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Gates. Google. The Pentagon. |
Bill Gates invested $100 million. Google signed a 15-year agreement. The Pentagon made it a top energy priority. |
They're all backing the same breakthrough: a virtually limitless energy source that could power AI for decades. |
Now, one company appears to be at the center of it all—and Washington could give it a major advantage on August 18. |
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๐ฐ️ The listing was not the end |
A payment landing in an account looks like the end of something. It is where a decision gets made. |
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A dividend arriving in an account looks like the end of a transaction. It is closer to the start of one. On Thursday of the coming week Emerson Electric pays 55.5 cents a share, and in the moment it lands, something decides where it goes next. For most holders that something is a setting chosen years ago and not looked at since. |
The arithmetic behind the setting has changed a good deal more than the setting has. Reinvest, and the cash buys more of a company yielding 1.48% on Thursday's close. Leave it as cash, and it sits against a curve where the ten-year finished Thursday at 4.772%. That is a wide gap. It has been wide most of this year, and it is not by itself an argument for either choice. |
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๐ก WHAT THIS MEANS |
The reason it settles nothing is that the two figures are not measuring the same object. A 4.772% coupon is the entire return on that dollar, and it does not grow. Emerson's 1.48% is this year's cash on a payment the feed shows moving up four times since 2023, attached to a share price that can go either way. One is a rate. The other is a rate plus a question. Which you want more of depends on what the money is for, and that is not a question a payment date should be answering on your behalf. |
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The overnight, caught up before the bell |
Asia, futures, and the headlines that broke while you slept. One short email. |
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(From Good Morning Alerts) |
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What a short week does to the question |
There is a timing wrinkle worth naming. Monday is Labor Day, so the coming week runs four sessions from Tuesday. A payment that arrives Thursday in an ordinary week still arrives Thursday; what changes is the runway either side of it. Fewer sessions in which to do anything with the cash, and a consumer price report at 8:30 on Friday that will take up whatever attention is left over. If the reinvestment setting is switched on, none of that reaches you, because the setting acts without asking. That is the argument for looking at it now rather than in the middle of the week. |
None of which is a reason to change anything. A 4.772% ten-year and a 1.48% dividend yield have sat side by side all year, and holders who did nothing about it collected a coupon on one side and a raise on the other. The thing worth avoiding is not knowing which of the two your account picked for you. |
A word on the company behind that 1.48%. |
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๐งพ THE STEADY · EMR |
Emerson Electric pays 55.5 cents a share on Thursday, September 10, declared August 4 against an August 14 ex-date. The raise cadence in the feed runs in November: 52 cents through the middle of 2023, 52.5 from November 2023, 52.75 from November 2024, 55.5 from November 2025. Forward rate $2.22, a 1.48% yield on Thursday's $150.21 close, with a payout ratio of 0.25 and a 52-week range of $122.64 to $166.35. A low yield sitting on a low payout ratio is the shape of a company keeping most of its cash for its own use. That is the trade a holder is making here, and it is worth making on purpose. |
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The calendar for the coming week is thin until Thursday. |
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๐
THE WEEK'S CALENDAR |
Mon, Sep 7. Labor Day. U.S. markets closed, and the Federal Reserve's daily statistical releases move to Tuesday. |
Tue, Sep 8. The first of four sessions. Nothing on the watchlist goes ex-dividend all week. |
Thu, Sep 10, 8:30 ET. August producer prices. Emerson's 55.5 cents is payable the same day. |
Fri, Sep 11, 8:30 ET. August consumer prices, the last inflation reading before the Fed meets. |
The week after. The FOMC meets September 15 and 16, with the decision Wednesday afternoon. |
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Is your reinvestment switch something you chose, or something you inherited from an old account setup? Answer in a reply if you like. |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
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