Three straight down days. |
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That is what everyone saw. |
→ Wednesday: -5%.
→ Thursday: -3.6%.
→ Markets closed Friday for Juneteenth.
→ Monday: -16.4%. |
SpaceX closed at $154.60 — its biggest one-day decline since going public and a sharp reversal from last week's peak near $225. |
The company confirmed its first-ever bond sale Monday morning.
Many investors immediately pointed to the debt offering as the reason for the selloff. |
But the bond is only part of the story. |
The bigger story is what happens next. |
More specifically: who gets to sell, when they get to sell, and how many shares could suddenly become available.
Here is the story. ⇩
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SpaceX insiders are getting ready to dump as much as $1.6 trillion in paper wealth – the biggest cashout in market history. The same thing happened in 1999 right before the dot-com crash... and now, it's happening again. To see where to move your money before the Melt Up reaches its dramatic conclusion, click here while there's still time.
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The Bond Is Now Confirmed |
SpaceX filed officially Monday morning confirming its first-ever bond sale. The filing itself did not disclose a size, but Bloomberg's reporting from last week — at least $20 billion — remains the working number.
Proceeds will repay in full the bridge loan SpaceX took out in February to fund the xAI acquisition, plus related fees. Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley — the same five banks that ran the IPO — are expected to run this deal too. |
Debt offerings can pressure a freshly public stock simply because they exist — investors start asking questions about interest expense and why a company needs more outside funding so soon.
But the bond by itself does not explain a three-day collapse from $225 to $154.60 — wiping out most of the post-IPO gain in less than a week.
The real explanation is the calendar.
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The Calendar. |
Insiders can sell up to 44% of SpaceX by early September. The float could grow 900%. |
22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson laid out the actual lockup schedule — and once you see it, the last three days make a lot more sense. |
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Today only about 4.2% of SpaceX shares are freely tradeable. |
That scarcity helped fuel the IPO rally. |
The problem is that scarcity doesn't last forever.
That means up to 44% of shares could become eligible for sale by early September. |
For context:
Today's float is approximately 4.2%. |
The available share supply could increase by roughly 900%.
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The Bull Case Has One Challenge |
Many bulls have pointed to upcoming Nasdaq and MSCI inclusion as a powerful source of future buying. |
That argument still has merit. |
But Jacobson highlights an important catch. |
The index providers will initially weight SpaceX based on its free float — not its full market capitalization. |
That means the passive buying may be smaller than many investors expect. |
At the same time insider selling pressure could be growing. |
That combination helps explain why investors suddenly became more cautious. |
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The Most Honest Rating Yet → |
KeyBanc initiated coverage with a Sector Weight rating. |
Neither bullish nor bearish. |
Analyst Michael Leshock summarized the situation well:
"We see many high-growth avenues over the long term, though risk/reward appears balanced in the near term." |
After a week of extreme opinions, that may be the most realistic assessment so far. |
→ Strong long-term opportunities.
→ Plenty of short-term uncertainty. |
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Even The Good News Didn't Work… |
The whole sector got hit.
Rocket Lab joined the Nasdaq 100 today. Normally that would be a celebration.
Instead, the stock fell. |
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That may be the clearest sign that Monday wasn't just about SpaceX. |
The entire sector was under pressure. |
Rocket Lab had:
→ A $2.2 billion backlog
→ 64% revenue growth
→ Nasdaq 100 inclusion |
Yet sellers still won. |
Sometimes market sentiment overwhelms company-specific news. |
That appears to be what happened Monday.
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Greenspan's Lesson |
Alan Greenspan died today at age 100. |
Most investors remember him for two words: |
"Irrational exuberance." |
Those words became synonymous with the dot-com bubble. |
What many people forget is what happened next. |
Greenspan made the comment in December 1996. |
And… the Nasdaq rallied for more than three additional years. |
Yahoo Finance compared today's AI-driven market with the dot-com era. |
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That is the lesson. |
Markets can stay enthusiastic much longer than most investors expect. |
And sometimes the hardest part is recognizing the difference between a warning and a prediction.
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The Market Trades Expectations |
Nothing has changed yet at SpaceX. |
1\ The insider shares have not been sold.
2\ The float has not expanded.
3\ September is still months away. |
Yet the stock fell sharply because investors are already thinking about what those future events could mean. |
If traders believe millions of new shares could hit the market in a few months, some will sell today rather than wait for it to happen. |
That doesn't mean they are right. |
It doesn't mean the stock can't recover. |
It simply means the market is constantly trying to stay one step ahead. |
The lesson: By the time the event arrives, the market may have already spent weeks reacting to it.
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Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇 |
Poll of the day:Which piece of "dad advice" ages best? |
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Disclaimer: This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills.
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