You Will Survive the 2025 Trade War Jason Bodner, Editor, Quantum Edge Pro Believe it or not, I saw a T-shirt for sale that said, “I survived the 2025 trade war.” The shirt listed it as lasting one day – Feb. 3 – which is when President Donald Trump paused tariffs against Mexico and Canada for 30 days. It was a funny joke two months ago… But it hasn’t aged well. I wrote most of this essay on Tuesday, April 8, and the stock market wipeout of the last week has been anything but funny. And the same questions are on every investor’s mind… When will this end? And when will we recover? As always, I turn to data for answers. And what the data clearly shows is that the recent selling was exceptionally rare. And that it ultimately sets us up for longer-term gains. Recommended Link | | | | After President Trump's bombshell tariff announcement, millions of folks saw their wealth erased overnight. But Louis Navellier warns that the real threat to American livelihoods has nothing to do with tariffs – and could leave folks in danger long after the panic subsides. Click here to learn how to prepare for challenging conditions. |  | |
Last Week Was Historically Bad Last week’s tariff announcement was clearly a bombshell for investors. I liken it to ripping off a Band-Aid and taking multiple layers of skin with it. Thursday and Friday brought manic selling, the kind of unloading that even those of us who have been doing this a long time haven’t seen very often. The S&P 500 lost a staggering 10.5% in just those two trading days. That’s practically unheard of. In fact, it happened just five prior times going all the way back to 1950 – just 0.03% of all trading days. You can’t get much rarer than that. In those five instances, the S&P 500 was higher three times in the following five trading days – a little better than a flip of a coin. But here’s the key: The S&P 500 was higher every single time six months, nine months, one year, and two years later. And not just a little higher, either. Average gains ranged from 16% at six months to 32% after a year and 52% two years later. 
Stocks have a perfect record of bouncing back after extreme selling. It stretches the rubber band so much that it must snap back. Big Money Bailed on Stocks With Everyone Else My career as a trader gave me a front-row seat to how big institutions buy and sell stocks. What I learned is that these institutions take great pains to keep their moves secret. I spent years matching up buyers and sellers from the biggest firms on the planet, so I know how to spot the footprints and track Big Money inflows and outflows. I wrote the algorithms to identify these hidden signals of institutional buying into my Quantum Edge system, and they are exceptionally helpful in analyzing the market and finding stocks with the highest probability of profits. I may not know who specifically is buying what, but after every single trading day I can see which stocks were bought and sold by the big guns that run billions of dollars and account for 70% to 90% of daily trading volume. Let me give you a peek inside my system so you can see what Big Money was doing last Thursday and Friday. It won’t surprise you. Thursday registered an enormous number of Big Money sell signals (the red bars below) at 606. Friday shot up to an immense and rarer 946 sell signals. Those were the biggest selling days since COVID in March 2020. The peak day then was March 12, with 1,198 Big Money sell signals. 
Source: MAPsignals.com Those are big numbers by themselves, but important context illustrates just how unusual they were. The average Big Money sell signals per day since 1990 is just 36.8 per day. Thursday was 16.5 times the 34-year average, and Friday was 25.7 times more than usual. I dug into the data to find all the days matching or exceeding last Thursday’s 606 sell signals. Once again, that kind of selling proved extremely rare. I found only 19 instances of such days prior to Thursday. In other words, 99.8% of all days the last 35 years were better. This data again shows volatility often continues for a few days or even a few months, but the probability of higher prices increases over time. The S&P 500 was higher two years later in every instance, with an average return of 42.8%. The Best Move Now, Even if It Doesn’t Feel Like It Trump is forcing the world to negotiate, and while I could quarrel with his execution, I believe deals will be made. If tariffs settle lower than expected, the market could snap back breathtakingly fast. We saw a hint of this yesterday when stocks flew higher in a very short time after Trump announced that tariffs would be delayed by 90 days. The data is clear: Extreme selling is rare and unsustainable. These thankfully infrequent episodes feel like they are never going to end, but they always do. History is firmly on our side. I expect volatility will stick around at least a little bit longer as negotiations play out – and that would be consistent with both stock market data and Big Money data. If you’re a longer-term investor and already own quality stocks, I think you’ll see those stocks bounce further, faster, and longer than the market. These are stocks with superior fundamentals, strong technicals, and Big Money inflows. That’s how my system has beaten the S&P 500 7-to-1 going back to 1990. The technicals and Big Money inflows are down across the board right now, but this produces what I call a divergence opportunity. When we get weak technicals and sell signals in quality stocks with beefy fundamentals, odds are quite high those stocks will move significantly higher in the coming months and years. Some are trading now at mouthwatering discounts. It may not feel like it, but investors with cash to deploy and a longer-term horizon can pounce on excellent buying opportunities. If you’d rather wait for more clarity on trade policy, I think that’s fine, too. I suspect you’ll still have attractive bargains to grab, even after yesterday’s rally. If you don’t have cash to invest but participate in your company’s 401(k) plan, take comfort in knowing you are doing the right thing – buying more shares at lower prices with your ongoing contributions. Stocks are still volatile, and there may be more volatility to come amid ongoing tariff negotiations. That’s why, in addition to other factors, you should pay close attention to TradeSmith’s indicators. They are very helpful. From what I see in my own data, I am supremely confident that the best stocks in the market will trade at much higher prices a year from now. In fact, I would not be surprised if the stocks investors buy during these bumpy times are among their biggest winners in 2026. Play it smart, and we can buy an “I survived the 2025 sell-off” T-shirt. Not just survived but thrived. And that’s no joke. Talk soon, 
Jason Bodner
Editor, Quantum Edge Pro | 
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