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What "Twenty-Six Straight Years" Actually Counts 🔎 |
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🔢 TONIGHT'S NUMBERS |
26
Consecutive years of dividend increases, per the company's own release. |
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20%
The average yearly rate of increase across that whole stretch. |
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C$0.625
The quarterly payment declared Thursday — unchanged from last quarter. |
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Those three numbers came out of the same press release, and at first glance the third one argues with the first two. Twenty-six years of increases, and the dividend this quarter is exactly what it was last quarter. |
Both things are true, and the reason is worth two minutes. |
A streak like this counts years, not quarters. Canadian Natural raises its dividend once a year, and this year it did that in March. Every quarterly declaration after the raise simply pays the new, higher amount. So Thursday's release holding at C$0.625 is not the streak pausing. It is the streak working exactly as designed — the increase already happened, five months ago. |
This matters for one practical reason. If you own a dividend payer and you see the word "declared" with no increase attached, that tells you almost nothing on its own. The useful question is when that company does its annual raise. A payer that lifts in March and holds for three quarters looks identical, on any single quarterly announcement, to a payer that has quietly stopped growing. The calendar separates them. |
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🧾 THE FILINGS |
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Canadian Natural press release — quarterly dividend declared |
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The increase that set the current level, per that same release |
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Tutor Perini 8-K — quarterly raised, for contrast |
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One more piece of plain reading. That 20% figure is a compound annual growth rate, which is the average yearly rate of increase smoothed across the full twenty-six years. It is a real number and it is also a long-run average — it does not mean the payment rose 20% this year, or that it will next year. Averages of that length always contain some very large years and some very small ones. |
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📅 NEXT WEEK'S INCOME CALENDAR |
August 19 — Tutor Perini record date. Own the shares by the close that day to receive the September 3 payment. |
August 21 — Karat Packaging record date, for the payment due on or about August 28. |
August 25 — CRA International record date, for the September 14 payment. |
September 11 — Canadian Natural record date, for the October 2 payment. |
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The fine print: a held dividend and a stalled dividend look the same on one announcement and completely different across four. Before you read anything into a quarter with no increase, find out which month that company does its raise. In this case it is March, it is in the release, and 2026 is the twenty-sixth year running. Worth a look, not a worry. |
When you see a dividend held rather than raised, do you check the calendar first or the coverage first? Drop me a note. |
P.S. The Musk project that has not come up on an earnings call yet — a plain-English walkthrough. (Ad) |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
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