Dear Reader,
Goldman Sachs came out with a note yesterday saying we are clearly in an “event-driven bear market.”
They are 100% right about that.
The good news is that bear markets give us very special opportunities:
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Warren Buffett said, “a bear market is an investor’s best friend.”
I’ll explain why in a second, along with what to do if you are still fully invested in stocks.
Look, he’s 100% right – I have found this to be true through direct personal experience, too, not some abstract concept.
The bad news is, if you play it the wrong way you can get really hurt…
It could take years to recover from a bad mistake.
I’ve learned that lesson firsthand.
I have some years before I retire, but I know many of you are already retired and living off a nest egg.
So I can imagine how scary some of these headlines are.
They’d be terrifying, if you don’t know how to look at them.
One thing I’ve learned to do as a discipline during times like this is say to myself, “look, there’s going to be terrible headlines. We know that. All bear markets have terrible headlines.”
I have to remind myself terrible headlines mean cheap stock, as I talked about yesterday.
You simply don’t get cheap stock prices without terrible headlines.
That’s the way it works.
When the headlines are great, we see crazy high valuations for stocks.
Bad headlines = cheap stock prices.
This is GOOD NEWS.
If you are having a panic attack, if you are future tripping – imagining the world’s coming to an end… that you’ll be forced to work at the supermarket or live under a bridge, move in with your kids, please, right now…
Take a deep breath.
This is not our first rodeo.
Everything happening now has happened before.
There are very important lessons to take from that.
First, do not lose your cool.
There is a lot of crazy happening right now. I want you to remember that in good markets, great companies are very expensive.
In bear markets, you get a rare opportunity to buy the best companies in the world for the cheapest prices in years.
Imagine you’re a lion, waiting for the prey to come to you…
You’re hiding in the brush, just waiting for the deer.
Here it comes…
Closer… closer…
These are the stocks I am watching. Waiting for them to come down to my buy price – to sail across my strike zone.
When they do, I pounce. We pounce
Like a crocodile waiting for a deer to come to the water for a drink.
I’m right there under the surface waiting for my stock to hit my desired price and bang! I grab it.
That’s how I look at it. Scary headlines are part of the deal.
Steel yourself and wait.
I remember in the 2009 financial crisis watching CNBC…
“The greatest crisis since the Great Depression!”
Lehman Brothers goes out…
Bear Stearns…
Everybody’s going crazy.
The world’s coming to an end.
They’re calling for another Great Depression – you’re thinking food lines. It really screws with your mind.
So I pull the camera back.
I think about what I know…
1) American business does great over time.
Just look at a chart of the DOW over the last 100 years.
2) Bear markets give you great opportunities you just don’t get in normal markets – opportunities to buy the best companies in the world at cheap prices.
Remember – people are still going to eat at McDonalds.
Visa is still going to process transactions.
So is American Express.
People are still going to be scrolling on their Facebook accounts.
These things will happen no matter the headlines.
And 3) The most important thing – the importance of buying at the right time.
If you’ve looked at these companies that have gone bonkers…
If you’ve ever said, “gosh I wish I would’ve owned Nvidia at $10 or $20 a share”…
Bear markets give you a mulligan. A do-over.
You get a chance to own great companies for a lot less than they’re normally worth.
Now, if you already read Midnight in America…
Already got our bear market playbook and took the four steps we recommended…
You are in good shape.
You already have cash…
You’re already a member of Takeover Targets…
And you already have my “shopping list” of the 6 stocks to start buying now that I sent you Sunday night.
Now, if that’s not you…
My friend Josh just said to me, “what do I do now if I am all-in on stocks? I didn’t read your book – I don’t have a bunch of cash. I just have stocks.”
I’ll tell you what I told him…
I said, look, we’re money managers, right?
So, say to yourself, where’s the best place to invest $500?
If you put $1,000 in a stock that went from $10 to $5…
Ask yourself what’s more likely for you to get the highest return?
Is the stock you bought a year ago for $1,000 the very best place for the $500 you have left in it?
Or is the best place one of the companies we’re looking at now…
The Metas … the Visas… the Amazons of the market.
In a great market you don’t get chances like this.
You have to bob and weave to earn great profits.
How do you think we have a 40%+ average return at Behind the Markets?
It’s been a lot of bobbing and weaving – mid-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, this and that.
But, in a bear market? In a crash?
It’s really easy!
The best companies in the world come to you!
I’ll admit bottoms are tricky to get the timing right on picking your pricing – but buy prices are exactly what we specialize in here at Behind the Markets.
I waited till Palantir was $7 before I recommended it during the crash in 2022.
So, do you buy Visa at $489? Microsoft at $359? Or do you wait? What are good prices?
The good news is, it’s easy to know the prices to wait for because it’s a math game, as I explained to Takeover Targets members.
I also just put together a special bear market package I’ve never offered before, for late-comers. Here it is.
Remember, keep your cool.
Take a deep breath.
We will get through this.
You could do nothing right now and still be better off a year or two from now. I’m sure of it.
Right now, you could say to yourself, “this is just too much drama; I’m going fishing.”
As long as you don’t panic-sell at weak prices you will be fine over time.
A chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average proves that.
Don’t get wrapped up in the headlines.
I know they’re scary.
I know a lot of you have been future tripping – thinking of the worst-case scenario and thinking “what am I going to do?”
You’ll be fine.
You Will Be Fine.
America remains the greatest engine for wealth creation ever invented by humankind.
We will go back to creating wealth once this freeze-panic phase is over.
You can bet on it.
Capitalism drives greed.
Humans look for ways to make money.
We will get past this.
We will be fine.
Have a wonderful day.
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