Wall Street got a second opinion on inflation. |
And it liked what it saw. |
One day after consumer inflation cooled, businesses unexpectedly reported lower wholesale prices (PPI unexpectedly fell 0.3%) — a sign that the pipeline feeding future price increases may finally be easing. If companies stop paying more, they eventually have less reason to charge more. |
That gave investors another reason to believe the Fed can afford to be patient.
Strong earnings kept optimism alive. Softer inflation kept rate-hike fears in check. Even another day of fighting in the Middle East couldn't knock stocks off course. |
The market spent Wednesday buying that idea. |
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⚡ Closing Bell:
→ Dow Jones: ▲ +0.29% to 52,659.18 › Morgan Stanley’s earnings and continued strength in financials helped the blue-chip index post another modest gain.
→ S&P 500: ▲ +0.38% to 7,572.42 › A second straight cooler-than-expected inflation report kept the benchmark within 0.5% of its record high, reinforcing hopes the Fed can remain patient.
→ Nasdaq: ▲ +0.62% to 26,269.23 › The tech-heavy index climbed despite a 2% drop in semiconductor stocks, as investors favored software, communication services, and AI-related names over chipmakers.
→ Russell 2000: ▲ +0.39% to 2,976.26 › Small caps joined the rally as easing inflation and falling Treasury yields improved the outlook for rate-sensitive companies. |
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Macro Moves:
→ Producer Prices (PPI): ▼ -0.3% (June) › Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell for a second straight sign that inflation pressures are easing before they reach consumers, giving the Fed more room to stay patient.
→ 10-Year Treasury Yield: ▼ 4.55% › Long-term yields fell for a second straight session as softer inflation reduced expectations of another near-term rate hike.
→ 2-Year Treasury Yield: ▼ 4.14% › The policy-sensitive two-year yield dropped about 5 bps as traders further dialed back expectations for a July Fed hike following the cooler PPI report.
→ Dollar Index (DXY): ▼ 100.52 › The dollar weakened as cooling inflation reduced demand for tighter U.S. monetary policy.
→ Bitcoin: ▲ Around $65,000 › The world's largest cryptocurrency climbed to a three-week high as two straight days of softer U.S. inflation boosted hopes the Fed can stay patient, improving appetite for risk assets. |
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❗ Looking Ahead:
Inflation has done its part. |
Now AI has to do its own. |
TSMC reports earnings tomorrow, giving investors one of the clearest reads yet on global AI chip demand. |
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#TRUTH:
❗❗❗ ❝ The bamboo that bends is stronger than the oak that resists. ❞
~ Japanese Proverb |
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Bloomberg calls it "a dire shift of fortunes for America" and The Wall Street Journal calls it a "New World Order." Now, Dr. David Eifrig – a 40-year market veteran who traded through Black Monday and has recommended more than a dozen triple-digit winners – warns that you must make one of the most important financial decisions of your lifetime today.
He strongly recommends this ONE step to potentially secure your retirement. |
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The Gap Between Price and Belief. |
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SpaceX stock briefly fell below its $135 IPO price, touching a new all-time low just one month after becoming the largest public offering in history. Shares are now more than 40% below their post-IPO peak. |
Wall Street, however, hasn’t changed its mind. |
Twenty-seven of 31 analysts still rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, with an average price target of $242—roughly 80% above where it closed Wednesday. |
The disconnect comes down to one question. |
Is the market pricing today’s business—or tomorrow’s? |
Bulls argue SpaceX isn’t just a launch company. It owns rockets, Starlink, satellite-to-phone services, AI infrastructure, and eventually orbital data centers.
Bears point out that many of those opportunities still depend on Starship, which has yet to prove it can reliably fly, land, and scale. |
That question gets another test tomorrow night. |
SpaceX is scheduled to launch the 13th Starship test flight, one of the company’s most important milestones before commercial missions begin later this year. |
The stock has already voted. |
Now Starship gets a chance to.
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The IPO Starting Line. |
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Everyone assumed OpenAI would be the AI industry’s biggest public debut. |
Now Anthropic is trying to beat it to the bell. |
The Claude maker is reportedly meeting with investors ahead of a potential October IPO, putting it on track to become the first frontier AI lab to reach public markets. OpenAI, meanwhile, has reportedly pushed its IPO plans into 2027, while China’s DeepSeek is still preparing its own listing. |
Anthropic has become one of Silicon Valley’s fastest-growing companies, fueled by booming demand for coding assistants and enterprise AI tools. Its latest funding round valued the company at $965 billion—briefly making it more valuable than OpenAI. |
The bigger picture is hard to ignore. |
The AI race is no longer just about building the best model. |
It’s becoming a race to reach Wall Street first. |
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The Hunter Gets Hunted. |
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There was a time when PayPal was the company everyone was trying to catch. |
Now someone wants to buy it.
Shares jumped 17% after Reuters reported that Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have offered $60.50 per share, valuing the payments giant at more than $53 billion. |
The proposed deal comes after years of slowing growth and rising competition from Apple Pay, Block, Affirm, Klarna—and Stripe itself. |
Some investors aren’t convinced the offer will be enough.
Analyst Andrew Jeffrey called it a potential “low-ball” offer, while investor Michael Burry called the bid too low, arguing PayPal remains worth considerably more than the proposed price. |
The bigger story is how quickly fintech has changed. |
Buyouts usually happen for one reason. |
Someone thinks the market is underpricing the business.
Is the stock cheaper than the company?
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Gains & Pains: |
Gains:
➝ Lucid: ▲ +28.79% › Shares rebounded sharply after Tuesday’s panic selloff as investors bought the dip following the company’s denial of bankruptcy rumors. |
➝ ChronoScale Holdings: ▲ +28.77% › Extended its recent rally as investors continued piling into high-growth technology names. |
➝ Aehr Test Systems: ▲ +21.91% › Jumped after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly results and issuing upbeat guidance tied to continued AI semiconductor demand. |
➝ PayPal: ▲ +17.20% › Soared after Reuters reported that Stripe and Advent International made a joint takeover offer valuing the company at about $53 billion. |
➝ Maase Inc.: ▲ +17.43% › Shares surged on unusually heavy trading, though no major company-specific catalyst was announced. |
😬 Pains:
➝ Celcuity: ▼ -17.60% › Investors took profits following the recent rally as biotech stocks broadly underperformed the market. |
➝ Pentair: ▼ -15.00% › Fell after cutting its outlook and announcing an unexpected CFO departure, raising concerns about execution. |
➝ Universal Technical Institute: ▼ -13.55% › Shares pulled back following a strong recent run as traders locked in gains ahead of earnings. |
➝ Applied Optoelectronics: ▼ -13.04% › The AI networking supplier retreated as semiconductor-related names came under pressure despite another positive session for the broader market. |
➝ Covista: ▼ -12.33% › Declined on heavy volume with no material company announcement, suggesting broad profit-taking after recent gains.
🔥 Most Active: |
➝ PayPal: ▲ +17.20% › Dominated trading after Reuters revealed a buyout proposal from Stripe and Advent International. |
➝ Lucid: ▲ +28.79% › One of Wall Street’s busiest stocks as traders reversed Tuesday’s historic selloff. |
➝ Nvidia: ▲ +0.65% › Continued to attract heavy volume as investors positioned ahead of TSMC earnings and the next AI catalyst. |
➝ Nu Holdings: ▼ -0.79% › The digital bank remained among the market’s busiest names as investors continued rotating through fintech. |
➝ Opendoor: ▲ +4.40% › Homebuying shares traded actively as lower rate expectations improved sentiment toward housing-related stocks. |
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Escapes: |
Monument Valley Navajo Tribal Park📍 Utah 🇺🇸 |
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Commodities Check : ✔️ |
➝ WTI Crude: ▲ $79.60 (+0.33%) › Oil edged higher as traders weighed continued U.S.-Iran hostilities against signs that the conflict was already largely priced into the market. |
➝ Brent Crude: ▲ $84.95 (+0.26%) › Brent held near one-month highs as concerns over potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continued to support prices. |
➝ Gold: ▲ $4,059.01/oz (+0.13%) › Gold rose modestly as softer inflation data and lower Treasury yields offset pressure from elevated interest-rate expectations. |
➝ Corn: ▲ September futures +2.05% › Corn climbed to its highest level in six weeks as hot, dry Midwest weather raised concerns about crop yields. |
➝ Soybeans: ▲ August futures +0.90% › Soybeans rose after stronger-than-expected June U.S. soybean crush data signaled healthy demand, helping lift prices despite mostly steady cash bids. |
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The stinger: |
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Disclaimer |
This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills. |
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Disclaimer |
This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills. |
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice and is not based on any individual’s financial circumstances, goals, or risk tolerance. We are not registered investment, stock, or commodity advisors. Always consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. |
Information provided in this newsletter (and on any affiliated website) is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are those of the authors and are subject to change without notice. |
From time to time, this publication may include sponsored content, affiliate links, or advertisements. Such inclusions do not constitute endorsements, and any compensation received does not influence the analysis or opinions presented. TradingLessons is not affiliated with, nor does it verify or guarantee the claims, products, or services of any sponsor or advertiser. Readers should perform their own due diligence before engaging with any advertised offerings. |
Nothing herein should be interpreted as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy, sell, or trade any security, commodity, derivative, or other financial instrument. This content is intended solely to highlight market developments and educational insights to help readers enhance their understanding of trading and risk management.
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