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Why ASML’s AI Monopoly Is Still Getting StrongerAuthor: Thomas Hughes. Published: 7/15/2026. 
Key Points
- ASML's monopoly on EUV lithography machines and its growing Installed Base give it a durable competitive moat against emerging rivals like Canon.
- ASML's Q2 results beat expectations with 21% revenue growth, expanding gross margins, and guidance suggesting continued strong demand into 2027.
- Analysts raised price targets after the report, though geopolitical risks tied to China, Taiwan, and customer concentration remain significant threats.
- Special Report: This tiny piece of glass could be bigger than GPUs
ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) holds a monopoly on foundational AI technology, making it one of the most structurally sound tech investments available. Its Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are the only ones capable of printing AI-capable circuitry, and demand for them remains high. Evidence of that strength appeared in the company's Q2 results and guidance update, released July 15. The report highlighted not only demand but also a business model built for the long term. While new EUV machines are the story today, those sales will eventually cool. The bigger long-term opportunity lies in the persistent upgrade cycle built into the technology, which includes software and hardware upgrades, along with the services needed to implement them.
ASML’s machine bodies are bolted to the floors of semiconductor foundries around the world. As foundry capacity expands rapidly, each installed machine contributes to Installed Base volume. As it stands, the Installed Base accounted for 30% of net revenue, growing 11% sequentially and 5% year over year, with a wide moat surrounding the business. There is an up-and-coming competitor technology developed by Canon (OTCMKTS: CAJPY), but it is not expected to reach anything like commercial-scale availability until 2028 and, even then, is not truly a viable competitor. Canon’s Nanoimprint technology, which stamps circuits onto silicon, can produce similarly fine circuitry but also carries a much higher error rate, making it unsuitable for advanced computing. ASML Signals Momentum Shift in Lithography MarketsASML had a robust quarter, with revenue growing 21% in Q2. Topline results outpaced consensus by approximately 450 basis points (bps), driven by strength in new equipment and upgrades. The company sold 86 new machines, up 28%, while used equipment sales declined. Gross margin, another critical factor, expanded by 1,000 bps due to leverage, including the benefit of Installed Base management. Margin is another important factor for this investment, as the company has maintained a healthy gross margin in the mid-50% range and continues to improve through sales strength and Installed Base growth. The only bad news is that net margin contracted, leaving earnings up just 5.8%, but there is a silver lining. The company is investing in technology and capacity to meet new demand, signaling the durability of the cycle. Guidance is yet another sign of this company’s strength, position, and momentum within the industry. The company issued a Q3 revenue target more than 1,000 bps above expectations, lifted its full-year outlook, and signaled a change in its long-term outlook. The caveat is that the change will not be revealed until next year at the subsequent investor day event. Until then, ASML forecasts Q3 revenue growth of more than 23% sequentially and 31% year over year (YOY), which may underestimate demand for its products. Analysts Pound the Table for Top-Pick ASMLAnalysts responded vigorously to ASML’s release, issuing numerous commentaries that reinforced the bullish narrative. They pointed to strong top- and bottom-line performance, Installed Base growth, Installed Base management strength, and the direct connection to capacity expansion. Activity also included several price target increases, pushing the high end of the range higher. The consensus price target of $1,891 reported by MarketBeat in mid-July offered only modest upside, but the high-end target added nearly 40% to that figure. The likely outcome is that analyst sentiment remains strong through year-end and into 2027, supporting the stock’s rally. Capital returns also factor into this stock’s appeal, including dividends and share buybacks. The dividend is little more than a token, yielding approximately 0.6% as of mid-July, but it is reliable, increases annually, and is complemented by share count reductions. Q2 activity helped drive nearly a 1% trailing 12-month decline, a pace that is likely to continue in coming quarters. Stock price action following the earnings release told a mixed story. ASML jumped more than 3% in premarket trading before giving back the gains, though it held support near $1,775, coincident with the 30-day exponential moving average. This suggests short-term buyers are active and defending support, but they have not yet taken decisive control. A move through the existing high near $2,000 is the key level to watch—clearing it would likely trigger fresh capital inflows. If new highs are set, the next resistance target is in the $2,250 region. 
ASML’s biggest risks are geopolitical. Restrictions, bans, and actions by China against Taiwan pose an existential threat and could disrupt the business. U.S. legislation currently under review could also prevent the company from servicing equipment already placed in China. Customer concentration is focused on Taiwanese manufacturers, including Taiwan Semiconductor (NASDAQ: TSM), as well as Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Samsung (OTCMKTS: SSNLF). Valuation is also a risk, as the stock is priced for perfection and flawless execution.
This content is for educational purposes only. The opinions expressed are from DM Intelligence LLC, doing business as Decentralized Masters, who are not licensed financial advisors or registered investment advisors. The reader acknowledges that DM Intelligence LLC is not responsible for any losses, direct or indirect, resulting from the use of this information, including errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Results are not typical and will vary. Success with digital currencies requires time, effort, and involves substantial risk including total loss of investment. Past performance does not indicate future results. All investments are at your own risk. You may unsubscribe at any time.
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