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The S&P 500 rose 0.86% as semiconductor stocks extended their rebound and strong earnings pulled investors back into risk. Oil stayed near $90 after a tenth night of U.S. strikes on Iran. Coinbase surged as traders positioned for a crypto comeback. |
The market chose earnings over the war.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq gained 1.3%. The Dow added 0.74%.
Chip stocks led for a second straight day.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained about 4%. Micron (MU) jumped 12%. Intel (INTC) rose 8%. Marvell (MRVL) added more than 6%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index extended its rebound after ending Friday more than 20% below its late-June peak. Investors moved back into the trade ahead of results from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM).
Earnings helped.
3M (MMM) rose more than 7% after beating estimates and raising its full-year profit outlook. General Motors (GM) gained about 5% after topping revenue and earnings forecasts and lifting its full-year EBIT guidance.
The season is starting strong. Nearly 88% of the roughly 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten earnings estimates.
The market also ignored new 50% tariffs on selected Canadian imports.
The Signal
The tape is willing to buy AI again. This week's earnings must now prove the rebound deserves to last.
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Oil rose even as stocks moved higher.
Brent climbed about 2% and traded near $91. WTI held close to $85 after the United States carried out a tenth straight night of strikes on Iran.
U.S. Central Command said it hit Iranian command centers, missile sites, drone launch areas, maritime assets, and air-defense systems.
Iran kept fighting back.
A tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing its crew to abandon ship. Kuwait also reported strikes on power and desalination plants.
The war is now pressing both major oil routes.
The Houthis declared a naval embargo on Saudi Arabia, putting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at risk. That route has become more important as ships avoid Hormuz. Rystad Energy estimates about 2.5 million barrels per day of Saudi supply could be exposed if Red Sea traffic is hit.
Mediators are still discussing a possible 10-day ceasefire.
Oil is not pricing peace yet.
Energy Signal
The market bought stocks while oil hit five-week highs. That split can hold only while energy stays near $90 and does not become a wider supply shock.
The war is lifting both trading volume and inflation risk.
The U.S.-Iran conflict, uncertainty around the Fed, and sharp moves in AI stocks have pushed investors to reposition portfolios. That is helping exchanges such as Nasdaq, Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group, and Cboe Global Markets.
A stronger IPO market should also support Nasdaq and ICE.
The risk comes from new competition.
The CFTC has taken a more open view toward crypto perpetual futures. Kalshi and Coinbase can now offer products that compete with traditional exchange contracts.
Perpetual futures do not expire and often carry high leverage. Institutional use remains limited, but the products could still pressure fees and market share over time.
Exchange operators are getting the volume today.
Investors want to know who owns the volume tomorrow.
Macro Signal
Volatility is helping the old exchanges. Lighter rules and new products could slowly weaken their grip.
The earnings tape rewarded execution.
3M and General Motors rose because both companies beat expectations and improved guidance.
The weaker results were punished.
Danaher (DHR), MSCI (MSCI), and Genuine Parts (GPC) fell after softer outlooks or higher cost forecasts.
That is the same standard now facing Big Tech.
The chip rebound is based on the idea that AI demand remains strong after last week's selloff. Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM now need to show that spending is still turning into revenue.
The bar remains high.
Semiconductor shares are still up close to 75% this year despite the recent fall. That leaves little room for weak guidance.
Capital Signal
The market is no longer rewarding a good story by itself. It wants an earnings beat, better guidance, and proof that AI spending still earns a return.
Crypto stocks joined the risk-on move.
Bitcoin reached its highest level since mid-June. Coinbase (COIN) surged about 11% to nearly $178 after trading below $150 earlier this month.
Options traders leaned hard into more upside.
More than 114,000 Coinbase calls traded against fewer than 50,000 puts. Over $100 million in options premium changed hands by midday, with about $80 million tied to calls.
The most active contract was the $190 call expiring Friday. Coinbase would need to gain another 7.5% for that trade to pay off.
Robinhood (HOOD) also drew bullish bets. About 125,000 of 170,000 contracts traded were calls. Strategy saw twice as many calls bought as puts.
Prediction markets added another layer.
Kalshi's World Cup winner market has generated about $1.9 billion in volume. That scale is forcing Congress to confront whether sports event contracts are derivatives or gambling.
The CFTC says it has federal authority. States say sports contracts belong under local betting laws.
The agency has only about 550 employees and requested a $410 million budget for fiscal 2027, up 12.3%. The SEC has more than 4,000 staff.
The Verdict
Crypto demand is returning through equities, options, and event contracts. Regulation is now trying to catch a market that has already scaled.
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Tuesday answered the morning question.
The chip trade stood back up.
The S&P crossed 7,500. Micron gained 12%. Intel rose 8%. Strong results from 3M and GM gave investors a reason to look past a tenth night of strikes.
Oil did not confirm the calm.
Brent traded near $91. Hormuz stayed under attack. The Houthis put Saudi Red Sea routes in play.
Crypto also moved back into risk-on mode. Bitcoin reached a one-month high. Coinbase gained 11%. Options traders bet the move has further to run.
The tape chose proof over fear today.
Alphabet and Tesla now have to provide the proof.
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