Jumat, 31 Maret 2023

FedNow and CBDCs: The Path to Magic Money and a Brave New World of Finance

 
   
     
   
 
MAR 31 2023
 
 
FedNow and CBDCs: The Path to Magic Money and a Brave New World of Finance
   
DON YOCHAM
Money for Nothing
 

For years now Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short, has been lurking around the marbled halls of D.C.

Though I think Magic Money Thinking seems more on point.

“Magical” because the only constraint this theory places on spending is the willingness of politicians to exercise discipline should inflation rear its ugly head. Assuming they see it coming in the first place.

“Thinking” because slapping “theory” on a dumb thought doesn’t make it valid.

And with the nationalization of all banks a near certainty, I suspect this magical thinking will soon find a very willing constituency.

The fiscal and monetary sins of the past have finally blown up in the status quo’s face.

As the unfolding banking crisis plumbs never-before-seen economic and political depths, the flawed logic of MMT will provide the perfect intellectual cover for politicians of all stripes to placate the masses with astounding levels of panem and circenses.

 
 

But this too will inevitably fail.

Because MMT, like the debt-backed fiat system of today, is missing one critical piece.


Logical Fallacy of the Fiat Kind

The central claim of MMT is that a government can borrow whatever it wants because it only owes money to itself.

This is technically true.

I would even take it one step further and state that money doesn’t need to be backed by anything at all. It doesn’t need debt, gold, silver – anything – from which it derives value.

Let’s call this one-step-beyond-MMT monetary system the pure fiat solution.

In a pure fiat solution, a country would simply issue currency for delivery of specific services (say, being a soldier, providing medical services, supporting a legal system, etc.), skip the whole national debt part, and do its job without destroying the currency.

Indeed, the only difference between MMT and pure fiat is pretending debt is essential to the system versus admitting you don’t need it all.

Although, with MMT, bank’s still make easy money by keeping the whole charade debt-based.

In any case, the key to making any monetary system work is discipline.

For precious metals and Bitcoin, that discipline is inherent scarcity.

For the debt-backed fiat system that discipline is debt limits, whether imposed by congress, the markets, or an independent Federal Reserve.

For MMT and pure fiat, that discipline is congress.

But the core Fiat Logic Flaw – whether debt-backed, MMT, or pure – is assuming congress or central bankers can maintain that discipline.

Especially in the face of an existential threat brought on by abandoning discipline in the first place.

And that’s why the time is ripe for MMT.


The Path to Magic Money

The coming stagflation will inflict more economic pain than anything we’ve experienced in the U.S before. The voting subjects of the U.S. government will be desperate for any solution that seems easier than confronting reality.

This creates an opportunity for the political class to do the one thing it knows how to do; spin the Fake Prosperity wheel one more time.

Unfortunately, the only place left for that wheel to land is money for nothing.

We’ve had a minor form of money for nothing for decades through welfare payments.

Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation took it a step further.

The Child Tax Credit Payments that hit bank accounts directly each month during COVID, whether you were working or not, served as a trial run on how to extend payments directly from the U.S. Treasury Department to everyone.

The Federal Reserve’s recently launched FedNow service improves that reach, which I suspect is a launching pad for a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

And a CBDC is a perfect vehicle to implement the ultimate expression of money for nothing – productivity crushing Universal Basic Income (UBI) payments.

Toss in bank nationalization, which will make banks and bankers puppets of the political class, and the state will have everything it needs to exercise full discretion over every aspect of U.S. economic activity.

Think Free. Be Free.
 
LANCE IPPOLITO
Lance’s Options Scanner: You’ll Want Early Access To This!
 

I’m not sure if you saw this or not but a few days ago the call buyers went hard on BABA.

It started with back to back buys for $109K and $557K of call premium, which hit my scanner at 9:35 and 9:37 am.

 
 

Then, later that afternoon the call buyers hit again at 3:14pm for $271K worth of call premium.
 
 

All told, BABA saw over $900,000 dollars in call premium throughout the day. And if you know me, this is the type of activity my scanner was built to pick up because it often leads to opportunities like this.

In the days that followed the stock rocketed from $86 to $96, taking the options from $0.25 to $7.50.

That’s more than a 25X gain, as you can see here:
 

Now, this scanner has been central to my trading success for years. But right now, I’m offering early access to my scanner – and for a major discount.

Plus, I’ll be hosting free training sessions to show you how to use the scanner like I would.

So if you are interested, click this link right here

But you want to hustle because our first live training class is right around the corner.

No pressure. 

Lance Ippolito


The profits and performance shown are not based on any sort of typicality as they are cherry picked from my various research services. We make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money.
JEFFRY TURNMIRE’S MORNING MONSTER 🎥
New Quarter, New Opportunities!
 
 
 

Join me Monday at 9:15am ET for “Morning Monster” to discover the first movers to Q2.

Every day, I livestream what I see as the day’s big movers. I cover specific stocks I expect to move. I give you my rundown on all the major indices. Plus, I’ll take your requests to give whatever you want a good look.

Be sure to join me Monday, at 9:15am ET right here

Jeffry
   
 

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