Intel spent billions building AI chips and lost 28.58% in a day. HF Sinclair spent billions refining crude oil into gasoline and earned $2 billion in a single quarter. Its CEO put $1.11 million into the stock the day before a tanker attack sent crude higher.
You read this morning that Franklin Myers, CEO of HF Sinclair, purchased 10,000 shares on October 29 — his third buy since May. Tonight, let’s look at the business he keeps buying into.
Three questions I’ll answer
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What does a petroleum refiner actually do — and why is it different from an oil company? |
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How did HF Sinclair’s refining margins triple in one year — and what does $54 per barrel mean? |
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Why did the CEO buy the day before a Strait of Hormuz attack — and what does his total position tell you? |
The most profitable business in energy right now is not the company that finds the oil. It is the one that turns it into gasoline. ↓
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I’m about to get into this Cybercab… and it’s going to take me to what Elon Musk called… |
“The most epic AI project ever.” |
Click here and come with me on this ride… |
Because this is all part of Elon Musk’s $320 trillion masterplan. |
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The Refinery Math
HF Sinclair (ticker: DINO) is not an oil company. It is a petroleum refiner — a company that buys crude oil, processes it through industrial plants, and sells the finished products: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, and specialty chemicals. It operates seven refineries across the Mid-Continent, West, and Southwest United States. It does not drill for oil. It does not own wells. It buys crude at one price and sells refined fuel at a higher one. The difference between those two prices — what the crude costs and what the finished product sells for — is the entire business. On Wall Street, that difference is called the crack spread.
THE NUMBERS
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Q3 Revenue (beat estimate by 22%)
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$10.86B
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Q3 Adjusted EPS (beat by 53%)
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$11.75
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Refinery Gross Margin / Barrel (+183% YoY)
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$54.22
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Q3 Shareholder Returns
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$572M
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WHY MARGINS TRIPLED
In Q3 2025, HF Sinclair earned $19.16 for every barrel of refined product it sold. In Q3 2026, that number was $54.22 — a 183% increase. The reason: tight supply. Global refining capacity has not kept pace with fuel demand, Middle East supply disruptions have reduced the number of barrels entering the system, and crack spreads widened as a result. Refining segment EBITDA — a measure of operating profit — reached $2.6 billion, up from $661 million a year earlier. The company returned $572 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in the quarter and raised its dividend 5%. Management said on the earnings call it expects market tightness to persist until at least 2028.
WHY THE CEO BOUGHT HERE
Myers purchased $1.11 million of stock on October 29 — the same day the company reported Q3 results and the day before three tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes. This was his third open-market buy since May, bringing his total investment to $3.42 million. When a CEO buys after reporting the strongest quarter in the company’s recent history, with Brent crude above $113 and supply disruptions intensifying, he is telling you the margin environment has not peaked.
NATE’S TAKE
In 25 years I have watched executives sell after strong quarters far more often than I have watched them buy. Myers did the opposite. He put $1.11 million in the day his company reported $2 billion in net income, a 183% margin expansion, and a fifth straight earnings beat. Then the Strait of Hormuz attack gave him an even better setup. The refining business is the simplest trade in energy: buy crude, sell gasoline, keep the spread. Right now that spread is $54.22 per barrel — the widest in years — and the CEO who sees the order book every morning is adding to his position. Record margins, a supply-constrained market, and a CEO buying with his own money. That is the cleanest read I have seen in energy this quarter.
— Nate Fowler
After the Bell · Evening Special Edition
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