Geopolitical volatility, energy, AI, and more
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Good morning, and happy Friday! Let’s get you ahead nice and early. |
Today, Wall Street stands at a critical crossroads as investors balance intense geopolitical friction in the Middle East against a high-stakes corporate earnings season and restrictive Federal Reserve policy. Tech sector volatility, declines in macro data, and escalating military conflicts may drive choppy trading across broader markets. Here’s what to watch: |
1) Monitor Geopolitical Volatility and Energy Surges |
Military escalation: U.S. airstrikes in northern Iran and a naval blockade enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz keep systematic risk high. Energy Tax: Brent crude is trading near $85 per barrel. High energy prices threaten to sap consumer spending and drive suspensions of corporate guidance. Defense/Energy Rotation: Expect capital to seek safety in defensive sectors and aerospace names if weekend headline risks prompt pre-closing liquidations.
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2) Assess the AI Trade and Chipmaker De-Risking |
TSMC Paradox: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) posted record earnings with a 67.7% gross margin. However, the stock still dropped. This signals that exceptional growth is already priced into AI infrastructure. Memory Meltdown: Global semiconductor hardware is under heavy pressure. Single-stock leveraged ETF suspensions in South Korea and sharp drops in Micron and SK Hynix point to a broader sector rotation. Tech Vulnerability: The Nasdaq remains highly sensitive to profit-taking. Investors are reassessing the multi-billion-dollar capital expenditure cycles of major tech companies.
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3) Digestion of Major Corporate Earnings |
Streaming Health: Netflix headlines the post-market conversation. Its subscriber growth metrics and ad-tier performance will dictate consumer discretionary sentiment. Blue-Chip Support: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and GE Aerospace (GE) earnings are cushioning the Dow. Strong health insurance and industrial performance are helping offset tech losses.
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4) Decode Key Macro Data and Fed Policy |
Economic Indicators: Friday's economic docket includes vital indicators on manufacturing and consumer sentiment:
Hawkish Fed Reality: Easing wholesale inflation (PPI at 5.5% YoY) offers minor relief. However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintains a hawkish stance, committing to a strict 2% target. Yield Impact: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hovering around 4.56%. This persistent pressure keeps equity valuations under close scrutiny.
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Trade Idea: |
I’m looking at DDOG. The stock is pulling back to the 20 SMA support (the green line below), which could act as a buy point; a break below would be a stop-loss. |
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DDOG Daily Chart |
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Demand for observability technology is increasing, and DDOG may gain momentum as a result. My preferred trade action would be buying short-dated, at-the-money call options. |
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Peace out, RagingBull family, |
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P.S. Our friend, and 30-year pro trader Scott Redler, is hosting a free open house for RagingBull readers next week. |
Monday through Friday. |
All trades are free. |
If you can make it, you should be there. If you can’t make it, don’t worry, you’ll still get the trade alerts sent to you. Scott is a swing trader, so you won’t need to rush in and out of positions. |
I will happily send you your invitation link, and you’ll be ready to roll on Monday morning! Again, it’s free - no credit card required. |
Text “bull” to 8884326183, and you’ll receive your invitation link before Scott’s free open house starts. |
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