Rabu, 30 April 2025

The Markets Are Holding It Together... For Now

Don Kaufman here.

The markets are bouncing back from what I'd call a bad data deluge of bad data, you might be wondering... how the heck is everything still holding together?

GDP's contracting, inflation's running hot, and private jobs data is looking weak — yet the markets are rallying? It's enough to make you scratch your head and say, "What gives?"

Well, here's the thing: bad might just be the new good.

Why?

Because the worse the data gets, the more likely the Fed starts cutting rates — and that's got the market moving in mysterious ways. But don't get too comfortable. Volatility is lurking, and this market is far from stable.

Want to know what's really going on and what's ahead?

Then you've got to watch the full video.

Why the Fed's next move could turn into a "double-down dovish" disaster — and why it's not happening next week.
What's keeping volatility at "big boy backwardation" levels — even as markets rally back to unchanged.
The $150 move that's still sitting in the S&Ps this week — and why it's about to explode over the next two days.
How a single tweet about China sent the market into a momentary frenzy — and what it revealed about traders' hair-trigger reactions.
Why Friday's non-farm payroll report could be the final nail in the recession coffin — and how the Fed might prioritize jobs over inflation.
The hidden danger in the volatility futures curve: Why May is "way over" July, and what it's screaming about the next 21 days.
Are the markets bracing for a crapfest or a rally? My take on why the S&Ps are calm while volatility is raging.