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Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Google, and Microsoft Are All Chasing the Same Technology |
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They didn't coordinate. They reached the same conclusion independently... |
That the future of AI depends on this technology... which could see a surge of attention this August as a key government deadline approaches... |
And one small stock sits at the center of it. |
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🏛️ What a coupon locks, what a dividend grows |
The Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes at 1:00 p.m. Eastern today. A short essay on the other side of the same question. |
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🌙 TONIGHT’S NUMBERS |
4.77% — the 10-year Treasury at Friday’s close. Locked in for a buyer at the last auction, and unchanged over the long weekend. |
+27% — Duke Energy’s per-share dividend today versus ten years ago. $0.855 a quarter in 2016; $1.085 a quarter now. |
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The Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes today at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. A buyer at that auction locks in whatever the auction clears at, and receives that same coupon every six months until September 2029. The number does not move. That is the whole point of a coupon: it is a promise that the interest payment will not change. On the 10-year end of the curve, the yield closed Friday near 4.77%, which is what a buyer today would earn on a note that pays through the next presidential term and out the other side. |
A share of Duke Energy paid $0.855 per quarter in 2016 and pays $1.085 per quarter now — the same 40 shares that paid $137 a year in dividends ten years ago pay $174 a year today, a 27% increase in dollar income from a single position held quietly. The share count did not change; the check did. A 10-year Treasury issued in 2016 at a yield near 2.1% is still paying about $210 a year on a $10,000 face amount — as it was designed to. One number was locked, and stayed. The other was not, and did not. |
The trade-off is honest. The bond pays more on the dollar today; the dividend grower pays less today, but its per-share payout has drifted up in each of the last ten years for this particular name and for many others cut to a similar cloth. A holder of either instrument is buying the same thing — a stream of payments — with different arithmetic on where the stream ends up over ten years. Neither is right in every account; both are right in some accounts. What is worth doing on an auction day is knowing which side of the trade-off a given position was bought to satisfy, and whether that answer still fits the sleeve it sits in. |
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💵 INCOME WATCH |
Declared: A quiet stretch on the declarations front over the long weekend — nothing new on the watchlist since Prologis held at $1.07 on September 2 and VICI Properties raised to 46 cents on September 3. Boards resume the normal cadence this week. |
Ex-dates ahead: The watchlist ex-date column is empty across the shortened week (September 8 through 14). The next cluster runs September 15 through 17 — Coca-Cola at 53 cents and Altria at $1.11 on the 15th (Altria’s the raise from $1.06 declared August 27), Prologis at $1.07 on the 16th, VICI Properties at 46 cents on the 17th. |
Yield check: 10-year Treasury near 4.77% at Friday’s close (source: FRED). Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF filed forward rate $1.047, near 3.007% forward yield on Friday’s $35.08 close — roughly 177 basis points of coupon-over-dividend on the ETF benchmark. A wider gap than most of the last decade, and worth reading rather than reacting to. |
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One watchlist name has a payout ladder that matches this essay’s point closely enough to be worth its own paragraph tonight. |
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🧾 THE STEADY · DUK |
Duke Energy Corporation — a regulated electric utility whose quarterly dividend feed shows uninterrupted payments across the ten years the record covers, and ten consecutive annual raises inside that window. Each July the board lifts the quarterly amount by roughly two cents. The ladder in the feed reads $0.855 (2016), $0.89, $0.9275, $0.945, $0.965, $0.985, $1.005, $1.025, $1.045, $1.065, $1.085 (current). Forward rate $4.34 a share, which has been running near a 3.6% forward yield — against the 10-year’s 4.77%, about 117 basis points below. Payout ratio 0.53. The 52-week range runs $113.895 to $134.49. The ex-date this month was August 14 for the September 16 payment. It is a portrait of a utility whose per-share income line drifts up in a straight line, at a pace slower than the coupon side is currently paying — and a portrait, not a suggestion. |
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And here is what tomorrow’s reopen already holds, on the paper of it. |
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📅 TOMORROW’S CALENDAR |
Wed, JOLTS job openings, 10:00 a.m. Eastern — the July print. A monthly read on employer demand for workers; a downshift below 7 million openings would carry more signal than an upshift toward 7.5 million. |
Wed, 10-year Treasury auction, 1:00 p.m. Eastern — $42 billion reopening. Watch the indirect column for foreign demand at the yield. |
Thu, Producer Price Index, 8:30 a.m. Eastern — the August print. Wholesale prices usually set the tone for Friday’s CPI. |
Thu, watchlist dividend payments — CVX $1.78, XOM $1.03, EMR 55.5 cents, all declared July or early August. |
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When you think of a position as an income position, do you think of it in dollars per year or in yield-on-cost? Just reply, I read every one. |
— Randy Cole, Editor |
P.S. Markets do not sleep. Good Morning Alerts catches you up on the overnight before the bell — the moves, the day’s schedule, and the levels worth watching. Free, and short. (From Good Morning Alerts) |
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