Kamis, 06 Agustus 2026

Elon/AI/China/Trillions this time...

August 06, 2026

Elon/AI/China/Trillions this time...

Featured: Bessent Calls the K-Shape Finished. I’m Not Buying It.

Bessent Calls the K-Shape Finished. I’m Not Buying It.

Hey there, bargain hunter.

When a Treasury Secretary goes on TV and declares a whole economic shape “over,” markets are supposed to nod, rotate, and move on.

My problem is simple. The consumer data does not look like a neat convergence story yet. It still looks like a barbell: premium buyers keep buying, value shoppers keep hunting, and the middle gets squeezed in between.

That is not politics. That is positioning.

Scoreboard: what happened (moves, key numbers)

Here are the numbers I care about heading into August.

Wage momentum (broad): The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker edged up to 3.6% in June 2026 (3-month moving average of median wage growth).
After-tax wage gap (household income): Bank of America Institute’s deposit-based read showed a wide split earlier this year, with higher-income households running materially faster growth than lower-income cohorts in March (one reason “K-shaped” keeps reappearing in serious research notes).
Value retail operating leverage: Dollar General’s Q1 fiscal 2026 results showed net sales up 3.4% and operating profit up 10.8% to $638.5 million.
Next hard catalyst: The BLS Employment Situation for July 2026 is scheduled for Friday, August 7, 2026.

If you are trying to trade the “K-shape is dead” call, those are the scorekeeping categories. Not vibes. Not declarations.

The real reason: expectations vs reality

Markets do not price the economy. Markets price the gap between what investors expect and what shows up in the data.

The expectation Bessent is trying to seed is a clean convergence story. Call it “C-shaped,” call it whatever you want. The claim only matters if it changes two things:

Corporate results: the squeezed middle starts posting cleaner demand, fewer promotions, and improving unit volumes.
Multiples: investors stop paying up for the barbell extremes (premium and discount) and start re-rating the middle again.

Right now, the evidence still reads like “narrowing in pockets” rather than “gap closed.” Bank of America’s after-tax wage series has shown months where lower-income growth accelerates and the gap narrows. It has not been a straight line. And after-tax measures can get noisy when withholding behavior shifts.

So my stance is conservative: treat the “C-shape” as a tradable hypothesis, not a confirmed regime shift.

Deep dive: what the business/theme is; how it makes money

This whole debate collapses into a single, very investable theme: consumer bifurcation.

At the premium end, households with assets keep spending. They are less sensitive to grocery inflation, more likely to pay for convenience, and more willing to fund experiences.

At the value end, households fight inflation with substitution. Smaller baskets. More private label. More trips to price-led channels.

In the middle, brands that are neither “best deal” nor “true premium” get pinched. They end up buying demand with promos, and promos are basically a tax on margins.

The way these businesses make money is not mysterious:

Discount retail wins on traffic + inventory turns plus incremental margin from better shrink control and supply chain efficiency.
Premium and experience-heavy categories win on pricing power and a customer who is not living paycheck to paycheck.
Middle-market retail lives or dies by gross margin stability. If promos rise, EPS gets fragile fast.

Data section: concrete metrics

If we strip this down to metrics you can actually track, here is the minimalist dashboard.

1) Wages, not headlines

Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker:3.6% in June 2026.
What I want to see for a real “C-shape”: sustained outperformance by the lower-income cohort across multiple releases, not a one-month pop.

2) After-tax pay, with skepticism

Bank of America Institute’s account-based work is useful because it is closer to real-time household cash flow than many survey series. It has also highlighted how wide the income wage gap became this year.

But as bargain hunters, we should be careful with any “after-tax” series. Withholding changes and W-4 behavior can temporarily shift take-home pay without an equivalent change in gross wages. Treat sudden improvements as “needs confirmation,” not “case closed.”

3) The value channel tells the truth faster

Dollar General is not a macro model. It is a thermometer.

DG Q1 fiscal 2026: net sales +3.4%; operating profit +10.8% to $638.5 million.
Why it matters: DG can improve profits even in a pressured consumer environment. The more interesting tell is whether demand is coming from core shoppers recovering, or from higher-income trade-down that might reverse later.

Is it cheap?: valuation framing vs expectations

I am not going to throw random P/E ratios at you without checking live market prices inside this editor, so we are going to do this the Cheap Investor way: cheapness versus expectations.

Right now, expectations look like this:

Discount retail: expected to keep taking share because value matters. Results like DG’s profit jump reinforce that.
Premium experiences: expected to stay resilient because high-income spending is still doing the heavy lifting.
Middle-market discretionary: expected to remain promo-heavy, margin-thin, and inconsistent.

So the “cheap” opportunity, if it arrives, is mostly in the middle. But it only unlocks when the data forces the market to believe the middle consumer has real breathing room again.

Bull/Base/Bear: what could go right and what could go wrong

Bull: the convergence finally shows up in the numbers

What would change my mind?

Atlanta Fed wage momentum holds up and starts showing a clearer advantage for the lower-income cohort.
After-tax wage acceleration in lower-income data persists for multiple months.
The July jobs report (Aug 7, 2026) does not show stress building in lower-wage categories.

Trade implication: the middle-market discretionary names stop being value traps and start being rerating candidates.

Base: barbell stays in place

This is still my default.

Wage growth remains “fine,” but not meaningfully equalizing.
High-income spending continues to carry the top end.
Value retail stays busy, partly because trade-down remains a feature, not a bug.

Trade implication: stay barbelled. Avoid the mushy middle unless you have a catalyst and a tight risk plan.

Bear: the top end finally blinks

The K-shape’s dirty secret is that it leans on affluent confidence. If that cracks, premium and experience-heavy spending can fall faster than people expect.

Trade implication: the barbell narrows, but not in a happy way. It narrows because the top comes down, not because the bottom rises.

Action plan: buy/hold/trim + scale-in framework

Here is the playbook I would hand a cost-conscious investor who hates paying full price for anything, including stocks.

Core stance (now): barbell exposure beats heroic macro bets.
Value retail (example: DG):hold or accumulate in small clips only if your thesis is operational improvement plus durable traffic. Respect the possibility that some demand is trade-down that can reverse.
Middle-market discretionary:watchlist only until wages and jobs data confirm real relief. If you want exposure, scale in after confirmation, not before.
Premium experiences: treat as trim-on-strength if positioning gets crowded and the macro starts wobbling.

My timing bias: let the data do the talking over the next few weeks. The July jobs report on August 7, 2026 matters more than any cable segment.

Cheap Investor checklist/scorecard: 8 items to track

Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker level and trend (next update).
Bank of America Institute after-tax wage growth spread: lower vs higher income.
BLS Employment Situation on Aug 7, 2026: payroll growth, unemployment rate, and wage growth.
Any sign of job softness in lower-wage categories like leisure and hospitality.
Dollar General commentary next quarter: core-customer traffic vs trade-down traffic.
Promotional intensity at mid-tier retailers (listen for margin language).
Credit stress indicators you can see indirectly: more “value” behavior, smaller baskets, more buy-now-pay-later marketing.
Your own portfolio concentration: are you accidentally all-in on one income cohort?

Bottom line

If the next few wage and jobs updates show sustained, broad-based improvement for lower-income households, then the “middle-market recovery” trade deserves a fresh look.

If they do not, then the K-shape is not “over,” it is just being renamed. And the cheapest, most practical positioning stays the same: stick to the barbell, keep your risk defined, and do not pay premium prices for a thesis that is not yet in the data.

This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk.

The Cheap Investor is a publication of Investing Media Solutions, LLC.

_{To view our full policies:}_Disclaimer_|_{Privacy Policy}_|_{Terms & Conditions}

Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here

203 N La Salle Suite 2100
Chicago , Illinois 60601, United States

Trump Issues Emergency Order That Supports Elon Musk's Next Venture

August 06, 2026 | Read online

Dear Reader,

Without most people noticing, Elon Musk has started a new venture that has nothing to do with rockets, EVs, Neuralink, or tunnels.

Trump has personally issued emergency support to roll this underlying tech out as fast as possible.

It's already live in multiple states.

Behind the scenes, demand for this is already spiking...

The Financial Times says Sam Altman is begging people on the phone to build this for him and OpenAI.

And the best part for you and your wealth is:

A few little-known companies control the supply chain.

Anyone who wants this tech - be it Sam Altman or even Elon himself - must go through these companies to get it.

You can simply buy their stocks right now... before this news becomes common knowledge.

But you ought to move fast. Because leaked satellite images are already showing up online...

Click here to see how you could back Elon Musk's next venture from your regular brokerage account.

Regards,

Joel Litman
Chief Investment Officer, Altimetry

Just For You

Everyone’s Focused on China—But That’s Not ASML’s Biggest Risk

Reported by Dan Schmidt. Posted: 7/31/2026.

Key Points

ASML shares fell 10% in two sessions after reports that China's Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group is producing competing lithography machines.
Aishengna currently only makes DUV machines and remains years away from matching ASML's advanced EUV lithography technology and record backlog.
The bigger risk may be the proposed MATCH Act, which could restrict ASML from selling or servicing equipment in China.
Special Report: The SpaceX IPO Wasn't For You (From Freedom Financial)

Few companies have benefited more from the AI gold rush than ASML Holdings N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML), which holds a monopoly over a key bottleneck in the semiconductor pipeline.

However, its grip on the market was shaken this week by reports that a Chinese competitor has begun producing similar lithography machines. The news drove ASML shares down 10% in just two sessions, bringing the stock’s 30-day decline closer to bear-market territory.

Other stocks along the semiconductor supply chain, including KLA Corp. (NASDAQ: KLA) and Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT), were also dragged lower. Still, there’s no reason for investors to panic about ASML’s position—at least not yet.

What the News This Week Really Says About China’s Lithography Challenge

The competitor finally has a name: Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group, a state-sponsored conglomerate comprising multiple Chinese tech firms. Founded in 2023, the company plans to ship five of its deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines this year, with another 20 tentatively scheduled for 2027. Details are scarce given the source country, but the company appears to have assembled teams from multiple industries to build a domestic competitor to ASML’s ultraviolet lithography machines, which can cost upwards of $40 million each.

ASML has maintained a stranglehold over this particular industry since the start of the AI boom, but after a 130% gain over the last 12 months, investors have itchy trigger fingers. However, there seems to be little in this narrative that threatens the company’s engineering lead, at least for now. ASML plans to ship 130 DUV machines in 2026, with capacity expanding another 30% in 2027. The company raised its full-year revenue and gross margin guidance during its Q2 2026 earnings report in late June, despite Q2 system sales to China declining to 14% of net sales, down from 19% in Q1.

Additionally, ASML’s true monopoly lies in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, a technology that Aishengna appears to be many years away from harnessing, if it can do so at all. ASML has spent the better part of two decades developing its technology and partnering with crucial suppliers, such as Zeiss SMT, which makes the precise optical systems used in EUV machines. Currently, Aishengna can produce only DUV lithography machines that operate at a 193-nanometer (nm) wavelength. ASML’s EUV machines operate at a 13.5nm wavelength, giving the company exclusive access to a range of next-generation semiconductors that require the density only EUV can provide.

ASML’s sales to China are already declining, and the fact that the company is adding both DUV and EUV capacity shows that management does not view Aishengna as a serious threat to its backlog. The Chinese machine is also unproven and will require rigorous testing before it can be considered a match for ASML’s existing models. In addition, no competitor can touch ASML’s Installed Base Management segment, which covers maintenance and upgrades for existing systems. Installed Base Management generated 30% of the company’s Q2 revenue, a figure that grew 5% year over year (YOY).

The True Threat Is Legislative, Not Engineering

The technology may be inferior, but when has an inferior product ever stopped the government from putting its thumb on the scale? Any competitor that accepts a less capable system also accepts lower productivity and higher costs, and no company is going to choose worse outcomes voluntarily. However, companies in China may soon have no choice.

Beijing has long sought to limit the influence of foreign AI tools, implementing strong subsidies for domestically manufactured equipment and incentives to hire talent. Meanwhile, in Washington, Congress has introduced the MATCH Act, a bill that would limit the sale of semiconductor equipment to U.S. adversaries, including China. All DUV immersion machines and services are covered under the bill, which would prevent ASML from selling or servicing products in China.

The bill has yet to pass the House, so implementation of these protocols is likely an early 2027 story. However, it does create a converging thesis: Aishengna may not need to displace ASML’s technology; it only needs to provide an alternative that export-strapped Chinese firms can use.

Chart Shows Pullback Has Teeth, but Long-Term Uptrend Remains in Place

Whether the threat is political or engineering-based, it has exacerbated the downtrend in ASML shares, which have fallen over 15% in the last month. During its 12-month run, the stock has become no stranger to false breakdowns, in which the price dips below the 50-day moving average and sends a sell signal to investors. However, this can be a false positive when the long-term uptrend remains intact, and the current pullback could give investors an opportunity to buy the stock at less than 40 times forward earnings.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that selling pressure has driven the stock below its typical range, and the indicator is now approaching the oversold threshold of 30. However, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages still suggest a strong underlying uptrend, and neither the legislative nor engineering threats can touch the company’s EUV franchise or its record backlog.

This ad is sent on behalf of Altimetry, 110 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02141. If you would like to optout from receiving offers from Altimetry please click here.

Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here

345 N Reid Place #620
Sioux Falls, SD 57106, United States

Elon Just Predicted a Massive Price Collapse

Elon Just Predicted a Massive Price Collapse

Elon Musk says AI could send the cost of goods and services plummeting.

Most investors see danger.

Alex Green sees the next great buying opportunity.

The veteran investor—who famously recommended Apple at $1 and NVIDIA at $1.10 (split-adjusted)—believes this shift could create a new generation of winners...

Full Details Here >>

🧾 What a 3.8% raise really buys

The 2027 Social Security estimate is out. The number matters less than what it covers.

🌙 TONIGHT'S NUMBERS

3.8% — the Senior Citizens League's latest 2027 Social Security cost-of-living estimate, a full point above this year's 2.8%.

$73.62 — the estimated monthly increase for the average benefit if that holds, lifting it to about $2,011.

One research group lays out how it thinks patient investors might position for the AI build-out. See the outline. (From Brownstone Research)

Every autumn, tens of millions of retirees wait on a single number. It is the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, that sets how much Social Security checks rise the following year. This week the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group that tracks the figure closely, raised its 2027 estimate to 3.8%. That would be a full percentage point above this year's 2.8% raise. Here's what to know before you pencil it in: the number is an estimate, not the final word. For a household living mostly on that check, the gap between a good raise and a thin one is not abstract. It shows up in the grocery budget.

The official figure will not be set until mid-October, once the government has inflation readings for July, August, and September. If 3.8% holds, the average monthly benefit would climb about $73.62, from roughly $1,938 to $2,011. That sounds better than last year. Whether it feels better depends on what the money has to cover. Warren Buffett has long described inflation as a kind of tax, one that quietly trims what a dollar buys, and a COLA is really an attempt to hand some of that back. For most retirees, it is the main defense their income has against prices, since few have a paycheck that adjusts on its own.

History shows how much these adjustments can swing. The 2023 COLA came in at 8.7%, the largest since 1981, after prices spiked across the economy. By 2025 the raise had settled back to 2.5% as inflation cooled. A 3.8% estimate for 2027 sits in between, and it carries a familiar catch. Rising Medicare Part B premiums are usually deducted straight from the Social Security check, so the headline raise and the deposited raise are rarely the same. Worth keeping an eye on as the fall inflation numbers come in.

ADVERTISEMENT · STANSBERRY

A veteran analyst sorts the AI winners from the losers

A long-time market analyst, known for an early call on Nvidia, argues the AI boom is about to separate durable businesses from the hype. He names the companies he believes land on each side. It is a research firm's free presentation. Take the specific picks with the usual grain of salt, but the framework for telling real earnings from a good story is useful on its own.

Watch the presentation

(Ad)

Now to the numbers that actually pay you.

💵 INCOME WATCH

Declared. Broadridge (BR) declared a $1.09 quarterly dividend on Aug. 3 and raised its annual payout 12%, to $4.36 a share. It has increased the dividend every year since going public in 2007.

Ex-dates ahead. A quiet week for the big income names. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) goes ex-dividend Aug. 25, Coca-Cola (KO) on Sep. 15, and the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) on Sep. 23. None fall in the next five trading days.

Yield check. The 10-year Treasury has held near 4.6% this week. SCHD, a widely held dividend ETF, yields about 3.1%.

One thing to circle for tomorrow.

📅 TOMORROW'S CALENDAR

8:30 a.m. ET — July jobs report. The payroll headline will lead, but the wage figure, forecast at 3.5%, feeds the inflation gauges that set next year's Social Security raise. Watch it alongside the 4.2% jobless rate.

Through the session — second-quarter earnings wind down. A lighter run of results, with a few income-paying names still to report.

The alerts desk sends a brief note when a number that matters actually lands, like tomorrow's jobs report. Free, two to three texts a week, opt out anytime. Sign up here.

Does a 3.8% raise keep pace with what you actually spend in retirement? I read every note, so tell me.

— Randy Cole, Editor

P.S. A quick free briefing from our team on what OpenAI's next moves could mean for everyday investors. Read it here.

Your interaction with our content, in any format, is appreciated. We value your time and the trust you place in our communications. Thank you for being an active member of our community, and we look forward to continued exchanges in the future.

Privacy Policy

The Money Memo ("the Company") values the privacy of visitors to the The Money Memo site and users of our services. This notice explains how we collect, use, and protect information.

Why You’re Receiving This Email

You’re receiving this email because at some point, you opted in to receive updates, news, or information on a specific topic we’ve previously discussed or shared. Whether it was through a subscription, a form submission, or another form of communication, your information was shared willingly, and we respect your decision to connect with us.

Thank you for taking the time to read this email. This message is part of an ongoing conversation between us, and I want to take a moment to ensure you have full transparency about why you received this message, how your information is handled, and what to expect from future emails.

If you’re wondering about the nature of our correspondence, rest assured that we aim to keep all emails relevant, timely, and from unnecessary clutter. This includes respecting your inbox and refraining from sending irrelevant messages.

A Commitment to Non-Intrusive Emails

We aim to create a non-intrusive communication experience. This means we won’t overwhelm your inbox with excessive messages, and we work hard to ensure our content remains clear and concise. The purpose of this email is to stay connected with you and provide updates or information that we believe is meaningful. If we ever fail to meet these standards, we encourage you to let us know.

Feedback, whether positive or constructive, is always appreciated. Your thoughts help us understand how we can do better and improve our communication approach. While we cannot promise every suggestion will be implemented, we will take the time to carefully review and consider your input.

Accessibility and Communication

If you have any trouble accessing the unsubscribe page, managing preferences, or understanding why you’re receiving this email, you can reach out directly to our support team. We aim to provide a response within a reasonable time frame and address your concerns effectively.

Our communication is designed to be as inclusive as possible, but we know there’s always room for improvement. If you have any feedback on how we can make our emails more accessible or relevant, please don’t hesitate to share.

Your Privacy is Important

We value your trust and take your privacy very seriously. The information you provide is securely stored and never shared, sold, or used outside the purpose for which you provided it.

This privacy policy describes how we collect, use, and protect your information. We collect information you voluntarily provide, such as your name, email address, or phone number. We may also collect technical data from your visit, including browser type, operating system, and your IP address.

We use this information to respond to your inquiries, provide access to services, and improve our communications. We do not share your information with unrelated third parties.

Some of our services may use third-party tools that store or process data on our behalf. These tools are selected with care and are expected to maintain data responsibly.

We do not knowingly collect personal information from children under 13 years of age. If we discover that such information was provided without parental consent, we will delete it promptly.

You can request to update or delete your personal information by contacting us.

We may update this privacy policy occasionally. Changes will be reflected on the page.

Orders with The Money Memo are handled using secure processes. If there is a need to update delivery details, someone from our team may contact you. Please note, we do not ask for personal payment information by email.

You can enable extra sign-in protection and use strong security to help keep you safe.

We regularly review our systems and follow best practices to help protect your information. If you notice anything unusual, it may be helpful to review your settings.

Transparency is our priority, and we’re happy to address any questions you might have.

How to Unsubscribe or Manage Your Preferences

We understand that everyone’s inbox is different. If you ever find our emails no longer relevant, there’s no hard feelings. You can easily manage your email preferences or unsubscribe using the link provided below.

By clicking the unsubscribe link, you’ll be taken to a page where you can either adjust your communication preferences (such as receiving fewer emails or only on specific topics) or completely remove yourself from our list. The process is straightforward, and any changes will take effect promptly.

We don’t use tricks or gimmicks to keep you subscribed. Our priority is to ensure that our emails add value to your day, and if they don’t, we respect your decision to part ways.

Legal Information

We comply with all applicable laws and regulations regarding email communication. This includes adhering to laws and maintaining the highest standards for consent-based communication. Your trust matters, and we work diligently to ensure every email you receive meets these requirements.

If you need further clarification on our compliance policies or legal obligations, please ask. Transparency and accountability are central to our communication strategy, and we’re happy to provide additional details if needed.

Contact Information

We strive to ensure all communication channels are open and readily available to you. Whether it’s a question, comment, or concern, our team is ready to assist.

For assistance, please contact our team via email by replying to this email.

A Final Note

Emails are one of the many ways we stay connected, but we understand they aren’t perfect for everyone. If there’s another way you’d prefer to communicate or stay updated, let us know. Whether it’s through social media, a direct call, or another channel, we’re open to finding the most effective way to share information with you.

We want to emphasize that our goal is never to disrupt or clutter your inbox. Every email sent is intended to provide value, and we genuinely appreciate your time and attention.

This footer was designed to ensure transparency, provide essential information, and give you full control over your communication preferences. We hope it meets your expectations, but if there’s anything you’d like to see improved, we’re always here to listen.

Best regards,
The Money Memo

This email may contain paid advertisements and affiliate links. Guardian Financial Publishing may receive compensation if you click a link or make a purchase.

The Money Memo is a publication of Guardian Financial Publishing (D/B/A) Stable Financial Publishing | Privacy Policy | Terms | Disclaimer

Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here

1013 Centre Road Suite 403-D
Wilmington, DE 19805, United States

Kamis, 06 Agustus 2026