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The line between prediction markets and traditional derivatives trading is becoming increasingly blurred. On Tuesday, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig announced that perpetual futures contracts tied to individual stocks can begin trading on qualifying federally regulated exchanges. The development opens another avenue for US traders to access financial products that have gained popularity in offshore markets.
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“This expansion marks a significant step towards allowing U.S. market participants, consistent with applicable law, to avail themselves of the advantages of perpetual futures that have led to their emergence as widely sought tools for risk-management and price-discovery,” Selig said. “I believe that bringing these types of innovative products into our regulated markets ensures that American investors and traders can access these products within the protections of the CFTC’s proven regulatory framework, rather than being forced to turn to offshore, and often unregulated, venues.”
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Unlike conventional futures, perpetual contracts have no fixed expiration date, allowing traders to maintain exposure without continually rolling positions into new contracts. Kalshi is already positioning itself to capitalize on the opening, filing rule changes that would allow qualifying newly public companies to become eligible for single-stock perpetual futures as early as two business days after their IPOs. The proposal targets a narrow group of large companies, with substantial market capitalization and trading requirements in place.
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Top 5 Markets
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2028 US Presidential Election winner? The market has seen a significant post-midterm shift. Jon Ossoff (18%) has moved into the top spot, ahead of Gavin Newsom (13%), JD Vance (12%), and Marco Rubio (12%).
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Kalshi
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Will Trump be impeached by? An expected midterm sweep by Democrats has come to fruition, increasing speculation on potential ripple effects. The contract for June 30, 2027 is now trading at 62%.
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Polymarket
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Traders remain divided over how soon shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal. The contract for before January 1, 2027 is priced at 50%.
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Kalshi
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Fed decision in December? Polymarket traders continue to lean strongly toward a 25 bps increase (79%) as the result of the next meeting, ahead of no change (21%) in rates.
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Polymarket
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Bitcoin price on Friday at 5 p.m. ET? The crypto enters the middle of the week trading around $78.2K and has been south of $79K for several days. Traders have the $78,000 or above contract priced at 54%.
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Kalshi
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Jeff Brown believes by the end of this month, this Elon Musk new AI breakthrough will collide…
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With a powerful market prophecy that has correctly predicted some of the biggest market booms going back to 1950…
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Giving Americans a rare and perhaps last chance to turn a small stake into an entire six-figure nest egg in the next 12-18 months.
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The last time something like this happened, investors had a chance to turn a small stake of $10,000 into as much as $366,000 in just 14 months.
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Debuts, Movers & Trending Markets
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after midterms? The final tally isn’t official just yet, but Democrats gained a substantial majority. The Kalshi forecast currently calls for 251+.
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Kalshi
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Republican Senate seats after the midterms? On the Senate side, the same applies. The Polymarket price for 44 seats is 82%, with 45 at 16% and 46 going for 3%.
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Polymarket
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Which company has the best AI model at the end of November? For the monthly chase to top the LLM leaderboard, Google/Gemini (67%) holds a substantial lead over Anthropic/Claude (31%).
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Polymarket
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2027 NBA champion? The NBA took Tuesday night off and resumes with a full slate on Wednesday. The Spurs (23%) have taken over the price lead to win it all, ahead of the Thunder (16%) and 76ers (13%).
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Kalshi
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Thursday Night Football - Jaguars vs. Ravens: NFL Week 9 kicks off on Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, with Jacksonville a hefty road favorite for the trip to Baltimore.
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Kalshi
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Where Does the Money Go Next?
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The 2026 midterms provided prediction markets with one of the year's biggest trading catalysts. With Election Day behind us, attention now turns to where that activity goes next. The final weeks of 2026 offer another test of whether the industry's growing range can sustain participation beyond major headline events.
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Activity: Political trading shifts toward congressional leadership, policy developments, and the 2028 presidential race. Meanwhile, the NFL, college football, the December Fed decision, and year-end financial markets provide ongoing catalysts.
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Drivers: Major events concentrate attention and liquidity, but participation can fade once contracts settle. Recurring sports schedules, economic announcements, and an expanding lineup of financial products can attract traders throughout the year.
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Insight: The distinction between trading volume and sustained liquidity matters. Major events demonstrate demand, but they don't necessarily establish that other markets can consistently support deep order books, competitive pricing, and active participation.
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Our Take:
The midterms brought a substantial audience, but the next eight weeks will help distinguish event-driven activity from broader trading habits. Each category has its own audience, trading patterns, and reasons for participation, opening questions on both attention and retention. As platforms introduce more sophisticated financial products, are they expanding their existing customer relationships or building an entirely different business alongside them? The answers will help determine whether prediction markets are becoming a unified trading destination or a collection of specialized markets sharing the same infrastructure.
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News to Know
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Sporttrade has received CFTC approval to operate as a federally regulated prediction market exchange. NextPredict has the details.
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Prediction market volume boomed to record-setting volume in October. DeFi Rate breaks down the numbers.
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What’s the potential impact of the midterm election results on the prediction market regulatory fight? FrontOfficeSports analyzes.
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The CBC took a pre-midterm look at the potential impact of prediction markets on public perception and results.
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In a chat with Columbia Journalism Review, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour expressed optimism that prediction markets will help ‘depolarize the conversation.’
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Prediction markets are entering the final stretch of 2026 with an expanding set of opportunities and a changing competitive landscape. Regulatory coordination is opening the door to new financial products, while exchanges such as Kalshi are looking beyond the event contracts that helped bring the industry into the mainstream.
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The next phase of growth will depend on how effectively prediction market platforms compete in established financial markets while retaining traders beyond major events. With the midterms behind us and new products on the horizon, the challenge is turning heightened interest into sustained participation rather than relying on the next volume record.
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