PPI at 8:30 Tomorrow. 25 or 50?

September’s producer prices rose 1.3% — triple the forecast. October’s number lands Friday morning, and it decides the size of December’s rate hike.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

W S W Wall Street Wire After the Bell · Evening Special Edition Thursday, November 12, 2026 by Nate Fowler Tuesday’s CPI came in hot. December’s rate hike is now certain. The question left is whether the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points or 50 — and tomorrow’s number is the one that decides. You read this morning that fed funds futures now price a December hike as certain, with 89% odds on a 25-basis-point move and 11% on a 50-basis-point move. Tonight, let’s look at what arrives at 8:30 tomorrow morning. Three questions I’ll answer — What is PPI, and why does the producer side of inflation matter the day after bond markets reopen? — How is the smart money positioned going into the print — and what do the insiders’ filings tell you? — What number would push December from a 25-basis-point hike to 50? CPI told you the consumer side is hot. PPI tells you whether the producer side confirms it. I’ll show you what to read at 8:30.  ↓       $5,000 in Tesla Became $1.1 Million+ $5,000 in Tesla at its IPO would be worth over $1.1 million today. Jeff Brown thinks the next window starts with the Cybercab. See it now.     The Producer Side The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM Eastern on Friday. PPI measures the average change in prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services — think of it as inflation from the factory’s perspective, before those costs reach the consumer. When PPI rises, it signals that the companies making and shipping goods are paying more for raw materials, transportation, and labor. Those costs eventually show up in the prices consumers pay, which is what CPI measures. WHY SEPTEMBER CHANGED THE PICTURE September’s PPI rose 1.3% month over month — more than triple the 0.4% consensus. Year over year, producer prices were up 6.3%, with core PPI (stripping out food and energy) at 5.0%. That number landed two days before CPI confirmed the same story on the consumer side. The combination was the primary reason December hike odds moved from 78% to 100% in a week. Consensus for October PPI is 0.4% month over month. HOW THE MONEY IS POSITIONED COMPANY-SPECIFIC BUYERS Rehan Jaffer put $14.9 million into Six Flags during a sale process — an activist pricing in a premium, not a macro call. WESCO’s new CFO bought $504,000 into an industrial selloff. Magnachip’s director and CEO both purchased a $90 million chipmaker while the semiconductor index sits 20% below its peak. The buy side this week is company-specific, not rate-dependent — these trades work regardless of whether PPI runs hot or soft. DISCRETIONARY SELLERS Motorola Solutions’ CEO sold $36.4 million without a pre-arranged plan, cutting his position in half. WEX’s activist-director exited $42.5 million. Estée Lauder’s director sold $10 million from a stock already down 50%. The sell side chose this moment — none of these were scheduled. Hedge funds sit at their lowest exposure since March 2020, per Goldman’s prime desk. Hot PPI would reinforce that defensive posture. WHAT THE NUMBER DECIDES A December rate hike is already priced as certain. The question is the size. Fed funds futures currently assign 89% odds to a 25-basis-point increase and 11% to 50 basis points. A PPI reading at or below 0.4% month over month would confirm the market’s base case: a standard 25-basis-point hike. A reading above 0.6% — anywhere near September’s 1.3% — shifts those odds. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called Tuesday’s CPI “borderline disturbing.” If PPI confirms that view from the producer side, the 50-basis-point scenario becomes a real conversation. NATE’S TAKE In 25 years I have learned that two inflation readings pointing in the same direction carry more weight than either one alone. CPI told you the consumer side is running hot. PPI tells you whether the producer side is feeding it. September’s 1.3% PPI was the kind of print that rewrites a quarter. If October confirms it, the December meeting goes from a 25-basis-point formality to a live debate between 25 and 50. Bond markets were closed Wednesday for Veterans Day — Thursday was the first chance to react to CPI. Friday adds PPI on top of that. Two inflation prints, two days apart, with a newly reopened bond market absorbing both. That is the most concentrated rate-risk window since September. — Nate Fowler After the Bell · Evening Special Edition   Read our Privacy Policy Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 The Wall Street Wire by Everest Media Brands LLC 2918 Avenue I #1407 Brooklyn, NY 11210, United States