 I’ve spent my career studying the gold cycles… For the past 20 years I've buried myself in my research... And what’s unfolding right now in the Persian Gulf is the end of a cycle that will affect the price of gold like nothing before it. Because Saudi Arabia just abruptly terminated a deal it made with the U.S. back in 1974... This deal single-handedly controlled the global financial system for the last 50 years. It was an agreement that Saudi Arabia would sell oil exclusively in U.S. dollars – forcing every country on Earth to hold U.S. Treasuries. That system has been the foundation of American financial dominance over the past five decades. There was virtually nothing reported about the end of this agreement... And at first, nothing changed. But now the consequences are becoming undeniable... Saudi Arabia signed a $7 billion currency swap with China… Began settling oil in digital yuan… And joined mBridge, China’s cross-border payment system. The war in Iran is driving Gulf nations to settle oil deals in yuan... And tankers are being forced to pay tolls for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in yuan, cryptocurrency, or basically any denomination that's not the U.S. dollar... At both ends of the Persian Gulf the dollar system is being dismantled... even replaced. This removal of massive global demand for dollars will rewrite the rules of global finance. Because if oil doesn’t require dollars, the world doesn’t need to hold them. And when demand for dollars falls… Demand for Treasuries falls with it. Yields on the US ten-year Treasury are pushing toward the 4.4% danger line — where the system starts to break down. Falling treasury demand → rising yields → Fed intervention → money printing → the loss of your purchasing power. That’s the sequence playing out today. As the dollar pulls back and countries step back from buying more US debt, gold has to reprice higher. A declining dollar is the single strongest driver of the gold price. But the best way to play the decline of the US dollar is not to buy physical gold… There's an alternative way to leverage gold's continued rise... Using an asset that still trades at an extreme discount relative to gold's current price. It's like buying gold for pennies on the dollar... Click here to learn more. To your wealth, Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Chief Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
Further Reading from MarketBeat.com
SpaceX Valuation Loses Altitude as AI Risks MountWritten by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Date Posted: 6/23/2026. 
Key Points
- SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere causes 3.4% shareholder dilution while diverting capital from core orbital launch operations.
- Starlink's average revenue per user compressed from $99 to $66 per month, undermining the primary source of SpaceX's positive free cash flow.
- A microscopic 5% public float, rising Treasury yields, and potential Tesla merger rumors are compounding downward pressure on SpaceX's premium valuation.
- Special Report: Sell these "safe" blue chips immediately
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is trading around $165, reflecting a 25% pullback from its post-IPO peak of $225. A historic public debut initially assigned SpaceX a peak market capitalization of $1.77 trillion, fueled by unwavering investor confidence in its perceived orbital monopoly. Equity markets are now aggressively digesting a structural shift in the core narrative. The Unproven AI Pivot Burns SpaceX Cash
SpaceX management is rapidly transforming the company from a pure-play aerospace sector titan into a sprawling, capital-intensive technology sector conglomerate. By diverting massive capital expenditures toward artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and using SpaceX equity to fund multibillion-dollar software acquisitions, leadership is fundamentally altering SpaceX's risk profile. The premium valuation previously awarded for orbital dominance is fracturing under the weight of escalating cash burn, macroeconomic headwinds, and a total reliance on a single, margin-compressed satellite unit. Black Hole Balance Sheet: The AI Cash DrainSpaceX's post-IPO price action illustrates a textbook repricing of capital-allocation risk. Days after raising $75 billion in the public markets, SpaceX executed a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of the coding platform Cursor. For investors, SpaceX's strategic decision to use inflated equity as currency to acquire a terrestrial software company will result in an immediate 3.4% dilution for SpaceX shareholders. Expanding the share count to fund non-core software operations, especially ahead of impending lock-up expirations, actively destroys shareholder value. This aggressive pivot toward artificial intelligence infrastructure requires substantial upfront capital expenditures. Developing data centers creates a severe cash drain that directly cannibalizes liquidity needed for SpaceX's core orbital logistics. A recently signed $6.3 billion agreement for computing power with open-source startup Reflection AI highlights this shift. While the deal guarantees SpaceX $150 million in monthly recurring revenue starting July 1, 2026, it requires granting Reflection AI access to NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) GB300 infrastructure at the SpaceX Colossus 2 data center. Building and maintaining outsized data centers to support external artificial intelligence clients diverts resources away from core SpaceX launch vehicle development. Colliding Orbits: The Tesla Merger ThreatInstitutional options positioning indicates the broader market is pricing in another major structural threat. Rumors suggest an impending, highly dilutive stock-swap merger involving Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TSLA) artificial intelligence and robotics divisions. The rumor suggests the possible absorption of Tesla's terrestrial electric vehicle operations and consumer robotics segment, forcing a total re-rating of the SpaceX business model. Aerospace investors typically pay a massive premium for pure-play monopolies. By blending aerospace logistics with auto manufacturing, artificial intelligence, robotics, and software development, SpaceX invites a substantial conglomerate discount. Complex, multi-industry holding companies historically trade at lower multiples than specialized peers because capital is often misallocated across underperforming divisions. SpaceX currently trades at roughly 29 times estimated 2027 sales and 71 times enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). An EBITDA multiple of 71x requires absolute operational perfection. A conglomerate structure leaves SpaceX no room for operational friction. Starlink Margins Fall Back to Earth FastA fundamental disconnect between the underlying launch segment and the profitable Starlink satellite unit presents immense systemic risk for SpaceX. Core launch operations function largely as a break-even entity designed to facilitate orbital deployment. SpaceX relies almost entirely on Starlink for positive free cash flow. While Starlink subscriber counts continue to climb, aggressive expansion into emerging markets is driving persistent compression in average revenue per user. Average revenue per user dropped from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 per month in the first quarter of 2026. Launching and maintaining a low-earth-orbit satellite costs SpaceX the same regardless of whether the end user pays high-tier enterprise rates in North America or heavily subsidized rates in emerging markets. Failing to stabilize these unit economics while simultaneously expanding massive data centers threatens the SpaceX balance sheet. A $20 billion senior unsecured notes offering is currently underway, serving as a stark reminder of the leverage SpaceX needs to operate. The bond market absorbed the debt comfortably due to investment-grade ratings from S&P Global and Moody's, allowing SpaceX to refinance legacy 12.5% junk bonds with manageable 4.58% debt. Equity investors are looking further down the road. Financial modeling from Oppenheimer projects SpaceX's net debt could balloon from roughly $13 billion to over $400 billion by 2031 to sustain continuous orbital deployment and massive data center builds. Micro Float Meets Macro Gravity for SpaceXBroader macroeconomic forces are accelerating the SpaceX sell-off. A hawkish pivot at the recent Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh has driven U.S. Treasury yields higher. Rising yields mechanically punish long-duration, high-multiple growth equities like SpaceX by heavily discounting future cash flows. These macroeconomic headwinds are amplified by extreme artificial scarcity in the secondary market. Only 5% of SpaceX's outstanding shares are currently traded in the public float, creating severe supply-and-demand imbalances. This microscopic float generated record-breaking derivatives volume, with 1.8 million single-name options contracts exchanging hands for $2.8 billion in premium during the first trading session alone. Heavy institutional anchoring at the $200 strike currently acts as a defensive ceiling for SpaceX. Asset managers are heavily capitalizing on this downward momentum, launching inverse products like the Leverage Shares 2x Short SPCX Daily ETF (NYSEARCA: SSPC) to directly fade the SpaceX premium multiple. Safe Landings in the Commercial Space SectorThe commercial space sector continues to benefit from strong secular tailwinds, driven by sustained government defense spending and private infrastructure demand. SpaceX simply has an equity valuation that appears to severely misprice its impending capital expenditure trajectory and upcoming equity dilution. Investors may want to consider rotating capital from premium-priced megacaps with unproven AI ventures into fundamentally sound aerospace pure-plays. Risk-averse market participants may favor a space-focused ETF such as the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO). For SpaceX, higher-risk investors should await the late 2026 lock-up expirations to allow improved float liquidity before establishing long-term positions. . |
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