| Swan Dive — April 30, 2025 Sell in May… and Pray? Addison Wiggin An ol’ timers’ maxim looms over the recent bounce in US stocks: Sell in May and go away. It’s one of the most enduring seasonal strategies in financial history, and for good reason.
According to Bespoke Investment Group, an investor who stayed in the S&P 500 only from May to October since 1993 would’ve earned a cumulative return of 171%—compared to 731% for the more lucrative November to April stretch.
The pattern held last from November 2023 to October 2024. But this year?
Seasonality is just one variable in a stew of uncertainty. Investors are crunching data to gauge what happens next, even as once-reliable indicators have been scrambled by the unpredictability of President Trump’s tariff blitz.
Taken alone, the adage would argue against chasing the current 12% rebound off April’s lows—especially with the index still down 5.5% year-to-date.  “The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’ this year,” says Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey, warning the S&P 500 could take another leg down. The calendar might be whispering caution… but the headlines are still muddling through tariffs. 🧾 Amazon’s Tariff Tag Turns into a Political Punchline After Punchbowl News reported that Amazon planned to show tariff surcharges at checkout, it looked like the White House was ready to start doing its shopping at Sears. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt blasted the move as “a hostile and political act.”
But after Trump reportedly phoned Jeff Bezos directly, Amazon clarified that it had considered displaying tariff fees—on its bargain-basement Haul site, not the main platform—and ultimately scrapped the idea. Tariffs remain a minefield: Chinese retailers like Temu have started disclosing their price hikes openly.
Niche U.S. brands are joining in too—Dame now adds a $5 “Trump Tariff Surcharge” to sex toys, Jolie Skin Co. is coding a “Trump Liberation Tariff” into its checkout flow, and electronics maker Crestron has slapped a 12% fee on customers.
Transparency or political theater? Either way, tariffs are showing up on receipts, whether retailers admit it or not.
 Many have 5-star ratings.
Most are "buys" per Wall Street.
But they're dead companies.
Click here to see the full list.
📉 Consumer Confidence Collapses to COVID-Era Lows Not since the darkest days of the pandemic have U.S. consumers been this gloomy. The latest Conference Board data shows consumer confidence falling nearly eight points last month—its lowest level since May 2020.  More troubling, the expectations index—which tracks how Americans see the economy six months from now—hasn’t been this low in over 13 years. April’s reading came in under 80 – a level that historically foreshadows recession. 👔 Despite the Whining, Layoffs Fall, Quits Rise Despite all the moaning and macro hand-wringing, the U.S. labor market just delivered a surprise flex.
According to Wolf Richter at Wol Street, March layoffs and discharges dropped by 222,000 to 1.56 million — the lowest since November 2023. Private sector strength drove the decline, even as government layoffs jumped. Meanwhile, voluntary quits ticked up, signaling that workers still feel confident enough to chase better offers. The three-month average of layoffs also fell to its lowest since last August.
The bottom line is that behind the headlines, the private sector job market is quietly holding strong. That’s a sharp contrast to the Biden-era data mirage that was intended to project a strong economy. 🚗 Trump Bends on Auto Tariffs Just as companies braced for more cost pain, the White House offered a partial reprieve—this time, for automakers.
Before wisping off to a Michigan victory speech, Trump signed an executive order allowing car manufacturers to earn back part of the 25% tariffs they’ve been paying on foreign-made components. The order also spares them from overlapping levies on steel and aluminum.
That might soothe Detroit's nerves, but it wasn’t enough to stop GM from yanking its 2025 forecast entirely earlier in the day. As with Amazon, the tariff deals going on behind the scenes are rife with cutouts, as was the case in Trump Trade War 1.0. 📦📦🥤💊 Big Brands Take Tariffs on the Chin Tariffs may be hammering Main Street, but the giants aren’t flinching — at least not yet.
Coca-Cola beat estimates and brushed off trade headwinds as “manageable,” even raising its 2025 growth targets. Pfizer shrugged off a $150 million tariff hit, leaned on AI to promise $7.7 billion in cost cuts, and still crushed earnings.
UPS? It’s feeling the squeeze more directly, cutting 20,000 jobs after cutting ties with Amazon. But it still posted a beat and blamed macro uncertainty for the silence on guidance. Message from the top: tariffs are annoying — not fatal. 💊Hims & Hers Gets Its Own, um, Boost Just months ago, the FDA yanked Wegovy’s “shortage” designation, effectively banning Hims & Hers from selling its compounded knockoff.
Then, yesterday, in a suss move, the online retailer best known of its male intimacy social media campaigns caught a lifeline—from the very pharma giant that tried to crush it.
Novo Nordisk, maker of the red-hot GLP-1 drug Wegovy, inked a deal with telehealth firms like Hims, Ro, and LifeMD to sell the weight-loss shot directly to consumers at nearly half the original list price.
Hims shot up 40% on the news before settling for 23%. LifeMD held on for a 42% gain. 🇻🇳 U.S. Skips Vietnam War Anniversary Today marks 50 years since the fall of Saigon—now Ho Chi Minh City—ending America’s most bitter war abroad. But unlike past anniversaries, U.S. officials were conspicuously absent from the public ceremonies.
Organizers confirmed Washington had declined invitations to receptions and military parades, even as 20 other nations, including China, showed up in force. Vietnam says its “comprehensive strategic partnership” with the U.S. remains intact, but to locals, the no-show registered as a quiet slap.
“Each country has its own thinking,” said one 74-year-old war vet, “but this is still our day to celebrate.” And consider a big beautiful trade agreement with their old foe. 📚 Vatican Tops Global Finance Ratios Which country has the most CFA Charterholders and Bloomberg Terminals per capita?
Nope, not Luxembourg. It’s Vatican City.
With just 882 residents, the Holy See boasts four CFA Charterholders, giving it a per capita lead over the Cayman Islands. It also hosts 17 Bloomberg Terminals, beating even the finance-heavy duchies of Europe.
When the cardinals convene next week to elect a new pope, they’ll be forced to leave their smartphones and market data outside. Who will mind the terminals then? Perhaps they’ll rely on divine diversification for a week or so.
– Addison P.S. The U.S. Dollar Index notched its fourth consecutive weekly decline, as tariff turbulence and inconsistent policy signals chip away at investor confidence. Gold stayed firm above $3,300. Bitcoin notched briefly above $95,000, fueled by capital flight from fiat and a quiet return of the institutional whales.
We’ll analyze all three of these price trends tomorrow morning on Grey Swan Live! at 11 a.m. EST in light of the trade war with Mark Jeftovic. Paid members will receive log in by email just prior.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar