July 26, 2026 | Read online

The Week Ahead - July 26th

Microsoft and Meta report this week, Warsh makes his move

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Rates have zoomed higher, with the 10-year up to 4.68% now, hitting some of the big Semis and AI names the most on Friday. It looks like this might be short lived though as the U.S. pausing strikes on Iran on Saturday has Nasdaq futures up 1.2% and S&P futures up 0.64% at time of writing.

The breaking news from moments ago though is that Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to backstop $250 Billion in financing. This eye-popping number is to help with a massive SoftBank buildout and further builds on the crazy AI spend numbers we’ve seen circulate this past week, and will likely see with Microsoft and Meta later in the week.

The number 1 thing on my radar is Claude announcing Opus 5, which is marketed as a model almost as good as Fable at half the price. In some ways, they’re trying to quiet down the tokenmaxxing pushback and insist they can ship more efficient models given the rise of open-weight models like Moonshot’s Kimi K3.

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Here’s a look at earnings this week.

Monday: Welltower, AstraZeneca, Nucor, Brown & Brown, Whirlpool, Universal Health, Celestica
Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, KLA Corporation, Boeing, S&P Global, Barclays PLC, American Tower, United Parcel, Sherwin-Williams, Royal Caribbean, Hilton, Ford Motor, Avis Budget, Cheesecake Factory, UPS, Mondelez, NXP Semiconductors, PayPal, Corning, Seagate Technology, JetBlue, Centene
Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, HSBC, Lam Research, P&G, Arm, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Vertiv, Fortinet, General Dynamics, Equinix, ADP, Robinhood, O’Reilly, Carvana, Boston Scientific, Deutsche Bank, L3Harris, Humana, Garmin, Chipotle, Biogen, GE HealthCare, SoFi, Stanley Black & Decker, MGM, Wingstop, Sonos
Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Shell, Anheuser-Busch, Bristol Myers Squibb, KKR, Ferrari, Cigna, Coinbase, Live Nation, Yum! Brands, Hershey, Roblox, Reddit, Rivian, First Solar, Roku, Hyatt, GoDaddy, SiriusXM, Norwegian Cruise Line, Crocs, Mizuho, Altria,
Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, Ares Management, Moderna, AutoNation, Newell Brands, T. Rowe Price, Newell

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

The big news is the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Polymarket has 77% odds of no rate change on Wednesday.

Monday: Durable-goods orders (2.1%), Durable goods minus transportation,
Tuesday: Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced retail inventories, Advanced wholesale inventories, S&P Case-Shiller home price index 20 cities (1.3%), Consumer confidence (92.5)
Wednesday: FOMC interest-rate decision, Fed Chair Warsh press conference
Thursday: Initial jobless claims (203,000), GDP (2.1%), Personal income (0.4%), Personal spending (0.3), PCE index (-0.1%), PCE y/y (3.7), Core PCE index (0.2%), Core PCE y/y (3.3%)
Friday: Employment cost index (0.8%), Chicago Business Barometer PMI (55.0), Consumer sentiment (54.0)

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Earnings Corner 💸

American Express $AXP ( ▼ 4.3% ) revenue of $19.64B, narrowly missed estimates, while EPS of $4.53 beat. Results were driven by strong card member spending, record billed business of $455.8B, and resilient premium customer demand. However, shares fell after the company kept FY26 EPS guidance unchanged despite raising its revenue outlook, opting to reinvest the upside into growth initiatives, including its Platinum Card refresh, which pressured expenses.
Verizon $VZ ( ▲ 5.84% ) missed at $34.3B, while EPS beat at $1.30. Results were driven by improved wireless and fiber customer growth, lower churn, reduced device subsidies, and cost cuts, as simpler plans and more competitive pricing helped the company regain customers despite pressure on traditional postpaid revenue. Mgmt raised its FY26 guidance and announced a $1B+ dark fiber deal with Google to connect AI data centers, with additional multibillion dollar AI infrastructure agreements expected by year end.
Charter Communications $CHTR ( ▼ 2.52% ) revenue missed at $13.53B, while EPS of $10.66 beat. Results were pressured by intensifying competition from fixed wireless and fiber, which drove the loss of 172,000 internet customers, while cord cutting and lower priced video packages weighed on residential revenue. Mobile growth, with 406,000 line additions, and cost controls supported earnings, but accelerating broadband subscriber losses and continued pressure on the core cable business overshadowed the beat. Mgmt expects the Cox acquisition to close in August, with at least $800M in annual synergies.

On The Move 📈 📉

Rates sent AI and Semis lower on Friday:
- Intel $INTC ( ▼ 7.89% ) reversed after-hours gains despite its best quarter in ~15 years
- Memory stocks $MU ( ▼ 6.99% ) , $SNDK ( ▼ 10.79% ) , $WDC ( ▼ 6.9% ) , and $STX ( ▼ 6.75% ) sold off after steep losses from Asian peers $SKHY ( ▼ 8.81% ) and $SSNLF ( ▲ 116.8% ) spilled into U.S. trading.
- Applied Digital $APLD ( ▼ 9.03% ) sold off ahead of Monday’s earnings and is now down 30% on the month despite Wall Street expecting 174% YoY revenue growth.
- Neocloud stocks $CRWV ( ▼ 11.37% ) and $NBIS ( ▼ 15.03% ) tumbled as well.
Waymo is exploring a full split from Uber as it plans to enter the Austin and Atlanta markets independently in January 2028, as their 2023 partnership sours amid dueling lobbying efforts over robotaxi rules. Uber $UBER ( ▼ 4.31% ) shares fell on the news, while Waymo has since raised $16Bn at a $126Bn valuation.
RingCentral $RNG ( ▲ 25.09% ) rocketed after Q2 free cash flow surged 24.8% and the company boosted its dividend 67%. Management also raised FY guidance and AI product sales doubled to 13% of ARR.
MaxLinear $MXL ( ▼ 21.54% ) collapsed despite a Q2 beat and raised FY guidance. Profit-taking on the 300%+ YTD rally drowned out fresh price target hikes from Needham, Stifel, and Roth.
Fuel-cell stocks $BE ( ▼ 14.92% ) , $FCEL ( ▼ 8.76% ) , and $PLUG ( ▼ 4.57% ) tumbled in a broader hydrogen sector selloff with no company-specific catalyst, as increasing rates and profit-taking hit the crowded AI-power trade after massive YTD runs.
Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▼ 14.2% ) fell after an FDA advisory panel rejected emideltide for the 503A Bulks List. The vote erased Thursday’s 13% pop on the BPC-157 approval and cast doubt on the peptide business’s regulatory path.

IPO Roundup 📍

Brooks Automation is considering a US IPO and is in talks with potential advisors. THL acquired the robotics and automation firm for $3B in 2021 in a carveout that left the remaining life sciences business now listed on the Nasdaq as $AZTA ( ▼ 3.29% ) . Brooks’ robots serve semiconductor manufacturing, life sciences, and industrial customers across 14+ countries.
Scribe Therapeutics Inc. $SCTX ( ▲ 44.33% ) surged in its Nasdaq debut Friday after raising $128.7M in an upsized IPO priced at $15 (top of the $13-$15 range). The gene therapy developer focuses on heart diseases including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and drew a concurrent $7.5M placement from Sanofi plus increased backing from existing investor Eli Lilly to an 11% post-offering stake. Leerink Partners, Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim Securities, and Wells Fargo led the offering.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿

DeepSeek suspended its second fundraising round after leaked comments from founder Liang Wenfeng went viral in China. The transcript showed Liang acknowledging DeepSeek’s reliance on Nvidia chips and China’s AI lag versus the US. These admissions undercut Beijing’s self-reliance narrative, and DeepSeek is also preparing an IPO that could file as soon as this year.
Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” fell just 30% in its second weekend, one of the top 3 smallest drops for a film with a $100M+ opening. The $87M domestic second-weekend haul, combined with $128M overseas, pushed the Universal/Syncopy film to $639M globally and on track to reach $1B worldwide.
Moody’s warns “unprecedented” AI spending is eroding hyperscaler credit quality. Direct debt across Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, and CoreWeave has reached ~$460B, while leasing commitments hit $1.2T (with $820B tied to data centers not yet built). The Big 4 balance sheets remain among the strongest in the world, though Oracle (Baa2, negative outlook) and CoreWeave (Ba3, high-yield) face the most pressure.
BlackRock’s $12.3Bn bond sale for a Meta data center project drew soft demand of $20Bn (1.6x the offering), well below this year’s investment-grade average of 4x, as investors grow wary of large AI-related debt sales. The notes were priced at an OAS of 2.875%
Morgan Stanley says SpaceX at $100 would imply zero AI value. Wall Street investors see the stock potentially dropping to $100 next month when the first lockup expires and $116B of shares become eligible for sale. Many are already discounting SpaceX’s AI unit over concerns about high capex, uncertain economics, and the amount of management time it consumes.
Jonathan Bock resigned as co-CEO of Blackstone’s $78Bn flagship private credit fund BCRED on July 20, with Brad Marshall taking over as sole CEO. The exit follows COO Katherine Rubenstein’s departure last month, and comes as BCRED’s NAV fell 1.2% in June.
Paramount is delaying its $111Bn Warner Bros. Discovery merger until June 2027, which could cost Paramount up to $650M per quarter owed to Warner Bros. shareholders starting in October. This adds pressure to a deal already carrying $80Bn in combined debt personally guaranteed by Larry Ellison.
United CEO Scott Kirby approached Delta last year about a merger that would have combined the two most valuable US carriers, though talks didn’t progress past preliminary due diligence. It’s the second megadeal Kirby has pursued, following his American Airlines merger pitch that American rebuffed as “anticompetitive.”
Cerberus Capital Management bought a $1.3B NYC rent-regulated loan portfolio from OceanFirst Financial. The sale is one of the largest since NY’s tenant-friendly legislation in 2019 and comes as Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s rent freeze on ~1M stabilized apartments pushes regional banks to trim their exposure.
Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com to expand its prediction market offerings. The partnership would add Crypto.com’s yes-or-no betting contracts to Robinhood’s platform, deepening its push into prediction markets and turning its existing partnership with Kalshi into direct competition.
Nvidia will invest $1Bn in Naver to fund a South Korean AI data center, and is teaming with SK Group on a broader "AI initiative" worth more than $500Bn. The deals, covering new data centers, memory purchases, and supercomputer sales, were unveiled during South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s Silicon Valley visit.
K-beauty sales in the US reached $2.8Bn in early 2026, up 48% YoY, with Morgan Stanley forecasting full-year sales near $4Bn. Retailer Olive Young’s first US store drew 6,000 customers on opening weekend and now averages 1,600 daily visitors, while Target has quadrupled its K-beauty assortment.

M&A Transactions💭

Safety Insurance Group (NAS: SAFT), a provider of private passenger automobile, commercial automobile, and home owners insurance, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.54B by Mapfre (MAD: MAP). EV/EBITDA was 17.33x and EV/Revenue was 1.22x. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Paloma Resources, provider of oil and gas exploration and production services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.275B by Matador Resources (NYS: MTDR).

My Pension Expert, provider of financial services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 500.0M by Valeas Capital Partners. Ardea Partners advised on the sale.

Enhanced Drilling, manufacturer of specialist drilling technology, was acquired for NOK 2.0B by Expro Group Holdings (NYS: XPRO). Fearnley Securities advised on the sale.

CORMETECH, manufacturer of emissions-control catalysts, was acquired for $460.0M by Johnson Matthey (LON: JMAT). EV/EBITDA was 13.14x and EV/Revenue was 2.56x. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Taylor Morrison Home, an American residential construction company, was acquired for $9.265B by Berkshire Hathaway (NYS: BRK.A). EV/EBITDA was 9.4x and EV/Revenue was 1.22x. Moelis & Company and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

HSBC Life Singapore, provider of life, health, savings, and insurance services, and a subsidiary of HSBC Insurance, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for SGD 2.7B by Allianz Asia Holding.

Private Placement Transactions💭

Etched, developer of rack-scale AI inference hardware, raised $300.0M of Series C venture funding led by Sequoia Capital at a pre-money valuation of $10.0B.

HiDream.ai, developer of an AI generative photo creation platform, raised CNY 1.5B of Series C venture funding led by Sichuan Zhenxing Sci-Tech Innovation Fund, ICBBC Financial Asset Investment, Dunhong Capital Management, and Oriental Fortune Capital.

Restructuring Updates💭

American Efficient

Type: Chapter 11
Debt: Approximately $1.1 billion of liabilities stemming from a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) judgment, including a $722 million civil penalty and $410 million in disgorgement.
What happened: American Efficient and its parent, Modern Energy Group, filed Chapter 11 after FERC accused the company of orchestrating a decade-long fraud involving electricity capacity markets. The filing comes three months after regulators imposed one of the largest penalties ever assessed in the sector.
Scale signal: One of the largest corporate Chapter 11 filings of 2026 by liability size, with over $1 billion in regulatory claims.

Superior Star LLC (Hardee's franchisee)

Type: Chapter 11
Debt: Approximately $7 million in disputed acquisition debt, plus tax and vendor obligations.
What happened: The operator of 59 Hardee's restaurants across 10 states continued its Chapter 11 restructuring after filing to address liabilities arising from its 2023 acquisition.
Scale signal: One of the largest restaurant franchisee restructurings currently active in the U.S.

Whitewater Amphitheater

Type: Chapter 11
Debt: More than $12 million in secured debt.
What happened: The company continued restructuring efforts while marketing the venue for sale and operating through the peak summer concert season.
Scale signal: High-profile entertainment venue restructuring involving one of Texas' premier outdoor concert venues.

Restructuring Rumors💭

Leslie's Pool Supplies

Type: Potential Chapter 11 / restructuring
Debt: Not publicly disclosed.
What happened: Bloomberg reported Leslie's is evaluating a Chapter 11 filing and other strategic alternatives after significant operating losses, Moody's downgrade, and the closure of 80 stores, with another 40 closures expected.
Scale signal: The largest pool supplies retailer in the U.S., making this one of the most significant new retail distress stories of the summer.

Brightline

Type: Potential Chapter 11 / restructuring
Debt: Approximately $5.5 billion.
What happened: Creditors continue negotiating restructuring alternatives while the company seeks additional time to complete refinancing discussions. No comprehensive agreement has yet been reached.
Scale signal: Remains the largest active transportation infrastructure restructuring in North America.

EchoStar / Hughes Network Systems

Type: Potential broader restructuring
Debt: Multi-billion-dollar capital structure, including Hughes' $1.5 billion near-term maturity.
What happened: Following the Dish DBS bankruptcy, investors continue monitoring whether additional restructuring actions will be required at EchoStar or Hughes as refinancing efforts continue. Recent reporting suggests the parent company has avoided an immediate filing through asset sales, but creditor scrutiny remains elevated.
Scale signal: One of the largest ongoing telecom restructurings, involving nationwide satellite, broadband, and wireless assets.