, the results were good, but perhaps not strong enough to justify FCX trading at a 52-week high in the short term. In the long term, however, there are two key factors to consider when analyzing Freeport-McMoRan's earnings. Freeport Earnings Get a Boost From Higher Copper and Gold PricesThe headline numbers for the second quarter of 2026 show why investors were pushing FCX higher ahead of earnings. Freeport-McMoRan posted second-quarter net income of $984 million, or 68 cents per share, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 74 cents after backing out one-time charges tied to the Grasberg incident. Revenue totaled $7 billion, and the company generated $2 billion in operating cash flow for the quarter. The real story was pricing:
The company realized an average of $6.17 per pound for copper in the quarter, up roughly 36% from $4.54 a year ago. Gold realizations jumped to $4,520 per ounce from $3,291, a year-over-year (YOY) gain of roughly 37%. Molybdenum, often an afterthought in Freeport's story, also strengthened meaningfully, with realizations of $28.75 per pound versus $21.10 last year. Copper sales volumes were down significantly year over year—710 million pounds versus 1.0 billion—a direct consequence of Grasberg's phased restart. In other words, FCX is earning more money while selling less copper. That dynamic won't repeat once Grasberg volumes normalize, which is worth keeping in mind when projecting future growth rates. Grasberg Mine Ramp-Up Strengthens Freeport's Long-Term OutlookThe other half of the bull case is de-risking, not just pricing. Freeport confirmed that its Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up met expectations in the second quarter, with mining rates climbing from 34,000 tons per day in April to 69,000 tons per day in June. Management now expects PTFI's overall production capacity to reach roughly 65% in the second half of 2026, 80% by mid-2027 and near full capacity by the end of 2027. That timeline also explains why unit net cash costs in Indonesia remain negative. PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) reported unit net cash credits of 81 cents per pound of copper in the quarter, meaning by-product gold credits more than offset production costs. As volumes recover, that credit dynamic should provide a continued tailwind to consolidated margins, even if copper prices cool from current levels. Freeport Maintains Strong Balance Sheet While Returning CapitalFreeport also used the quarter to reinforce its capital discipline story. The company returned $600 million to shareholders in the first half of 2026, including $200 million in share repurchases, and separately increased its ownership stake in the Cerro Verde mine to 55.66% for roughly $107 million. Net debt stood at just $2.1 billion, excluding downstream processing debt, well below the company's $3 billion to $4 billion target ceiling. That balance sheet flexibility is part of why analysts have been comfortable raising price targets even as the stock reaches new highs. The company is showing its ability to continue funding both shareholder returns and its growth pipeline—Bagdad, El Abra and Kucing Liar—without straining its investment-grade rating. Is the Post-Earnings Pullback a Buying Opportunity?Turning to the technical picture, FCX spent most of 2025 consolidating in the low-$40s before staging a sustained breakout beginning in December and eventually pushing to a 52-week high near $72 in June. The pullback since then, including the post-earnings drop to around $63, has brought shares back toward both the 50-day moving average, at about $64, and the lower end of the recent trading range without breaking the broader uptrend. Notably, the 200-day moving average has been rising steadily since bottoming near $40 late last year. It now sits at about $56, a sign that the medium-term trend remains constructive even after the post-earnings dip. Volume on the down day was elevated but not dramatically outsized relative to recent sessions, which is consistent with profit-taking after a steep run-up rather than a fundamental reassessment of the story. 
Is Freeport-McMoRan Stock Still a Buy After Earnings?One challenge in valuing FCX is that the company's current strong growth is an outlier for two reasons. First, spot prices for copper and gold are at historically elevated levels. Second, the company is just now reporting production from its Grasberg mine, which had been closed. That skews the year-over-year comparisons. Both variables are likely to support strong earnings and free cash flow growth, two of the best predictors of stock price appreciation. But many traditional discounted cash flow models suggest more modest growth. That said, the structural case for copper demand remains in place, and prices are starting to reflect that demand. The same is true of gold. It will take another earnings report or two to determine whether that demand is already priced into FCX. For now, the stock is trading in a defined range. However, rising 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages show that investors have been willing to let the stock grind higher. Leading into the report, analysts raised their price targets for FCX, with the highest targets reaching $80. With the Grasberg project moving toward full production by the end of 2027, the current stock price may create an attractive entry point. . |
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