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Elon Musk says AI could send the cost of goods and services plummeting. |
Most investors see danger. |
Alex Green sees the next great buying opportunity. |
The veteran investor—who famously recommended Apple at $1 and NVIDIA at $1.10 (split-adjusted)—believes this shift could create a new generation of winners... |
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🧾 What a 3.8% raise really buys |
The 2027 Social Security estimate is out. The number matters less than what it covers. |
🌙 TONIGHT'S NUMBERS |
3.8% — the Senior Citizens League's latest 2027 Social Security cost-of-living estimate, a full point above this year's 2.8%. |
$73.62 — the estimated monthly increase for the average benefit if that holds, lifting it to about $2,011. |
One research group lays out how it thinks patient investors might position for the AI build-out. See the outline. (From Brownstone Research) |
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Every autumn, tens of millions of retirees wait on a single number. It is the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, that sets how much Social Security checks rise the following year. This week the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group that tracks the figure closely, raised its 2027 estimate to 3.8%. That would be a full percentage point above this year's 2.8% raise. Here's what to know before you pencil it in: the number is an estimate, not the final word. For a household living mostly on that check, the gap between a good raise and a thin one is not abstract. It shows up in the grocery budget. |
The official figure will not be set until mid-October, once the government has inflation readings for July, August, and September. If 3.8% holds, the average monthly benefit would climb about $73.62, from roughly $1,938 to $2,011. That sounds better than last year. Whether it feels better depends on what the money has to cover. Warren Buffett has long described inflation as a kind of tax, one that quietly trims what a dollar buys, and a COLA is really an attempt to hand some of that back. For most retirees, it is the main defense their income has against prices, since few have a paycheck that adjusts on its own. |
History shows how much these adjustments can swing. The 2023 COLA came in at 8.7%, the largest since 1981, after prices spiked across the economy. By 2025 the raise had settled back to 2.5% as inflation cooled. A 3.8% estimate for 2027 sits in between, and it carries a familiar catch. Rising Medicare Part B premiums are usually deducted straight from the Social Security check, so the headline raise and the deposited raise are rarely the same. Worth keeping an eye on as the fall inflation numbers come in. |
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A veteran analyst sorts the AI winners from the losers |
A long-time market analyst, known for an early call on Nvidia, argues the AI boom is about to separate durable businesses from the hype. He names the companies he believes land on each side. It is a research firm's free presentation. Take the specific picks with the usual grain of salt, but the framework for telling real earnings from a good story is useful on its own. |
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Now to the numbers that actually pay you. |
💵 INCOME WATCH |
Declared. Broadridge (BR) declared a $1.09 quarterly dividend on Aug. 3 and raised its annual payout 12%, to $4.36 a share. It has increased the dividend every year since going public in 2007. |
Ex-dates ahead. A quiet week for the big income names. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) goes ex-dividend Aug. 25, Coca-Cola (KO) on Sep. 15, and the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) on Sep. 23. None fall in the next five trading days. |
Yield check. The 10-year Treasury has held near 4.6% this week. SCHD, a widely held dividend ETF, yields about 3.1%. |
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One thing to circle for tomorrow. |
📅 TOMORROW'S CALENDAR |
8:30 a.m. ET — July jobs report. The payroll headline will lead, but the wage figure, forecast at 3.5%, feeds the inflation gauges that set next year's Social Security raise. Watch it alongside the 4.2% jobless rate. |
Through the session — second-quarter earnings wind down. A lighter run of results, with a few income-paying names still to report. |
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The alerts desk sends a brief note when a number that matters actually lands, like tomorrow's jobs report. Free, two to three texts a week, opt out anytime. Sign up here. |
Does a 3.8% raise keep pace with what you actually spend in retirement? I read every note, so tell me. |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
P.S. A quick free briefing from our team on what OpenAI's next moves could mean for everyday investors. Read it here. |
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