October 04, 2026 | Read online

The Week Ahead - October 4th

Rates are going up up up

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Rates did not care at all about Friday’s light jobs numbers and while we ended the day up well, we cooled off as rates shot back up to where they were Thursday night. What’s notable about these jobs numbers is that we’re seeing continued losses in information, finance, and professional & business services sectors like advertising, accounting, legal services, etc. Increases are driven by healthcare, education, and construction; pointing to some actual AI related losses behind the surface?

Back to rates, the move in long-dated treasuries (and bonds worldwide) is pretty concerning; as higher cost of capital has generally preceded periods of economic slowdown → your new car loan, home loan, etc all go higher. That would be bearish everything.

But there’s a different side of the coin that we think is playing out so far. The fact that demand for AI is insatiable. And that it’s crowding out investment into other areas of the economy. What if the ROIC on AI is so high that it can withstand a rising cost of capital?

The situation → if rates go even higher, we think its tails/tails, or lose/lose on anything that is not rapidly growing AI. Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

Tuesday: Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston, RPM International
Wednesday: Applied Digital, Levi Strauss & Co.
Thursday: Pepsico, Tilray Brands
Friday: Delta Air Lines

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

Monday: FRB New York President John Williams begins two-day regional visit to Western New York
Tuesday: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Px Index (89), Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (7.2M), Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks at Detroit Economic Club
Wednesday: ADP National Employment Report (68,000), 3rd estimate GDP (1.5%), Advance U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Wholesale Inventories, Retail Inventories, Personal Income M/M% (0.4%), Consumer Spending M/M% (0.8%), PCE Price Idx M/M% (0.3%), PCE Price Idx Y/Y% (3.7%), PCE Core Price Idx M/M% (0.3%), PCE Core Price Idx Y/Y% (3.3%), Chicago Business Barometer ISM-Chicago Business Survey Chicago PMI (52)
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (200K), US Manufacturing PMI (57), ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI (54.9), Construction Spending (0.1%)
Friday: Employment Report (84K), Unemployment Rate (4.1%), Avg Hourly Earnings M/M% (0.3%), Avg Hourly Earnings Y/Y% (3.1%), Factory Orders (0.2%)

Golub Capital chose F2 to power its next $100B in assets.

Golub Capital is putting AI at the center of its next chapter. Its investment builds on its purchase and firmwide rollout of F2, aiming to secure a strategic advantage in agentic solutions for direct lending.

The partnership reflects three priorities for global credit:

Purpose-built AI: F2’s operating system handles the complex workflows of private markets and global credit.
AI sovereignty: F2’s adaptive, model-agnostic harness accesses the latest frontier and open-source models while protecting proprietary data through zero data retention and zero model training.
Unlocking trapped knowledge: F2’s top-bucket deal agent, Adam, acts as a senior MD from day one. He draws on precedent deals and captures future decisions, keeping the firm’s deal history in persistent, proprietary context.

Golub Capital’s investment and rollout mark a turning point for how large firms deploy agentic AI across sensitive, proprietary workflows.

Schedule a Demo with the F2 Team

On The Move 📈 📉

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 4.65% ) jumped after a surprise Q3 delivery beat, with 486,532 vehicles delivered versus the 461,974 analysts expected.
Seagate $STX ( ▼ 10.21% ) and Western Digital $WDC ( ▼ 10.22% ) tumbled after a report that Toshiba plans to double its data center hard drive capacity in fiscal 2027, raising the threat of a third major supplier.
Space stocks $SPCX ( ▲ 7.36% ) , $PL ( ▲ 8.43% ) , $RKLB ( ▲ 4.47% ) , and $LUNR ( ▲ 4.7% ) rose after a SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare mission deployed two Unseenlabs satellites, boosting sentiment around launch demand.
Accenture $ACN ( ▼ 6.31% ) fell following a slashed full-year revenue outlook, a decline in new bookings, and mounting market fears that agentic and generative AI will automate IT services.
Nike $NKE ( ▼ 3.64% ) continued to slip after Thursday’s Q1 revenue miss and weak FY27 outlook. The stock has now lost nearly half its value this year.
MaxLinear $MXL ( ▲ 14.99% ) soared ahead of its Q3 earnings, which it expects to show revenue growth of up to 75% on strong AI data center demand.

IPO Roundup 📍

Nscale hired longtime Meta executive Justin Osofsky as COO ahead of its IPO, which could raise up to $3B.
Firmus Grid priced its Australian IPO at A$11 a share to raise at least A$5B. The Nvidia-backed data center operator is set to debut Oct. 23.
NorthStar Earth & Space $NSTR ( 0.0% ) , the Montreal-based space surveillance provider, fell 45% in its NYSE debut after merging with SPAC Viking Acquisition Corp.
Mynt priced its Philippine IPO to raise ~$844M at a ~$7B valuation. The Ant-backed operator of mobile wallet GCash, which has 94M users, is set to list Oct. 20.

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿

Iran latest: Tehran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until its conditions for ending the war are met. At least two vessels were struck in the region over the weekend, as the U.S. reportedly sends a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East.
President Trump has named Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton as his new AI Czar. Clayton will lead a “Super Intelligence Force” that includes FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson and Emil Michael.
Micron is bullish physical AI, saying that self-driving cars and humanoid robots, could become a significant driver of memory and storage demand by the end of the decade, as the company reported Q4 EPS of $33.42 (+1,002% YoY) and revenue of $54.23Bn (+379% YoY).
Broadcom is gathering $60Bn of AI chip financing for Anthropic and other customers, including a $42Bn Class A senior-secured tranche led by Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley, which Broadcom is backstopping through residual value support.
Amazon signed a $1Bn multiyear agreement with Synopsys to expand its access to chip-design software, application-specific chip technology, and simulation tools for AWS’s in-house processors.
- Amazon is also in talks to move $8Bn of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a special purpose vehicle that would sell debt to outside investors, buy the chips, and lease them back to Amazon, protecting Amazon’s credit rating as long-term debt climbs to $119.1Bn.
KKR, Blackstone, and Warburg Pincus are weighing bids for European windshield-repair company Cary at €3 billion ($3.4 billion) or more, with Jefferies advising owners CVC Capital Partners and Nordic Capital.
Jeweler Mejuri has been forced to overhaul its business as gold prices climbed past $5,000/oz and became extremely volatile, with 42 sessions this year featuring triple-digit swings.
Oaktree closed its first asset-backed finance fund at $2B, hitting its target. Investors included U.S. public pension plans and sovereign wealth funds.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the AI industry must own its risks and find solutions. When asked about AI executives’ calls for regulation, Bessent said, “Well, then they should slow down.”
ON Semiconductor amended its deal to acquire Synaptics from a June stock deal at 1.35 ON shares per Synaptics share (~$7Bn) to $123 per share in cash (~$5.7Bn), following a rival offer for Synaptics.
Anthropic launched a $100M academy to tackle the enterprise AI talent gap. It aims to train 10,000 engineers by the end of 2027, starting with teams from Accenture, Bain, Deloitte, McKinsey, and Morgan Stanley.
Bridgewater CEO Nir Bar Dea warns AI could dislocate 18% of American labor. He said: “So think about the magnitude of the societal breakdown that could happen.”
Morgan Stanley expects tokenized real-world assets to grow from about $40B today to $2.3T by 2030. Most of that will be tied to collateral mobility and treasury management.
Tom Cruise’s $160M+ “Digger” opened to $8M, his lowest debut in 19 years. Amazon MGM’s Colleen Hoover adaptation “Verity” took No.1 with $32M+.

M&A Transactions💭

Vi.Pa., manufacturer of PVC compounds, was acquired for EUR 143.5M by Hexpol (STO: HPOL B).

Taco Comfort Solutions, manufacturer of hydronic and water-driven products, was acquired for $1.4B by Pentair (NYS: PNR). EV/Revenue was 2.59x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Pophouse Entertainment Group has reached a definitive agreement to acquire A 50% Stake in Sia’s Music Catalogue for $180.0M.

Schroders, an active asset manager, was acquired for GBP 9.9B by Nuveen. EV/EBITDA was 9.59x and EV/Revenue was 2.82x. Barclays and BNP Paribas advised on the sale.

Quadvest, operator of water and wastewater utility services, was acquired for $540.0M by H2O America (NAS: HTO).

National Fuel Gas Distribution of Ohio, distributor of natural gas, was acquired for $2.62B by CenterPoint Energy (NYS: CNP). Guggenheim Partners and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Metrocentre, operator of a shopping and leisure destination center, was acquired for GBP 516.0M by Landsec.

Maverick Power, manufacturer of power distribution equipment, was acquired for $2.3B by nVent Electric (NYS: NVT). The company will receive a contingent payout of $550.0M based on achieving certain performance metrics in 2027 and 2028. EV/EBIDTA was 15.33x and EV/Revenue was 3.29x. Barclays advised on the sale.

IPS Group, developer of smart parking and mobility technology, was acquired for $350.0M by Nayax (TAE: NYAX). EV/EBIDTA was 16.67x and EV/Revenue was 3.89x. Harris Williams advised on the sale.

I-MED Radiology Network, operator of a chain of medical clinics, was acquired for AUD 3.4B by Jardine Matheson. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Eurofins MET Labs, provider of laboratory testing and certification services, was acquired for EUR 575.0M by UL Solutions (NYS: ULS). EV/Revenue was 3.31x.

The Public Transit Business of Conduent (NAS: CNDT) was acquired for $164.0M by Modaxo. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Centor, manufacturer of prescription packaging products, was acquired for $1.71B by Apax Partners. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Beis, operator of an on-the-go lifestyle brand, was acquired for $178.5M by Samsonite Group (HKG: 01910). Raymond James advised on the sale.

Arize, developer of an observability platform, was acquired for $920.0M by Dynatrace (NYS: DT). Qatalyst Partners advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭

Armadin, developer of a cybersecurity platform, raised $255.5M of Series B venture funding led by Accel and Andreessen Horowitz.

ForFarmers Polska, operator of a poultry production, slaughtering, and food processing business, was formed as a joint venture between ForFarmers (AMS: FFARM) and KPS Food for PLN 2.192B.

Homeward, operator of a home-buying company, raised $450.0M of Series D venture funding. The equity portion of $120.0M was led by Saluda Grade. The transaction was supported by $330.0M of debt.

Restructuring Updates💭

Leslie’s — Type: Chapter 11. Debt: ~$1.21B total liabilities. What happened: The pool-supply retailer filed Sept. 30 with a prearranged restructuring supported by more than 80% of lenders. The plan would eliminate ~$685M of funded debt, raise $150M of new capital and close 76 of its 900+ stores.

Andrade Gutierrez Engenharia — Type: Chapter 15. Debt: ~$555M being restructured. What happened: The Brazilian construction and engineering group filed Sept. 30 in New York seeking U.S. recognition of its Brazilian restructuring plan covering nearly $555M of debt.

TSI Tower Services — Type: Chapter 11. Debt: $10M–$50M liabilities. What happened: The wireless infrastructure contractor filed Oct. 1 in Arizona, reporting $1M–$10M of assets and indicating that funds should be available for unsecured creditors.

Restructuring Rumor💭

JELD-WEN — Type: Out-of-court restructuring. Debt: ~$1.25B total debt. What happened: Reached a deal with major creditors to push 2027–2028 maturities to 2031 and raise $135M of new financing, addressing near-term liquidity and refinancing pressure.

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