📊 Bear Market

1) Trump's Terms Compared 2) Mag 7 Plunge 3) OpenAI Hits $300B Valuation and more!  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

April 06, 2025   |   Read Online In partnership with Happy Sunday! The past few weeks have been chaotic. Between headlines, market swings, and nonstop noise, I've been doing my best to separate signal from it all and send you only what actually matters. If you've found Carbon Finance helpful, here's one small ask: Share it with a friend who cares about investing. We're just shy of a major milestone, 30,000 subscribers, and every referral gets us closer. Here's your unique referral code to copy and share: 👉 https://www.carbonfinance.io/subscribe?ref=DwqDXt8SIM&_bhlid=7fecfad9eb7fd8bcdb529e945e11346b5897acdc As a thank you, you'll get a free 2025 Dividend Kings List sent straight to your inbox when they sign up. Thanks again for being part of this, I wouldn't be here without your support. Let's keep cutting through the noise together. Some key data bites from this week that you should know: JPMorgan raised recession risk odds to 60%. Tesla delivered 337K vehicles in Q1, below 408K estimated. US economy added 228K jobs in March, above 140K estimate. US unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, above 4.1% forecast. US employers cut 275,240 jobs in March. Republicans are considering new tax bracket for $1M earners. Visa bid $100M for Apple Card partnership. Apple has been fined $162M by France's antitrust regulator. Chipotle used 132M pounds of avocados in 2024. Circle filed for IPO, targeting up to a $5B valuation. Chinese companies placed $16B in Nvidia H20 chip orders in Q1 2025. RH said they are facing the worst housing market in almost 50 years. ChatGPT users generated over 700M images since last week. EU is preparing to fine Elon Musk's X more than $1B. In today's newsletter: 📈 OpenAI Hits $300B Valuation 💰 World's Richest Billionaires 📉 Trump's 1st Term vs 2nd Term 🧸 Magnificent 7 Bear Market 💵 Popular Stocks & Forward PE Let's jump right in. Partner With Us 📣 Together With RYSE Alexa, Ring, Nest, Apple, Roku… What do all of these smart home products have in common? They are must-haves in homes everywhere, and now there's one more to add to the list… Meet RYSE – the revolutionary way to automate your window blinds & shades. And here's why investors are taking notice: 📈 $10M+ in revenue and growing 200% year-over-year 🏢 In 127 Best Buy locations, with Home Depot launching in 2025 🔒 10+ patents protecting industry-leading technology RYSE is on track to be the next big name in smart home automation—and you can invest at $1.90/share before their next wave of expansion. Invest Today and earn up to 25% in bonus shares Past performance is not indicative of future results. Email may contain forward-looking statements. See US Offering for details. Informational purposes only. It gets lonely at the top. Just ask OpenAI. The company has officially closed a $40B funding round led by SoftBank, marking the largest private tech raise in history. That puts OpenAI at a $300B valuation, making it the third most valuable unicorn behind SpaceX and ByteDance. If public, it would rank among the 30 largest companies in the world. The company's latest version has been so popular, that Sam Altman said new releases would be delayed due to GPU capacity challenges. Nonetheless, OpenAI now stands far ahead of other AI unicorns. The next closest is Elon Musk's xAI, which recently merged with X at a combined valuation of $113B. The world's billionaire count just hit a record high. Forbes released its annual list this week, revealing 3,028 billionaires globally. Back in 1987, the list featured just 140. Collectively, today's billionaires are worth $16.1T in total, nearly $2T more than last year. The United States leads the way with 902 billionaires, followed by China with 516 and India with 205. Eight of the top ten richest individuals are from the U.S., with France's Bernard Arnault and Spain's Amancio Ortega rounding out the list. Liberation Day arrived this week. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a universal 10% tariff on all imports. Additional reciprocal tariffs were introduced, varying by country based on the size of the U.S. trade deficit with each one. The new policies pushed the effective tariff rate above levels last seen during the Great Depression. The announcement caught markets off guard, with tariffs far exceeding even worst-case expectations, sending indices sharply lower. Companies with heavy exposure to countries facing the steepest tariffs, such as China and Vietnam, were hit the hardest. These included notable names like Apple, Walmart, Target, Nike, and Lululemon. President Trump reasserted the use of tariffs to rebalance trade and bring manufacturing jobs back domestically. The universal 10% tariff took effect April 5th, with reciprocal tariffs starting on April 9th. The rhetoric began to shift slightly on Thursday, when Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate if "phenomenal offers" were made. Then on Friday, China escalated tensions, matching the 34% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods with a 34% tariff on U.S. imports. They also added 11 American companies to a list of unreliable entities, effectively barring them from doing business in China. But there was a glimmer of hope for bulls late Friday. Trump shared that Vietnam's leader expressed interest in cutting tariffs to zero, which sent shares of Nike, ON Holding, Lululemon, and others higher on the news. Some of the biggest names that helped drive markets higher over the last few years are now leading the decline. On Thursday alone, the Magnificent 7 lost a staggering $1.03T in collective market cap. All seven have now entered a technical bear market, each down over 20% from their 52-week highs. Tesla has been hit the hardest, down 51%, while Microsoft has held up best with a 23% decline. Despite the selloff, retail traders are buying the dip. JPMorgan reported $4.7B in retail stock purchases on Thursday, the highest in a decade. Buyers piled into names like Nvidia, while pulling back on Tesla. In an interview released Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented on the selloff, saying, "What's happening with the market, I'd say it's more of a Mag 7 problem, not a MAGA problem." As we've seen, plenty of popular names have taken sizable hits this week. But just because something drops doesn't mean it's cheap. The S&P 500 is down roughly 17% from its peak, yet its forward P/E still sits at roughly 19x. Meanwhile, the S&P 500's historical mean PE ratio hovers around 16x. To revert to that long-term average, the index would need to fall another 16%. So while the index looks expensive, how do individual stocks compare? As always, some names are trading below the market's valuation. Others, despite sharp drops, still sit well above it. Even comparing individual names to each other can yield surprising results. Nvidia, often labeled overvalued, actually trades at a lower forward P/E than Walmart, Netflix, and Chipotle. Forward P/E isn't everything, but it's a useful lens for comparing expectations and spotting disconnects, especially when factoring in future growth. 📣 Presented By RYSE Could RYSE Be the Next Ring? When Amazon bought Ring for $1.2B, Kevin O'Leary called it the biggest miss in Shark Tank history—a 66,756% return lost. Now, a new smart home disruptor is gaining traction: meet RYSE. Their patented technology automates existing window shades—no replacements needed. With $10M+ in revenue, 200% YoY growth, and distribution in 127 Best Buy stores (with Home Depot launching in 2025), RYSE is scaling fast in the $158B smart home market. Unlike Ring, you can still invest early—shares are just $1.90 each. Earn up to 25% in bonus shares. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Email may contain forward-looking statements. See US Offering for details. Informational purposes only. 💨 Court Escape. Zuckerberg is lobbying Trump to help Meta avoid an antitrust trial - WSJ 🏭 Infra Freeze. Microsoft is continuing to pull back or halt data center projects around the world - BB 💾 Chip Partnership. Intel and TSMC have agreed to form a chipmaking joint venture in US - R 💵 Reserve Risk. BlackRock's Larry Fink said rising U.S. debt could jeopardize the dollar's reserve currency role - YF ❤️ Flirt Bot. Tinder has released an AI chatbot to increase engagement - TNDR 🇨🇳 Investment Block. China is restricting companies from investing in US - BB 📚 Recommended Reading The Daily Recap isn't just your average daily investing newsletter. It provides fast, accurate, consistent, and reliable market updates delivered daily right after the bell. Trusted by over 750K followers across social media, my friend Evan is a trusted news source and makes staying informed effortless. The best part? It's completely free. Sign up now👇 Subscribe Here Courtesy of our paid partner, EarningsHub. Notable Companies Reporting Earnings Week of April 6th, 2025: I use EarningsHub to track earnings, estimates, and receive AI summaries of investor calls. If you'd like an all-in-one earnings tool and see all other companies reporting, I definitely recommend you check it out! View Full Calendar Here! Major Trades Published 3/30 - 4/5. Trades may be those of family members. [Source: 2iQ] Buys Dave McCormick (R) Company: Bitwise Bitcoin ETF ($BITB) Amount Purchased: $260K - $600K April Delaney (D) Company: Markel Corp ($MKL) Amount Purchased: $17K - $80K Debbie Dingell (D) Company: Walmart ($WMT) Amount Purchased: $15K - $50K Sells Dave McCormick (R) Company: The Goldman Sachs Group ($GS) Amount Sold: $1M - $5M Company: Paramount Global ($PARA) Amount Sold: $250K - $500K Vincente Gonzalez (D) Company: Tesla ($TSLA) Amount Sold: $100K - $250K Major Trades Published 3/30 - 4/5 Buys Edgewise Therapeutics ($EWTX) Insider: Peter Thompson (Director) # of Shares Purchased: 496,771 $ Amount: $10,000,000 SEC Forms: [1] Asana ($ASAN) Insider: Dustin Moskovitz (President, CEO, & Chair) # of Shares Purchased: 225,000 $ Amount: $3,242,250 SEC Forms: [1] Petco Health and Wellness ($WOOF) Insider: Joel Anderson (CEO) # of Shares Purchased: 849,541 $ Amount: $2,574,109 SEC Forms: [1] Sells Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) Insider: Nikesh Arora (CEO) # of Shares Sold: 788,396 $ Amount: $133,328,070 SEC Forms: [1] Robinhood ($HOOD) Insider: Vladimir Tenev ($CEO) # of Shares Sold: 750,000 $ Amount: $31,468,775 SEC Forms: [1] Apple ($AAPL) Insider: Timothy Cook ($CEO) # of Shares Sold: 108,136 $ Amount: $24,184,658 SEC Forms: [1] How was today's newsletter? 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