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Behind the Markets
This Week's Featured News
Iran Ceasefire or Not, These 3 Companies Could WinReported by Nathan Reiff. Date Posted: 6/15/2026. 
Key Points
- An end to the war in Iran would no doubt benefit travel companies like United Airlines, Marriott, and Royal Caribbean, but these stocks may be positioned for success even if a ceasefire doesn't come.
- A combination of pricing power, strong cash positions, fuel hedging, and more help to strengthen each of these firms' prospects.
- Analysts are bullish on all three of these stocks despite the geopolitical headwinds.
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More than 100 days after the start of the Iran war, investors are still struggling to predict when or how it might end. With headlines swinging between ceasefire talk and renewed attacks, it remains difficult to gauge how the conflict could develop—and what its market impact may be. Given this uncertainty, investors may want to focus on stocks that could benefit from a ceasefire but may also hold up if the fighting drags on. A clear set of potential winners in the event of a cessation of fighting in the Iran war would be companies tied to travel and leisure industries, both of which are closely linked to oil and fuel prices. Companies like United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL), Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL) all fit this bill. However, each of these companies may also perform well if the war continues, and that optimism is reflected in broad Wall Street sentiment. United Benefits From Lower Fuel Costs but Could Prove Resilient Even If the Conflict Continues
United Airlines, like other airlines across the industry, is heavily impacted by the Iran conflict, particularly because of fluctuating jet fuel costs. If fuel prices fall, United is a direct beneficiary—and during recent ceasefire announcements, airline stocks such as UAL rallied on investor expectations of just that scenario. Beyond fuel costs, the Iran conflict introduces fresh geopolitical risk that affects air corridors, flight logistics, and demand for international travel. All of this pressures profits and margins for United, which must continue to outpace its high fixed operating costs regardless. If the war continues, United does have the ability to pass higher fuel costs through to customers. In fact, the company said in its Q1 2026 earnings report that it expected to fully recoup increased jet fuel costs over 2026, supporting double-digit pre-tax margins in 2027. The company was also able to pay down more than $3 billion in debt in the first quarter while tripling its cash reserves. United has suggested it may also reduce capacity. By trimming marginal routes, the firm can focus on its more profitable operations. Marriott's Pass-Through Potential Is Also Strong, and RevPAR Headwinds May Be OverstatedLike United, Marriott benefits when business travel recovers, and corporations tend to expand travel budgets when geopolitical risks ease. That could be especially important for international travel, which is likely to get a lift when the conflict in Iran is resolved. Broader consumer confidence would likely improve as well, and with customers less worried about war or travel costs, leisure spending may also strengthen. The Middle East conflict is undoubtedly a headwind for Marriott—the company expects it could reduce full-year global revenue per available room (revPAR) by 100-125 basis points—but the chain outperformed in Q1 on revPAR and recently raised its full-year guidance. Financial results were also strong in the first quarter despite the obstacles, with adjusted EBITDA up 15% year-over-year (YOY) and adjusted earnings per share rising 17% over the same period. Marriott may also be able to pass some of its added costs along to customers through higher room rates. The company also has the advantage of franchising many of its locations, which helps reduce its exposure to energy costs. Finally, domestic travel may be less affected by the conflict than international travel, giving Marriott a strong part of its business to lean on. Royal Caribbean Has Fuel Resilience Even If the Conflict ContinuesCruise lines like Royal Caribbean are also exposed to fuel prices, which tend to be one of the highest operating costs for a company like this. Like airlines, cruise stocks tend to get a boost when headlines suggest a ceasefire may be near. Another potential benefit for Royal Caribbean if the conflict in Iran ends would likely be stronger booking trends, which are closely tied to consumer confidence. On the other hand, if the war continues, Royal Caribbean may be able to rely on its strong pricing power, thanks to cruise demand that has remained surprisingly resilient since COVID. The company has also positioned itself well with fuel hedging, which may give it an edge over some rivals. Analysts are bullish on RCL shares, with nearly three quarters calling the stock a Buy and a consensus price target that suggests about 20% potential upside. . |
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