Adam O'Dell Chief Investment Strategist, Money & Markets
Today’s editorial pick for you
Nike Earnings Better Than Feared: Is NKE Stock Ready to Rally?
Posted On Jul 01, 2026 by Chris Markoch
Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) delivered fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results that topped Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, yet shares fell roughly 7% following the June 30 release, but had cut its loss to just around 1% after the subsequent conference call.
Table of Contents
The recovery from steeper after-hours losses suggests investors are looking past the headline beat and focusing on something more specific: weak forward guidance paired with early signs that new financial discipline is starting to take hold. That means this Nike earnings report is, at its core, a margin story.
For the quarter ended May 31, Nike posted revenue of $11.0 billion, down 1% on a reported basis and down 4% on a currency-neutral basis. Diluted earnings per share came in at $0.72, a dramatic jump from $0.14 in the prior-year period. Net income surged 407% to $1.07 billion.
On the surface, that’s a blowout. But $0.52 of that $0.72 in EPS came from an expected recovery of tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), following a February Supreme Court ruling that the tariffs were unauthorized. Strip that one-time benefit out, and underlying profitability looks far less dramatic, which is exactly why guidance, not the beat itself, is driving the stock’s reaction.
For full fiscal 2026, revenue was $46.4 billion, essentially flat year over year, while diluted EPS fell 3% to $2.10.
On July 1, 2026, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla could face a nightmare scenario. All depend on a single material to build AI chips, smartphones, and data centers. Trump is expected to weaponize America's monopoly over it. The New Yorker warned: "Without it, the global economy might well unravel." Morgan Stanley estimates a $10 trillion boom.
The tariff recovery is the most visible story in this report, but it isn’t the one that matters most for where the stock goes next. Nike said the expected IEEPA tariff refund added approximately $986 million to gross profit in the quarter, lifting gross margin by about 900 basis points. Reported gross margin came in at 49.2%, up 890 basis points year over year. That number looks extraordinary until you realize most of the improvement is a one-time accounting benefit rather than pricing power or cost discipline.
North America segment EBIT jumped 91% to $2.0 billion, but $965 million of that gain was tied directly to the tariff recovery. Total NIKE Brand EBIT for the quarter rose 108% to $1.86 billion, again heavily flattered by the same item. Management’s guidance for the coming year came in below expectations, and that’s the more important signal here. Investors aren’t punishing Nike for a messy quarter; they’re recalibrating around a softer near-term outlook.
Inventory Discipline Hints at a Margin Story Taking Shape
The more interesting development sits in the balance sheet. Inventories were $7.5 billion, essentially flat year over year, with the company noting that an increase in units was offset by shifts in product mix. That’s a subtle but meaningful detail. Under CFO Matthew Friend, Nike appears to be managing inventory more tightly than in recent years, favoring cleaner sell-through over chasing top-line volume.
Tighter inventory control typically shows up in financial statements well before it shows up in margins, since it takes time for reduced discounting and markdown activity to flow through gross margin. The fourth quarter’s tariff-driven margin spike may be obscuring this slower, more durable trend, but it’s the one worth watching into fiscal 2027.
Wholesale revenue grew 4% to $6.6 billion, helped by North America’s strength that offset declines in Greater China. That’s a sign that retail partners remain willing to take on inventory even as Nike manages supply more carefully. NIKE Direct fell 7% to $4.1 billion, with digital sales down 12%, reflecting the brand’s deliberate pullback from heavy promotional selling to protect full-price realization. Converse remains a clear problem area, with revenue down 32% to $244 million.
Technical Picture Shows a Stock Stuck in a Downtrend
NKE shares closed regular trading at $41.05, down 1.04% on the day, before sliding further after the release. The stock trades below its 50-day simple moving average of $43.40 and near the lower Bollinger Band of $40.33, with the upper band at $46.47. The 14-day RSI is 37.90, below its 45.14 moving average, signaling persistent but not extreme downside momentum. The pattern reflects a stock still searching for a bottom after a months-long downtrend.
Why the Bears Could Be Right
Skeptics have a fair case. Guidance for the year ahead was weak, Greater China revenue fell 12% in the quarter, and the core earnings beat leans almost entirely on a non-recurring tariff recovery.
Inventory discipline is a promising early signal, but it hasn’t yet translated into underlying margin expansion. If the new CFO’s tighter cost and inventory controls take longer than expected to translate into profitability, the stock’s downtrend could persist well into fiscal 2027.
A Speculative Opportunity Hiding in Plain Sight
Still, there’s a case for patient, risk-tolerant investors to take notice. Nike’s valuation has compressed substantially alongside the stock price, wholesale demand is stabilizing, and China weakness is now a known, well-priced risk rather than a surprise. The inventory discipline showing up this quarter is the kind of detail that often precedes a genuine margin recovery, even if guidance suggests that recovery won’t be immediate.
This isn’t a screaming buy. It’s closer to a “what more does it have to do?” situation, where soft guidance is already reflected in the price and any sign of consistent execution on costs and inventory could spark a re-rating. For investors willing to make a speculative bet that Nike’s new financial discipline is real and durable, the current pullback may be more of an opportunity than a warning sign.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar