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"The cost of everything will drop to NOTHING." |
That's what Musk told a room full of stunned executives. Most people laughed. One man didn't. A 41-year stock market legend - the SAME man who bought Apple at $1... called NVIDIA at $1.10... both split adjusted says Musk is right. And he's identified a handful of companies that could EXPLODE as this "deflation bomb" detonates across the economy. |
For the full story, click here. |
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🏛 BONUS: Reading the 10-Year the Night Before the Fed ⏳Tonight's numbers, and what they mean for the income side of your portfolio going into tomorrow's Fed decision.
Tonight's Numbers
4.62% — the 10-year Treasury settled today, down from this month's high near 4.70%, but still the base rate every bond ladder and CD renewal gets measured against.
3.50%-3.75% — the fed-funds range Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to hold steady on tomorrow, a hold that matters more than usual after weeks of restless yields.
3.3% — the current yield on the Schwab U.S. Dividend ETF (SCHD), a rough benchmark for what a basket of dividend blue chips pays right now.
The 10-year Treasury eased to 4.62% today after touching a year-to-date high near 4.70% last week. Tomorrow afternoon's Fed decision is the reason for the retreat. Markets widely expect Chair Kevin Warsh to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, the same range it has sat in since spring. The case for holding is easy to make on paper: the labor market has cooled from its earlier pace, and headline inflation has come down more than most forecasters expected heading into summer. A hold, even a widely expected one, tends to calm a yield curve that has been jumpy for weeks. For an income portfolio, the level matters more than the decision itself. A bond ladder built when the 10-year sat near 4.0% earlier this year looks different from one built at 4.62% today, and the temptation after any Fed meeting is to rebuild the whole thing around whatever gets said in the afternoon press conference. Slower is usually better here. A single afternoon of commentary rarely changes the math on a ladder that already spans several years of staggered maturities, and rungs that mature over the coming months will simply roll into whatever the market is offering when they come due, Fed decision or not. December 2018 is worth remembering when a Fed decision feels like it should change everything overnight. The Fed signaled more hikes were coming that month, the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% into Christmas, and by the middle of 2019 the Fed had reversed course entirely, cutting rates three separate times before the year was out. Investors who repositioned around the gloomy December mood, rather than waiting on the underlying data, spent much of the following six months catching up to a market and a bond curve that had already turned. Tomorrow's decision is unlikely to be nearly that dramatic, but the lesson about waiting for confirmation still holds.
Income Watch Declared: Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend 14% to $0.32 a share on Friday, July 24. Three days later, H2O America lifted its payout to an annualized $1.76 from $1.68. Ex-dates ahead: AGNC Investment and Alliant Energy both go ex-dividend Friday, July 31. Thursday is the last day to buy either name for that payment. Yield check: The 10-year closed at 4.62% today. The Schwab U.S. Dividend ETF (SCHD) yields about 3.3% right now, a useful gauge for comparing against whatever your cash is earning. |
Tomorrow's CalendarFOMC decision, 2:00 PM ET Wednesday — Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 will likely matter more to yields than the hold itself, especially any language about the pace of cuts later this year.
Weekly jobless claims, 8:30 AM ET Thursday — a below-consensus print keeps the patient-Fed case intact, while a surprise jump would revive the argument for faster easing.
Microsoft earnings, after the close Thursday — consensus calls for revenue near $87.7 billion, and the cloud growth commentary matters more to a diversified holder than the headline beat or miss.
Which of tonight's three numbers matters most to how you're positioned for tomorrow? Reply and tell me, I read every note. — Randy Cole, Editor
One Fed decision. One text alert. Get tomorrow's Fed decision explained before the opening bell, free by text Wednesday's FOMC decision lands at 2:00 PM ET. Our SMS desk sends a brief note when something genuinely matters, like a hold that isn't quite a hold, or language that shifts the September odds, so you're not catching up after the fact. Free, two to three texts a week, opt out anytime. Get the SMS alerts (free) → |
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