A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Wednesday April 9, 2025 | Swan Dive — April 9, 2025 Incredible Vanishing Guidance From the desk of Addison Wiggin
Welcome to the aftershock. Amid the dust of the latest round of tariff-driven market chaos, investors are starting to squint at what’s left standing. Overnight, futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were down another 1-2% each on sustained just inertia. No “dead cat bounce” – yet.
The reality is this: the U.S. has just executed the most dramatic shift in global trade policy in 80 years, and the world is still doing the math.
As of 12:01 a.m., President Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” are officially in effect. China announced an 84% tariff rate in retaliation pre-market. European and Japanese stocks didn’t wait; they’re already down.
At a private fundraiser, Trump declared the U.S. is pulling in “$2 billion a day” from its tariffs and teased new levies on pharmaceuticals. “Legendary,” he called them. Not mentioned? The $9 trillion loss in the stock market since Liberation Day – just last week.
Traders and economists agree things are legendary, but not in the sense the president intends. 🛳 Port Panic: Long Beach on Edge Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, warned that cargo volumes could fall by 20% in the second half of 2025. That’s not just a supply-chain issue — it’s a tell. Cordero said the biggest challenge now isn’t capacity or demand.
It’s uncertainty.
“Every country is getting hit,” he said, “and no one knows what’s coming next.” You can’t build a trade forecast when Washington changes the rules every week. 🛍️ “Panicans” Rush the Register With price hikes looming, Americans are making one last dash for affordable imported goods. Retailers report sharp increases in sales of electronics, household items, and everyday staples like olive oil — anything with a “Made in Not-America” label.
It’s like Black Friday without the doorbusters. Just daze and confusion. It may even be enough to juice GDP data, which could make a subsequent decline look worse.  A secret meeting just took place in Las Vegas. Inside exclusive sky suites at the Aria Resort, Wall Street executives gathered to behind closed doors. They aren't warning the public. They're positioning themselves for what's coming. By the time you see the headlines, it will be too late. But there's still time — if you act now. Watch this controversial video now, and send it to everyone you know. 🐉 Did Vance Really Say “Peasants”? Tariffs are particularly rugged on China – the ultimate adversary in Trump’s trade war. China tariffs now total 104%. Beijing said new tariffs on U.S. products will rise to 84%.
Making things more complicated, VP J.D. Vance stuck his foot in his mouth on Fox News.
In an attempt to summarize both Chinese-held U.S. debt and cheap gadgets shipped through the port of Los Angeles in one sentence, Vance said:
“To make it a little more crystal clear, we borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture.”
Now, it’s personal. In one sentence, Vance made it difficult for the Chinese to save “face” and back down from U.S. “bullying.” 📉 Bessent’s 3x3x3 Plan Is… Umn, Off to a Slow Start. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set out with three goals: 3% GDP growth, a 3% budget deficit, and 3 million barrels more of daily oil output. All three now look wobbly.
Economists have slashed growth forecasts well below 2%, tariffs are set to weigh heavily on consumer spending, and falling crude prices are dousing the enthusiasm of U.S. energy producers.
The deficit? Tariffs bring in money, sure, but tanked markets and lower earnings slash tax revenues. It’s a budgetary two-step — and Washington is out of rhythm. 💸 Treasurys: From Haven to Hazard What’s supposed to be the safest asset class in the world is… not. Bond prices are falling, yields are spiking, and hedge funds are quietly sweating. Analysts warn that the basis trade — a high-leverage bet on tiny Treasury price gaps — is once again reaching its breaking point.
If this unravels like 2020, it won’t be pretty. And the Fed may finally act – not to lower interest rates, but to bailout these funds before they blow up what’s supposed to be the deepest and most liquid market in the world. 📉 Forward Guidance: Exit, Stage Left The most revealing trend this week? Companies are pulling guidance like it’s going out of style. - 📉 Delta scrapped its annual forecast, blaming uncertainty in travel demand due to tariffs.
- ✈️ Virgin Atlantic is cutting transatlantic flights.
- 🛒 Walmart withdrew its first quarter operating income forecast, citing supply-chain uncertainty and pricing strategy shifts.
Next up? Everyone. Big retailers, big banks, big tech — any company with international exposure is suddenly allergic to forward guidance. And it’s not just because they’re scared of tariffs. It’s because they genuinely don’t know what the rules will be two weeks from now. Jamie Dimon’s already bracing JPMorgan for a rough ride — and they report Friday.
We’re calling it now: the next immediate Grey Swan event markets will be the dense fog when “forward guidance” vanishes. When earnings season kicks into full swing, and one CFO after another shrugs and says, “Pass,” Wall Street is going to start hyperventilating. More soon,
Addison P.S. Tomorrow, Thursday, April 10, at 11 AM ET, we’re hosting Grey Swan Live! (for paid members of Grey Swan Investment Fraternity.)
We’ll review our model portfolio amid the fog—including all five of our aggressive plays, which are up a combined 100% this year. We’ll discuss what’s working during this uncertainty, what we’re watching, and how to navigate a market full of vanishing signals. Watch your inbox for access. As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three.  (Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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