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Trump Gives Iran 48 Hours |
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Dear reader, |
The president, this past Saturday evening: |
If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter. |
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The president's deadline — and here the term assumes a poignancy — terminates this evening. |
Thus the countdown, as is said, is on. |
Yet what is this? Early this morning the president granted Iran an extension: |
I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! |
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Iran denies that any negotiations have in fact transpired. |
Its state media claims President Trump "retreated" from his deadline "out of fear of Iran's response." |
I hazard there is justice here. United States regional allies likely requested that the president withdraw his menacing threat. |
Don't Expect Iran to Cave |
Yet assume the president renews his threats. |
Will Iran's government sink to both knees… bow its head… and yield to the American president's demands? |
I cannot envision a scenario in which it would. |
Plucky Iran has gotten its back up plenty high and plenty stiff since the American/Israeli onslaught commenced on Feb. 28. |
Each blow Iran absorbed, it has delivered a counterblow — against United States military installations in the region, against neighboring states, against Israel. |
And I hazard it is prepared to deliver another should the president carry through. |
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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf thunders that: |
Immediately after the targeting of power plants and infrastructure in our country, vital infrastructure and energy and oil facilities across the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed irreversibly, and oil prices will rise for a long time. |
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Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari added that: |
If Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy infrastructure, as well as information technology… and water desalination facilities, belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted pursuant to previous warnings. |
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Iran May Bluster, but It Still Packs a Punch |
Like most nations at war, Iran likes to pound its pectoral muscles and gloat about its martial formidability. |
Yet I am not convinced Iran wields the might to waylay all the region's energy infrastructure, information technology and water desalination facilities, as threatened. |
Consider, for example, desalination facilities. I understand the Gulf states maintain and operate some 3,400 desalination plants. |
How many can Iran knock off line, realistically? |
I hazard that Iran nonetheless maintains adequate oomph to besiege much of the region's energy infrastructure. |
And if the United States assaults Iran's power plants, I believe the Iranian counterblow would prove… robust. |
We're Bombing You for Your Own Good! |
Meantime, if the joint American/Israeli onslaught is intended to liberate Iran's tyrannized masses from its hell-sent regime… I cannot envision how consigning them to electricless darkness will endear us to them. |
'We're here to liberate you. Now rise up out of the immiserating darkness we imposed upon you, with all its privations, and claim your freedom!' |
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Is this the royal road to winning hearts and minds? |
Decades after the Vietnam War, United States Defense Secretary McNamara met personally with Vietnam's General Giap, his North Vietnamese rough equivalent. |
The American explained to the Vietnamese that United States bombing of the North was intended to deliver a "message," to compel them to the negotiating table. |
The Vietnamese Giap simply responded that they knew nothing about any "message." He knew merely that the United States was bombing his country — and that was that. |
I wonder if the Iranian people are "getting the message" the United States government is telegraphing them. |
Yet my agents inform me that Iran's power grid is very extensively decentralized. And Iran's largest power plant — the power plant the president pledged to obliterate first — puts out a mere 3% or Iranian electricity. |
Thus any assaults upon Iran's power plants may prove less electric than the president intends. |
Up the Escalation Ladder We Go |
Regardless, this weekend witnessed a potentially frightful escalation of the conflict. |
It appears the United States or Israel — likely Israel — conducted an aerial assault upon Iran's nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. |
Meantime, a projectile of unknown origin came thudding down within perhaps 1,000 feet of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant this weekend. |
A direct hit, depending upon the ordnance employed, could potentially release lethal radioactivity into the waiting atmosphere. |
Given the region's prevailing winds at this time of year, that radioactivity may potentially waft its way through to China. |
You can be assured China would not welcome the visitation. They would have something very strong to say. |
Iran retaliated — officially in response to the Natanz assault — by heaving missiles very close to Israel's nuclear facility at Dimona. |
Israel admits to some 180 civilian casualties in the surrounding area. |
And so the two nations are trading very serious barbs. |
Nuclear War Is Uncomfortably Possible |
What if, next time, Iran strikes directly at Israel's Dimona nuclear facility? What if the result is a potent radiation release? |
Does Israel retaliate with nuclear weaponry? |
I do not know the answer. Yet does anybody know the answer — save the Israeli government? |
How might a pulverized and irradiated Iran possibly retaliate? |
Dr. Theodore Postol is professor emeritus of science, technology, and international security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. |
His answer is that Iran may retaliate with its own nuclear weapons, hastily developed: |
My concern is that [Israel] will resort to using a nuclear weapon against Iran. And if that happens, Iran will respond whether or not they now have nuclear weapons. It may take a few weeks [to develop], but they will have a nuclear weapon, and they will respond… I hope the US has control over the Israelis like they say that they do. |
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As do I, Dr. Postol… as do I. |
Toying With Matches |
Alas, Iran and Israel are toying with matches — nuclear matches. And the longer two parties toy with nuclear matches… the likelier the nuclear fire. |
I do not yell wolf to attract notice — I do not yell wolf at all. |
I am far too private a fellow. |
Yet this humble scribbler requests, humbly, that Israel and Iran dismount the nuclear escalation ladder at once. |
Else, we confront a potential fire the world has not witnessed since August 9, 1945. |
And no fire department on Earth is equipped to extinguish that fire. |
Brian Maher |
for Freedom Financial News |
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