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Bitcoin climbed back above $62,700 as softer payrolls, lower oil prices and renewed ETF inflows revived risk appetite. The Dow closed above 53,000 for the first time. Strategy faces growing pressure after authorizing bitcoin sales, while Iran's oil recovery is running into weaker Chinese demand. |
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MARKET PULSE |
Markets began the week with risk appetite returning. |
The Dow gained 156 points to close above 53,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 added 0.72%. The Nasdaq rose 1.12% as semiconductor stocks rebounded after two difficult weeks. |
Technology led again. |
The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF climbed nearly 2%. Western Digital (WDC) jumped 7%. Teradyne (TER) gained 2.8%. Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose nearly 2%. Oracle (ORCL) added 2.5%. |
The backdrop also improved. |
June payrolls increased just 57,000, reducing fears of another near-term Fed hike. Oil remained below $69, helping ease inflation concerns across markets. |
The Signal |
Markets spent the first half of June pricing higher rates. They begin July pricing patience instead. |
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Oil has returned to pre-war territory. |
Brent remains near $72 while WTI trades below $69 as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues normalizing and OPEC+ prepares another 188,000 barrel per day production increase for August. |
The supply picture keeps changing. |
Iran has exported more than 40 million barrels since restrictions eased, but clearing those inventories may become more difficult. |
China is no longer absorbing crude the way it did earlier in the year. |
Chinese crude imports fell 29% year over year in May to 7.82 million barrels per day, while Iranian shipments reportedly dropped to roughly 654,000 barrels per day during June. Russian exports also remain elevated. |
The result is simple. |
Supply keeps increasing while demand is becoming less certain. |
Energy Signal |
The war premium has disappeared. The next question is whether growing supply pushes oil even lower. |
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The labor market finally shifted the conversation. |
June payrolls increased just 57,000, while April and May were revised lower by another 74,000 jobs. Markets immediately reduced expectations for another Fed hike. |
Now attention shifts to Wednesday. |
The FOMC minutes will reveal how policymakers viewed inflation before the labor market softened. Investors will also watch whether officials discussed growing downside risks to employment. |
Gold reflects the same debate. |
Spot gold remains near two-week highs despite a stronger dollar. Markets now see roughly a 56% chance of a September hike, while JPMorgan expects gold to reach about $4,300 during the third quarter. |
Macro Signal |
Payrolls changed expectations. The FOMC minutes will determine whether the Fed changed with them. |
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The AI trade keeps separating winners from laggards. |
Microsoft announced another 4,800 job cuts, equal to roughly 2.1% of its workforce. About 3,200 positions come from Xbox as the company restructures its gaming business and prepares several studio divestitures. |
The announcement reflects a broader shift. |
Technology companies are becoming more disciplined after years of aggressive hiring and AI spending. |
Meanwhile, consolidation continues elsewhere. |
EasyJet surged more than 10% after agreeing in principle to a £5.5 billion takeover proposal from private equity firm Castlelake. The offer highlights continued interest in transportation assets despite higher fuel costs. |
Tomorrow also brings one of the year's largest index events as SpaceX (SPCX) officially joins the Nasdaq 100. |
Capital Signal |
AI spending continues. Cost discipline has returned. Markets now reward companies that can do both. |
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Bitcoin climbed back above $62,700 after recovering from last week's lows near $58,300. |
Three forces drove the rebound. |
The weaker payrolls report reduced rate fears. Oil prices stayed below $69, easing inflation pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded more than $220 million of net inflows, ending a ten-day streak of withdrawals after more than $4.5 billion left the products during June. |
The recovery also changes the technical picture. |
Bitcoin is testing resistance near $64,000. Above that, analysts point toward $67,600 and $70,500. Initial support now sits between roughly $62,500 and $62,800. |
The larger structural story remains Strategy (MSTR). |
The company's bitcoin acquisition model depends on trading above the value of its bitcoin holdings. That premium has largely disappeared. Strategy recently authorized up to $1.25 billion of bitcoin sales after selling 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million last week to strengthen its balance sheet. |
The market is beginning to ask whether the biggest corporate bitcoin buyer can continue expanding without relying on asset sales. |
Another legal battle is also developing. |
CME Group challenged the CFTC's approval of regulated perpetual futures listed by Coinbase and Kalshi. The lawsuit could influence how U.S. regulators treat perpetual crypto products for years to come. |
The Verdict |
Bitcoin finally regained momentum. ETF inflows returned. Strategy's financing model is becoming the market's biggest company specific crypto risk. |
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The market entered July expecting one story. |
A softer labor market. |
It got one. |
That shifted attention away from inflation and back toward growth. Oil has returned to pre-war levels. Bitcoin has recovered above $62,000. Stocks continue setting records. |
The next phase is more complicated. |
Wednesday's FOMC minutes test the Fed's reaction. SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100. Strategy faces new questions about its capital model. Iran must find buyers for rising oil exports just as global supply expands. |
The first half of the year rewarded companies that spent aggressively. |
The second half may reward companies that prove those investments can produce returns. |
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