Watch where the sneaky insider money is going right now

September 08, 2026 Unsubscribe   A note from our friends at Media Pub(ad) There might be no clear end in sight to the Iran war... But this escalation is likely distracting you from a stunning pattern quietly heating up in the predictions market... Corporate and Political insiders, folks with firsthand info on potential announcements, deals, policy changes coming up and more... Have been making sneaky yet massive bets on platforms like Polymarket... And quietly front-running the market in the process. That's why you'd have noticed news about this pattern flying around... Out of the blue on May 19th this year... I tracked a large bearish bet on Bitcoin from an account with over $10 million in volume... Days later... News came out that the SEC was delaying plans to further crypto innovations, obvious bad news for Bitcoin. Acting on the bearish bet before the news came out with a quick trade locked in 78% in 9 days. It doesn't end there... These massive insider bets also tipped off a 39% winner on META overnight. And even 60% on TSM in 6 days. There were smaller wins and those that didn't work and I won't make reckless guarantees about the stock market... But in the next few minutes... I'll show you the special secret I use to track these insider bets... Better yet... You'll get FREE access to use this secret for yourself too... with no catch. All you have to do is tap this link to get instant FREE access and start tracking these insider bets yourself. To Better Trading, Alex Reid. The trades expressed are based on signals from Oracle in real time. While we have been using this tool with great success in our own trading including an 85.57% win rate, a 28% average return of winners and losers over a 4-day average hold time, and a profit factor of 5.94 on real money trades between 5/7/26 and 7/17/26, there's bound to be winners and losers along the way. Since Oracle is a tool for traders and not a trading service, profits and performance will vary among users. Trade at your own risk. See our Terms on the homepage for more information.       Bonus Article Beijing Put $54 Billion Into Its Banks. The Stocks Fell. Hey there, bargain hunter. When a government writes a $54 billion check for its own banks and the stocks go down, that is worth a long look before you reach for your wallet. Scoreboard On Sunday, Beijing announced a 360 billion yuan (about $54 billion) package spread across eight state-owned financial institutions. Agricultural Bank of China fell about 2.5% in Hong Kong on Monday. ICBC dropped about 2.3%. China Taiping slid nearly 4%. PICC and China Life were each off more than 2%. The Hang Seng Index itself slipped less than 1%, meaning financials lagged the broader market even on a day Beijing was theoretically doing them a favor. What Actually Happened The Ministry of Finance is leading the injection. Agricultural Bank is pursuing a private placement of A-shares worth up to 160 billion yuan, with the ministry, China National Tobacco, and related subsidiaries as investors. ICBC is doing the same for up to 100 billion yuan. Export-Import Bank gets 30 billion yuan directly. The remaining 70 billion yuan flows to insurers: China Life gets 35 billion, PICC up to 15 billion, China Taiping 7 billion, China Re 3 billion, and Sinosure 10 billion. The insurer piece is genuinely new. This is the first time Beijing has used special bonds to support state insurers, a signal that solvency stress has become enough of a policy issue to merit bank-style recapitalization tools. That is not a comfort. That is a warning sign dressed up as a lifeline. The package was also smaller than what markets had expected for insurers. Citi analysts noted the downsized figure “underscores the healthier capital positions of Chinese insurers,” framing it as lower urgency. Markets read it as underwhelming relative to the scale of the structural problems. The Business, in Plain English ICBC and Agricultural Bank are two of the world's largest lenders by assets. They make money the old-fashioned way: borrow cheap, lend at a spread. That spread, the net interest margin, is the engine. For ICBC, that engine is running at 1.29%, down from above 2% years ago, after Beijing spent years pushing banks to cut loan rates to support a slowing economy. ICBC's first-half 2026 net income rose 3.3% to 173.68 billion yuan, a green number on the surface, but the margin held flat into late June largely because liability costs improved as loan yields came under pressure. One good half does not fix a structurally squeezed business model. Is It Cheap? State Chinese banks trade at fractions of book value in Hong Kong, which looks cheap in a spreadsheet. The problem is book value itself. When a bank's core profitability metric sits at 1.29% and the structural pressure to keep lending cheap shows no sign of easing, the question is not whether the stock is cheap relative to book. It is whether book is worth what it says it is. Fresh capital helps capital ratios. It does not fix margins. The A-share placements that fund this injection are also dilutive to existing Hong Kong H-share holders, who absorb the earnings dilution without getting to participate in the new shares at placement prices. Bull / Base / Bear Bull: Beijing keeps its implicit guarantee intact, dividends hold, and NIMs stabilize as rate cuts slow. Stocks re-rate toward book value as growth concerns ease and FXI benefits from any broad China re-rating trade. Base: Capital ratios improve but profitability stays compressed. Stocks trade sideways in a low-return range. FXI grinds along with the broader H-share market, heavy in financials and energy, light on growth. Bear: NIM compression continues as Beijing leans harder on banks for cheap credit. Insurer solvency stress widens. A-share dilutions keep coming. The apparent cheapness never converts to returns because earnings per share erodes faster than the discount narrows. Action Plan This is a value trap question, not a value question. The two look identical on a P/B screen and nothing alike in outcome. If you want China financial exposure, FXI gives you the liquid wrapper without picking individual names, but know that the ETF carries heavy bank and energy weight with limited tech offset. If you must own individual names, wait for the A-share placement prices on ICBC and Agricultural Bank to be formally set: that is your real reference point for dilution math. Do not front-run the injection announcement. That trade already happened, in reverse. Cheap Investor Checklist NIM trajectory: is ICBC's 1.29% floor holding, or does the next rate cycle push it lower? A-share placement pricing: at what discount to market does the dilution land? Insurer solvency ratios: are China Life and PICC improving post-injection, or was 70 billion yuan insufficient? Dividend sustainability: do payout ratios hold if earnings per share erodes further? Policy direction: does Beijing ease the cheap-lending pressure on banks, or double down? FXI flows: is foreign capital returning to the H-share market or still rotating out? NPL ratios: watch for any deterioration in non-performing loan disclosures at the next quarterly update. Bottom Line If Beijing keeps its guarantee credible and NIMs stop falling, these stocks are cheap. If the structural squeeze on lending margins continues and insurer stress widens, 360 billion yuan is a band-aid on a slow bleed and the discount to book is a feature, not a mispricing. Watch the NIM trend at ICBC's next quarterly filing and the formal placement prices on the A-share deals. Those two data points will tell you whether this is a buy on weakness or a trap with a state seal on it. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. The Cheap Investor is a publication of Investing Media Solutions, LLC. To view our full policies: Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 The Cheap Investor 203 N La Salle Suite 2100 Chicago , Illinois 60601, United States Powered by beehiiv